PRESIDENTIAL PRE-ELECTION SNAPSHOT

UNCLAS WARSAW 003575

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL PRE-ELECTION SNAPSHOT

REF: WARSAW 3557 AND PREVIOUS


1. Summary: Civic Platform's (PO's) Donald Tusk remains in
the lead for the October 9 first round of the Polish
presidential race, with today's final pre-election polls
showing his edge over Law and Justice (PiS) challenger, Lech
Kaczynski varying from just one to eight points. Other
candidates fall well back in the pack. With Tusk's lead
narrowing and his support shy of the 50-percent mark, the
question remains whether the PO candidate will prevail in the
decisive second-round October 23. Deferring to presidential
politics, PiS candidate for prime minister, Kazimierz
Marcinkiewicz, will present his government's program on
October 10, and announce his cabinet formally on October 24.
End Summary.


2. PO standard bearer, Donald Tusk, is holding on to his
lead over PiS rival Lech Kaczynski, although one poll shows
that lead down to one slender point. Two other polls show
Tusk holding a six and eight-point lead over Kaczynski, with
Samoobrona's Andrzej Lepper following distantly with twelve
points and SdPL's Marek Borowski with eleven points.
Attention is centered on the second-round run-off between PO
and PiS, and who will gain the support of third party voters.
While the turnout is expected to exceed that of September 25
parliamentary election (just 40 percent),it may fall short
of percentages in previous presidential elections.


3. The Democratic Party's Henryka Bochniarz, told reporters
she would urge her supporters to vote for Tusk in the second
round. Those supporting minor parties in the first round may
well be the difference in determining whomever prevails on
October 23. Left-of-center voters may well gravitate towards
Tusk, whereas Self Defense voters may find Lech Kaczynski's
nationalism more appealing. Polls suggest that the second
round will be close, and two weeks has proved to be a long
time in Polish political life. Voter fatigue may be a
further issue, with Poles growing tired of a nearly endless
stream of newspaper articles on the candidates, their wives,
and even would-be presidential cats.


4. Tusk and Kaczynski squared off in a televised debate on
October 6 that most viewers called a draw. Both share a
common vision of the broad aspects of Polish foreign policy,
but differed in emphasis in some notable ways. On Russia,
Tusk emphasized the need to work closely with Germany and
within EU channels to facilitate Russia's integration with
the West. Kaczynski, however, said he would coordinate
closely with Washington on Russian policy. On domestic
policies, Tusk earlier on October 6 criticized PiS proposals
on health care that would increase government subsidies in
this sector.


5. PiS candidate for prime minister, Kazimierz
Marcinkiewicz, announced he will present the broad outlines
of the new government's program on October 10, and his
cabinet selections on October 24, the day after the second
round of the presidential election. While speculations about
ministers continues, final decisions will depend on the
outcome of the presidential race.
Ashe