Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05WARSAW3700
2005-10-26 15:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Warsaw
Cable title:  

POLISH GOVERNMENT COALITION TALKS BREAK DOWN

Tags:  PREL PGOV PL 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003700 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: POLISH GOVERNMENT COALITION TALKS BREAK DOWN

REF: WARSAW 3661 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin, reasons 1.4b,d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003700

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: POLISH GOVERNMENT COALITION TALKS BREAK DOWN

REF: WARSAW 3661 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin, reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: Coalition negotiations between Law and
Justice (PiS) and Civic Platform (PO) collapsed October 26
following PiS's decision to put forward its own candidate for
parliamentary speaker, who was quickly elected with the
support of radical opposition parties. PiS and PO leaders
were unable to bridge the differences between the two
center-right parties, as PO clung to its demands for shared
control of Polish internal security and resisted PiS's
efforts to veto PO's candidate for parliamentary speaker. PO
leader Donald Tusk declared immediately after the
parliamentary leadership vote that no further discussions
were possible with PiS, even as PM-designate Kazimierz
Marcinkiewicz (PiS) expressed hope that PO could be brought
back to the table. The deadlock between the two parties
stems from PO's ambivalence about its junior position
(including consideration that it might be better off in
opposition) and PiS's determination to thoroughly reform the
government (establishing a more fully de-communized "Fourth
Republic"). Despite PO allegations that PiS has effectively
cast its lot with radical parties such as the populist
Self-Defense (SO) and right-wing League of Polish Families
(LPR),we believe that PiS will seek to lead a minority
government if talks with PO cannot be revived. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Bickering between PiS and PO over positions in the
coalition government moved past the stage of choreographed
brinkmanship as late-night talks October 25 among
Marcinkiewicz, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Tusk, and
Deputy PM-designate Jan Rokita (PO) failed to reconcile their
competing demands. While PO once seemed prepared to cede the
interior and justice portfolios to PiS, in recognition of
that party's anti-corruption and anti-communist agenda, the
(somewhat unexpected) election of Lech Kaczynski (PiS) as
president changed those calculations. Since then, PO has
insisted that its role must be to oppose the "monopoly of
authority" PiS would otherwise enjoy and serve as a
"counterweight" to that power. Accordingly, PO leaders
demanded that the interior ministry -- considered by PiS the
real prize of the elections, after the presidency -- go to

Rokita. Another key sticking point was the parliamentary
speakership itself, which had been more or less promised to
PO. PiS, however, rejected PO's choice, Bronislaw Komorowski
(a sharp critic of PiS),suggesting that Tusk would be a
better choice. Rather than accept PiS's suggestion, PO grew
feistier, stubbornly (and some might say inexplicably)
insisting on Komorowski.


3. (U) With a parliamentary vote on the speakership set for
mid-day October 26, Marcinkiewicz made a new offer to PO that
morning, proposing that the interior ministry be split apart
and that Rokita head up a hived-off administration ministry.
This proved insufficient for PO officials, who rejected the
offer just prior to the parliamentary session and reaffirmed
Komorowski as their candidate for speaker. Once in session,
however, PiS surprised nearly everyone by nominating Marek
Jurek (PiS) as an opposing candidate (Jurek had been PiS's
choice for one of the deputy speaker positions). After a
relatively brief and subdued debate (with the outcome a
foregone conclusion),Jurek easily bested Komorowski, winning
the support of SO, LPR and the Peasants' Party in party-line
vote of 265 to 133 (the center-left SLD abstained).


4. (C) Tusk and Rokita held a press conference afterwards to
announce that PiS's nomination of Jurek signaled that no
further coalition talks were possible with PiS. Rokita
reviewed the work of the PO and PiS expert teams, noting that
a lot of progress had been reached on a common platform over
the previous few days, despite remaining differences. While
clearly stating that talks had broken down, both Tusk and
Rokita appeared to leave the door open somewhat, without
saying precisely what they might expect from PiS. For PiS's
part, Jaroslaw Kaczynski declared that he hoped that the PiS
and PO could still cobble together a compromise that would
permit them to govern in coalition, a position echoed by
Marcinkiewicz. Ryszard Schnepf, tapped by Marcinkiewicz to
be his principal foreign policy advisor, told us afterwards
that Marcinkiewicz and Rokita have forged a close
relationship, and that Marcinkiewicz is working feverishly to
put the coalition together. Both he and Rokita have faced
criticism from within their own parties, however, with
Marcinkiewicz charged with giving too much to PO, and Rokita
challenged by PO members who believe the party will fare
better in opposition rather than as the junior partner in a
government heavily dominated by PiS.


5. (C) Comment: If coalition negotiations with PO cannot be
revived, PiS must choose between forming a formal coalition
with Samoobrona, LPR and possibly PSL, and serving as a
minority government -- backed on the initial vote by those
parties. Despite allegations from PO and SLD leaders that
PiS has already signalled its course with the speakership
election, we believe that PiS would be loath to enter into a
formal arrangement with the radical opposition parties, whose
cooperation would be unreliable and come at a very high price
(including internationally). A minority government cannot be
an attractive option for PiS, either, especially given the
need to pull together support for every vote. At a certain
level, both PiS and PO recognize that they need each other,
and the next few days could see them to return to their
senses and the bargaining table.
ASHE