TUSK STILL LEADS IN TIGHTENING PRESIDENTIAL RACE

UNCLAS WARSAW 003557

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: TUSK STILL LEADS IN TIGHTENING PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: WARSAW 3519 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) Summary: Civic Platform (PO) candidate Donald Tusk
remains the odds-on favorite to replace Aleksander
Kwasniewski as Poland's next President, although the race
with his principal rival, Law and Justice (PiS) candidate
Lech Kaczynski is tightening in the final days before the
October 9 election. Presidential campaigning and ongoing
political pot shots between the two parties are not
precluding negotiations between the two parties who are
expected to form a center-right coalition government.
Kaczynski benefits from the open support of the Solidarity
trade union as well as ultra right-wing Catholic Radio
Maryja. It is unlikely that Tusk will win an outright
majority in the first round, which will force a run-off on
October 23. End Summary.


2. (U) Donald Tusk, PO's presidential hopeful, is
maintaining his lead over Warsaw mayor and PiS candidate,
Lech Kaczynski, although some polls indicate his lead is
dwindling. Daily polls released to the press consistently
show Tusk on top, although his lead varies from three to
eleven points. PO was once hopeful that Tusk could win an
outright majority in the first round of balloting on October
9, but reflecting a more sober attitude after PO failed to
win the parliamentary elections on September 25, most expect
a run-off between Tusk and Kaczynski on October 23.


3. (U) Kaczynski's chances may improve with the active
support of the Solidarity trade union and the open
endorsement of Radio Maryja, a right-wing Catholic radio
station that normally supports the League of Polish Families
(LPR). LPR Presidential candidate Maciej Giertych dropped
out of the presidential race on October 4, without formally
endorsing Kaczynski. Giertych urged other minor candidates
to drop out of the race so that a second round could be
avoided, but so far no one has heeded his advice.


4. (U) Kaczynski continues to hammer away at Tusk with the
same litany of criticism that proved decisive in securing
PiS's come-from-behind victory, namely that Tusk is
interested foremost in economic policies that will hurt the
average Pole, making Poland "a republic for the rich." Tusk
has characterized Kaczynski as "too impulsive" and lacking
openness in conducting international relations. Tusk also
said that PiS has "less trust in the external world" and
"radical inclinations," warning that PiS should not have both
of the top jobs. Both Tusk and Kaczynski thus have neatly
flipped their positions from several weeks ago, when the
roles were reversed and it looked as though PO would dominate
both parliamentary and presidential elections.

--------------
Coalition Negotiations Move Forward Fitfully
--------------


5. (U) Preoccupation with presidential politics have slowed
but not stopped coalition negotiations altogether. PiS
candidate for prime minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, met
yesterday with PO candidate for deputy prime minister, Jan
Rokita. Rokita produced a letter containing a five-point
plan for PO's approach to the coalition, all quite broad and
short on detail. PO has called for the streamlining of
government by merging two ministries, thereby reducing the
cabinet from 14 to 12 ministries. Marcinkiewicz said the PO
letter constituted the basis for talks between the parties
for establishing the government's program.


6. (SBU) PO's Jacek Saryusz-Wolski remains widely expected
to be named foreign minister; one senior MFA official
reported that Saryusz-Wolski has the job locked up.
Bronislaw Komorowski (PO),meanwhile, once the front-runner
for defense minister, is now being mentioned as a possible
Marshal (speaker) of the Sejm. Were Komorowski to become
speaker, that would open up the defense slot, perhaps even
for a PiS candidate (among those names in play from PiS are
Radek Sikorski and Przemyslaw Gosiewski).
Ashe