SCENE SETTER FOR A/S MAURA HARTY'S VILNIUS VISIT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 VILNIUS 000087

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR CA A/S MAURA HARTY FROM AMBASSADOR MULL
AMCONSUL FRANKFURT FOR SALLY LINDOVER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CMGT CVIS CASC ASEC LH
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR A/S MAURA HARTY'S VILNIUS VISIT

REF: A. 2004 VILNIUS 382

B. 2004 VILNIUS 867

C. 2004 VILNIUS 1323

D. 2004 VILNIUS 1548

E. 2004 VILNIUS 1351

F. 2004 VILNIUS 1427

G. 2004 VILNIUS 1493

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - HANDLE ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: Maura, it is an honor and
delight to welcome you back to Lithuania, where we continue
to benefit from your outstanding work as one of this
Mission's "founding mothers." Since your last visit,
Lithuania has matured into an important partner for the U.S.,
with recent commitments to keep 100-plus troops on the ground
in Iraq at least through this year; to lead an open-ended
provincial reconstruction team in Afghanistan; and to promote
democracy in other post-Soviet societies. Its economy
remains one of the fastest growing in Europe. Despite
economic growth at home, however, the interest of many
Lithuanians in working abroad continues to cloud their
eligibility for visas and contributes to a refusal rate of
about 30 percent. Disappointment about this is a prominent
feature of all our interactions with the Lithuanian public,
and political leaders sometimes signal it could hamper their
ability to remain so pro-U.S. Your visit will provide an
excellent example of our commitment to dialogue on an issue
that is painful for some Lithuanians, while affording an
opportunity to underscore the legal constraints that bind our
visa policies.


2. (U) I'm especially eager to introduce you to our
outstanding entry-level and foreign service national staff in
Vilnius, who are collectively the best I've seen in my
career. They are looking forward to hearing your mentoring
thoughts and advice, both at the lunch for entry-level
personnel and at our Embassy town hall meeting. END SUMMARY.

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Political/Economic Review
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3. (SBU) Following the impeachment of former President Paksas
in April 2004 (ref A),Lithuanian voters elected former and
now current President Adamkus to become head of state in June

2004. He was sworn in July 2004 (ref B),and remains an
important anchor of Lithuania's strong pro-U.S. stance. A
former American citizen and regional director of the EPA for
the Midwest for many years, Adamkus is particularly grateful
for CA's success in breaking free his social security
pension, which he earned from his many years working in the
U.S. Adamkus remains the most popular political figure in
Lithuania - a status which his high profile role in mediating
the recent Ukraine crisis only bolstered.


4. (SBU) Parliamentary (Seimas) elections occurred in
October 2004, with the upstart Labor Party, led by
millionaire Viktor Uspaskich, securing the most seats in the
Seimas. Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas successfully
forged a coalition with the Uspaskich-led Labor Party (ref
C). Other coalition partners include Parliamentary Speaker
Arturas Paulauskas's New Union and Kazimiera Prunskiene's
Peasant Party. President Adamkus has taken an active role in
the formation of the cabinet, forcing the Social Democrats
and Labor to pull back several of their more controversial
candidates. Parliament confirmed Brazauskas as PM on
November 25, and confirmed the remaining members of the
cabinet on December 13. FM Antanas Valionis remains in the
top spot at the MFA, although Social Democrat Gediminas
Kirkilas replaced Defense Minister Linas Linkevicius.
Minister of Interior Gintaras Furmanavicius, who has
supervisory responsibility for migration issues, has signaled
his eagerness to work closely with us in resolving the
bureaucratic difficulties American residents face here.
Although controversy clouded his appointment, with
allegations swirling of his business dealings with an accused
embezzler, Lithuania's investigative service has cleared
Furmanavicius and there has been no additional evidence to
substantiate these allegations (ref D).


5. (U) Lithuania boasts the distinction of being one of the
fastest growing economies in Europe. Last year, the country
experienced 9% GDP growth, driven by domestic consumption and
investment. The growth rate slowed to 6.8% during the first
three quarters of 2004, largely due to external factors, lack
of investment, and a shortage of qualified labor, a majority
of which has headed westward in search of higher paying jobs.
Lithuania's economy still has a lot of catching up to do,
since Lithuania's per capita GDP, at 46% of the EU average in
2003, ranks second to last among new EU members. Substantial
inflows of capital from EU structural funds (over USD 1
billion over the next three years) should help boost the
economy further. The GOL also hopes to encourage additional
foreign direct investment. The unemployment rate is high but
consistently falling, dropping to 11.3% in the third quarter
of 2004. Lithuania joined the ERM II mechanism last year and
already meets the EU Stability pact criteria for the
introduction of the euro in 2007.

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Lithuania Active in the "Near Abroad"
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6. (U) Lithuania's accession to the European Union and NATO
opened new opportunities for the GOL to engage with its
neighbors to the east, most notably in the context of the
EU's "New Neighborhood" policy. Leveraging its historical
experience as part of the Soviet Union, Lithuania seeks to
assist former Soviet states transition to democracy and
integrate into European institutions such as the EU and NATO.

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Lithuanian-Russian Relations
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7. (SBU) Lithuania's relations with Russia have cooled over
the past few months, but remain driven by a pragmatic
recognition that the country needs to work with Russia on a
broad range of issues. The NATO air-policing mission is of
critical importance to the GOL, which remains concerned about
Russian aspirations to disrupt NATO relations with its newest
members (ref D). Russia continues to complain about
administrative difficulties with regards to Kaliningrad
transit procedures, while the GOL believes that the Russians
exaggerate and exploit any problems in an attempt to enlist
the support of other EU member states for a Russian "free
transit corridor" to/from Kaliningrad (ref E). The GOL is
urging the EU to hold a firmer line with Russia and is
concerned that other EU capitals may manipulate elements of
the Lithuanian-Russian relationship beyond EU and Lithuanian
control. Most recently, Russian attempts to establish May 9
as an internationally recognized day to commemorate the end
of World War II have disturbed the Lithuanians, since May 9
marked the beginning of the Soviet occupation of the Baltics
(ref F). Adamkus and the GOL are considering how best to
respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin's invitation to
the Lithuanian President to participate in May 9 celebrations
in Moscow.

