TUSK EDGES OUT KACZYNSKI IN FIRST PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS WARSAW 003578

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: TUSK EDGES OUT KACZYNSKI IN FIRST PRESIDENTIAL
ROUND

REF: WARSAW 3557 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) Summary: As predicted, Civic Platform's (PO's)
Donald Tusk prevailed in the first-round of Poland's
presidential election on October 9, and will face Lech
Kaczynski in a second round of balloting on October 23.
Despite only a three point margin over his rival, Tusk has
bounced in post-election polls that show him beating
Kaczynski by ten points. Election fatigue may explain the
meager turnout (less than 50 percent). Populist Andrzej
Lepper came in third, polling a surprising fifteen percent.
The next government will not be named until after the October
23 run-off. End summary.


2. Donald Tusk won the first round of Poland's presidential
election on October 9, beating Warsaw mayor and Law and
Justice (PiS) candidate, Lech Kaczynski, by a slender three
points. Tusk won 36.33 percent of the vote, just short of a
500,000 vote plurality over Kaczynski with 33.10 percent.
Andrzej Lepper of Self-Defense came in a surprsingly strong
third place, with 15.11 percent, and Marek Borowski, the
strongest center-left candidate, won only 10.33 percent.
Voter turnout was an all time low in post-communist
presidential elections, with less than 50 percent of eligible
voters participating.


3. Tusk and Kaczynski will face off in a second round
presidential election on Sunday, October 23. Two polls
released after the first round give a bigger electoral bounce
to Tusk, who outpolled Kaczynski by ten and twelve points,
respectively. Tusk won in ten out of sixteen provinces, with
a lopsided majority in urban areas and among higher educated
Poles.


4. Kaczynski won decisively in eastern and southern Poland,
an area that in previous elections was a stronghold for
former President Lech Walesa. Walesa, who has endorsed Tusk,
may be sent out to stump for Tusk in the coming weeks, but
questioned whether he would be effective. Walesa told Polish
radio that he was bitter over the low turnout, and the need
for an expensive, second round of elections.


5. Attention is now focused on the October 23 run-off, and
whether third party voters will turn out in large numbers for
either Tusk or Kaczynski. President Kwasniewski, widely
viewed as a quiet supporter of Tusk, hinted that he might
endorse a candidate before the second round. Center-left
voters are likelier to gravitate towards Tusk, more from
their dislike of Lech Kaczynski than from their enthusiasm
for the PO candidate. Fully seventy percent of those who
voted for Self Defense's Lepper are men. They are expected
to break disproportionately for Kaczynski, who once again
warned voters that PO and Tusk -- ironically, of course,
PiS's coalition partner in governing Poland -- are risky free
marketeers who want to tear apart Poland's social welfare
net.

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Whither the Coalition
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6. (SBU) PiS official Kazimierz Ujazdowski told DCM and
PolCouns on October 11 that although there is no question
that PO and PiS will form Poland's next government, if the
campaign descends into harmful personal attacks it will make
for more difficult cooperation between the two partners. On
October 10 PiS candidate for prime minister Kazimierz
Marcinkiewicz announced the broad outlines of the next
government, focusing on curbing public sector corruption and
"solidarity" with Poles who rely on the government's social
safety net. PO party leader Jan Rokita, the anticipated
deputy prime minister, said he was "eighty percent in
agreement" with the PiS plan. However, economic policy, and
how to maintain or dismantle that social safety net falls
squarely in the tricky twenty percent separating the coaltion
partners.


7. (SBU) The Sejm is likely to convene its first official
meeting on October 19, with Marek Belka continuing as a lame
duck PM until the new government is announced in the days
following the presidential run-off. PiS official Ujazdowski
told us that the Marcinkiewicz government will definitely be
in place by November 1 at latest. He reminded us that the
government begins to function as soon as it is named, and
does not need to wait for the Sejm confidence vote. The new
president will assume his office on December 23.

Hillas