POLISH PARLIAMENTARY RACE TIGHTENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003427

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLISH PARLIAMENTARY RACE TIGHTENS

REF: A. WARSAW 3393


B. WARSAW 3360

Classified By: Political Counselor Mary Curtin, 1.4b,d


1. (SBU) Summary: With just days to go before September 25
Polish parliamentary elections, latest opinion polls indicate
a tightening race between the front-running Civic Platform
(PO) and its likely coalition partner, the center-right Law
and Justice (PiS). In contrast to the inconclusive election
results in neighboring Germany this weekend, however, there
seems no question that these two parties will form the next
Polish government. Our visits to regions throughout Poland
suggest that PO and PiS should do well even in rural areas
and other traditional left-wing strongholds. PO presidential
candidate Donald Tusk is holding on to a strong lead over his
principal rival, PiS's Lech Kaczynski, as negotiations remain
underway to hold a televised debate between them, perhaps
even as early as September 23 -- an encounter that could, if
it takes place before the weekend, sway voters wavering
between the two center-right parties. End summary.

Close race between likely coalition partners
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2. (U) Latest polling data show that the race between PO and
PiS is narrowing in the final week of the campaign, with PO's
support in the 32-35 percent range, and PiS polling between
27 and 30 percent. One telephone poll conducted September 20
even gave a slight edge to PiS, showing the party leading PO
34 to 32 percent. The populist Self-Defense (SO) remains well
behind at 10-12 percent, the right-wing League of Polish
Families (LPR) at or below 10 percent and the governing SLD a
few points below LPR. In the presidential race, Tusk is
maintaining a double-digit lead over Kaczynski, 44-49
percent versus 29-30 percent. With Cimoszewicz's withdrawal
from the presidential race on September 14, the remaining
center-left candidate, SdPl candidate Marek Borowski, has
failed to pick up support from erstwhile Cimoszewicz
supporters. Some Embassy interlocutors suggest that many SLD
voters will simply sit out the election.

PO and PiS playing well throughout Poland
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3. (C) Embassy Poloffs have fanned out over Poland in the
past week to review the parliamentary and presidential
campaigns in Bydgoszcz, Lodz, Lublin, and Szczecin, and found
that support for PO and PiS appears strong in those regions
as well, some of them traditionally "red," or favoring the
postcommunist left. In Lublin, long a stronghold of the
Polish Peasants' Party (PSL),and more recently of SO and
LPR, Polcouns heard most regional officials predict success
this round for PO (particularly in Lublin itself) and for
PiS. Elzbieta Kruk, who heads the PiS list for Lublin,
reported that her party had an aggressive strategy to seek
votes in the rural areas, including recruiting candidates
from farm areas and addressing agricultural issues, while
noting that PO has focused its campaign on urban voters.
Lublin Archbishop Jozef Zycinski and Janusz Knap, Lublin's
editor for the national daily, "Gazeta Wyborcza," cautioned,
however, that SO and LPR will likely do better in the region
(and perhaps nationally) than opinion polls indicate.


4. (C) In Lodz, however, both Iwona Sledzinska-Katarasinska,
who heads the PO list, and Piotr Krzywicki, who heads the PiS
list, told Poloff that SO has lost some of its appeal with
rural voters because party leader Andrzej Lepper crafted SO's
electoral lists to stack them with his well-heeled cronies
and party financiers, leaving traditional party constituents
in the cold. PO and PiS expect to come in first and second
in Lodz, Poland's second-largest city, as well. Both
candidates pointed to high unemployment as the preeminent
campaign issue, though PO's focus was on attracting foreign
investment, and, with it, skilled jobs, whereas PiS merely
offered a litany of economic woes that befell the Lodz region
when its-once famous textile mills collapsed. In Bydgoszcz,
another longtime postcommunist stronghold, local officials
were also predicting a strong PO and PiS showing. PiS
senatorial candidate Radek Sikorski told Poloff that "people
who say Bydgoszcz is red haven't been out campaigning, and
haven't seen the reaction I've been seeing."


5. (SBU) Campaign officials in Szczecin, near the German
border, equally predict a strong showing for PO and PiS,
although the popular Economy Minister, Jacek Piechota, who is
widely credited with saving the local shipyard, is running on
the SLD ticket. SLD may edge out PiS for second place in the
city. SO standard-bearer Lepper is running from rural
Koszalin, outside of Szczecin, boosting his party's chances
in the surrounding countryside. As elsewhere, unemployment
is the biggest issue, with unemployment rates running as high
as 40% in regions where collective farming was widely
practiced.


6. (SBU) The PO and PiS campaigns have nearly overwhelmed
their competitors in terms of posters, banners and street
campaigners, particularly in the urban centers. Despite
having the most money to spend (in government subsidies based
on its 2001 results),the SLD has mounted a modest effort so
far. LPR, for its part, has focused most of its resources
and advertising in support of the party's parliamentary
campaign (promoting LPR leader Roman Giertych at the expense
of his father, presidential candidate Maciej),hoping for a
second-place finish that will generate momentum for the elder
Giertych's campaign. LPR is also the only party to host
traditional political rallies, featuring legions of fawning
and uncritical LPR supporters. PO and PiS repeatedly told
poloffs that such tactics remind most Poles of Communist-era
political gatherings, and thus fall flat with the average
voter. In the regions, the predominant campaign materials
are billboards and leaflets, with few candidates marshalling
the funds for television or radio commercials.

Kaczynski attacks, Tusk parries before possible TV debate
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7. (SBU) Down in the polls (although with Tusk's rise
arrested for now just shy of the 50-percent mark needed to
win in the first round),Lech Kaczynski has taken the
offensive, attacking PO's liberal economic policies as
socially destructive. This line was advanced by Kaczynski's
twin brother, party leader Jaroslaw, in a radio exchange
September 19 with PO PM-candidate Jan Rokita, in which
Kaczynski declared that PO's flat tax proposals would bring
Poland toward Third World levels of income distribution
(Rokita dismissed the charge as "complete nonsense"). For
his part, Tusk has maintained a careful response, seeking to
reassure voters of his presidential temperament and avoid
being drawn into a harsh exchange that could poison the
coalition.


8. (SBU) Challenged by Lech Kaczynski to hold a nationally
televised debate before Sunday's parliamentary vote, Tusk at
first demurred, but then agreed to meet September 23. Other
parties immediately lodged equal-time complaints with the
State Electoral Commission, however, casting into doubt
whether the debate will be held in that one-on-one format or
before this weekend's vote. If it does take place this week,
such an exchange is certain to highlight the contrasts
between the two candidates and their parties' platforms, and
could well prove decisive in determining which of the two
parties will emerge in first place in the vote for
parliament.
Ashe