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Consular Issues
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8. (U) Since Lithuania regained its independence in 1991,
over 500,000 Lithuanians have reportedly left the country,
many of them to the United States, where a sizeable
Lithuanian community already exists. The Lithuanian
government does little to discourage this exodus, as many
politicians are convinced that the majority of Lithuanians
will eventually return, betterand richer for their time spent
overseas. While the Lithuanian economy continues to grow
rapidly, not all groups benefit equally from the growth.
This factor, and the fact that most young Lithuanians desire
to work abroad despite their country's excellent growth
prospects, contribute to continuing emigration. These
factors will continue to drive post's NIV work, and refusal
rate, in the future. Immigration to Lithuania from both the
EU and non-EU world, for both legitimate and illegitimate
reasons, will continue to increase. Significant numbers of
illegal aliens continue to be apprehended at the
Lithuanian-Belarusian border and in the port of Klaipeda.
The influx of non-Lithuanians has already led to a small
increase in the number of TCN applicants seen at post. This
number will most likely increase further over the next few
years and will require greater vigilance in the screening of
NIV applications.


9. (U) NIV applications seem to have finally leveled off,
after a continuous decline since their peak in 2000. That
said, our NIV workload remains high. While EU membership has
opened up a new avenue for economic migrants seeking work,
Lithuanians continue to look to the United States for illegal
employment (ref G). Unfortunately, Lithuania's EU accession
has made it more difficult for us to ascertain a visa
applicant's periods of stay in the United States as border
officials no longer stamp the passports of returning
Lithuanians. As we still do not have easy and quick access to
DHS entry/exit records, Lithuanian entry stamps are often our
only sure means of detecting signs of illegal employment in
the United States, such as overstays or repeated six-month
stays.


10. (SBU) Despite the ongoing problem of visa abuse by
Lithuanian visitors, complaints about our visa system are
consistently the most prominent feature of all our contacts
with the Lithuanian public. Lithuanian political leaders
repeatedly note that pressure on this issue could ultimately
jeopardize the warmly pro-U.S. policies they pursue, and they
consistently press for Lithuania's accession to the Visa
Waiver Program. The request to become a VWP country is a
standard GOL talking point, although most officials will
relent when presented with the U.S. legal requirements and
the cold, hard numbers of Lithuania's B1/B2 refusal and
overstay rate. Lithuanian officials, particularly in the
MFA's Consular Department, will frequently admit in private
that VWP is not a realistic short-term goal.


11. (U) Lithuania has one of the largest per-capita
participation rates in the Work and Travel program in Eastern
Europe. Post processed 2,100 visas for the program in
FY2004, approximately 27 percent of all visas issued by post
in that year. This is a decrease from last year's totals,
due to competition from programs in the U.K. Organizers are
hoping to submit at least as many Work and Travel applicants
in 2005.


12. (U) Fraud continues to present a challenge, including
forged Burroughs and Teslin foil visas and imposter
travelers. There are a number of ongoing investigations in
Lithuania's second city of Kaunas involving fraudulent
documents and imposter passports and visas, with links to
counterfeit currency. Our Consular section works closely
with our RSO and local authorities on these investigations.
The level and increasing sophistication of fraud continues to
be the most demanding aspect of NIV work in Lithuania. We
are continually frustrated that these same rings after their
arrests are quickly back in business in some modified form.
The increased time spent in interviewing to screen for fraud,
new processing requirements, and the increase in the number
of applicants seen at post who were either refused change of
status by DHS, turned around or deported due to prior
violations, or who have serious hits in CLASS have increased
not only the complexity of the visa process but also the
overall time necessary to handle post's relatively small NIV
workload.

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ACS: Increasing with the popularity of Lithuania
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13. (U) Now that Lithuania is officially part of the European
Union, but with a cost of living still far below its Western
neighbors, tourism will continue to increase. More American
visitors, coupled with a likely increase in the number of
people who choose to settle in Lithuania, will further
increase the demand for section services, from routine
notarials to jail visits. The increase in Americans residing
in Lithuania has exposed a source of constant aggravation for
American citizens - obtaining a residency permit. The opaque
and inconsistent requirements to obtain a residency permit
have resulted in many American residents running afoul of the
Migration Office, including several Fulbright scholars and
students. We expect recent meetings with the Minister of
Interior and the head of the Migration Office to begin
alleviating some of the hang-ups the U.S. Fulbright scholars
and students have faced. We will ask you to work this issue
during your meeting at the Foreign Ministry.

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Preview of Your Visit
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14. (U) While your visit to Vilnius will be short, I believe
your program will send an important signal of our openness to
dialogue on the painful visa question, while allowing us an
important opportunity to note the constraints which bind our
policies. You will meet with Vaidotas Verba, Director of the
Consular Department, who will be keen to highlight our
excellent bilateral cooperation and discuss areas of future
cooperation. As requested, you will meet our Entry Level
staff over lunch at the DCM's residence. These great new
officers are looking forward to hearing your perspective on
the consular function, the latest news from the Department
and, above all, your advice on life in the Foreign Service,
themes on which you could continue at a town hall meeting
with Embassy staff. I will then host a small dinner for you
with Front Office and Consular Section staff. On a
professional and personal level, my colleagues and I are very
much looking forward to your visit.
MULL