RUSSIAN ENVOY'S SHARPE TONGUE AND THREATS TO CUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000326

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB AND EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREF LH RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN ENVOY'S SHARPE TONGUE AND THREATS TO CUT
OFF ENERGY INFLAME BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP

REF: A. VILNIUS 52


B. VILNIUS 104

C. VILNIUS 174

D. VILNIUS 219

E. VILNIUS 231

Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Gregory Bernsteen for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Russia's envoy to Lithuania has provoked
high-level outrage and calls for his expulsion with
sharp-tongued criticism of Lithuanians and thinly veiled
threats to interrupt the country's energy supplies. Most
local analysts believe the Russian's sudden high-profile
gibes - after 18 months of relative obscurity on the job -
reflect Russian pique at Lithuanian President Adamkus's
refusal to participate in World War II commemorative events
in Moscow on May 9, and aim to portray Lithuania to its
western partners as unduly provocative to Russia. Others
ascribe the outbursts to the Russian's mercurial temperament
and maintain that bilateral relations are fine. It remains
to be seen whether Lithuania will play along with the former
scenario and ratchet up tensions more by expelling Tsepov.
END SUMMARY.

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A Rising Tension
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2. (U) Russian Ambassador Boris Tsepov in a front page
interview in Lithuania's second-largest newspaper
"Respublika" on March 24:

--Sharply criticized Lithuania as "not a country, but a den
of scandalmongers," where "everyone is dirty ... and happy
that none is clean."

--Contended that "anti-Russian spice is everywhere, and
Russians are blamed for everything."

--Noted Lithuania's precarious dependence on Russian energy
resources and warned that Russia could sell to whomever it
pleases.

--Scoffed that Lithuania behaves immaturely, and sees the
hand of Moscow and the KGB everywhere.


3. (U) The Tsepov interview prompted a firestorm of criticism:

--President Adamkus stated that Tsepov's comments were "not
fully in line with diplomatic ethics." The President's
foreign policy advisor Edminas Bagdonas said Tsepov had gone
"over the top."

--Speaker of the Parliament Arturas Paulauskas said that the
comments "do nothing to improve our relations."

--Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas remarked, "He is
Russia's official, not ours, so let Russia assess him."

-- Foreign Minister Valionis and others in the MFA have
publicly questioned whether Tsepov's statements require him
to depart. MFA Undersecretary Albinas Januska commented that
he did not see how the Russian diplomat could continue his
work in Lithuania.

The interview also jammed Lithuania's heavily politicized
internet chat rooms with hundreds of comments, some agreeing
with Tsepov's charges, but many calling for Tsepov's
immediate expulsion.

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A Worsening Climate
--------------


4. (U) The storm surrounding Tsepov's interview is the latest
in a series of incidents bedeviling Lithuanian-Russian
relations in the wake of Adamkus's March 7 decision to miss
the May 9 festivities in Moscow:

-- A Russian radio station requested entry permits for twelve
journalists, more than any local radio staff. (Lithuania
approved four.)

-- Lithuania's Education Ministry has raised concerns about
allegedly unlicensed private police training facilities under
Russian ownership operating in Lithuania. The media
insinuated that these academies, which turn out hundreds of
graduates annually, may be a Russian mechanism to obtain
influence.

-- Seimas Speaker Arturas Paulauskas publicly accused Russian
diplomats of attempts to gain information about Lithuania's
political processes and the official decision-making about
Lithuanian attendance at the May 9th celebrations in Moscow
from members of parliament. Officials, including opposition
leader and Conservative Party member Andrius Kubilius and the
State Security Department, characterized Paulauskas' remarks
as overwrought, but the press insinuated parallels between
the diplomats in question and certain of their colleagues
whom Lithuania expelled for inappropriate behavior. (NOTE:
Lithuania expelled three Russian diplomats last year, and
nine during the last two years.)

-- Tsepov described Lithuania's leading daily as "yellow
press" and called the editor "uncivilized" after journalists
taunted him for failing to anticipate Adamkus's decision not
to attend the May 9 events. Foreign Minister Valionis
sharply and publicly rebuked Tsepov's criticism of the
newspaper, telling him to worry more about press freedom in
Russia and threatening further expulsions of Russian
diplomats.

-- Russian Foreign Ministry's website said that Sergei Lavrov
had chastised FM Valionis for Adamkus's refusal to travel to
Moscow for May 9. Valionis disputed this interpretation and
maintains that the conversation was cordial, and the
offending report soon disappeared from the website.


5. (U) These episodes occurred against the backdrop of a
revelation of a list of pre-independence Lithuanian KGB
reservists and the subsequent parliamentary investigation of
three public figures on the list, including Foreign Minister
Valionis and the head of the National Security Service
(VSD)(refs A and B). The publicity surrounding the
parliamentary conclusions raised questions about Russian
influence on Lithuania's political process. Although
Parliament (Seimas) accepted the commission's findings that
the FM and Security chief had not collaborated with the KGB,
one parliamentarian, Petras Grazulis, has begun a hunger
strike, demanding the FM and VSD chief resign.

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Provocation by Design?
--------------


6. (C) Many analysts believe Tsepov's anti-Lithuanian
broadsides reflect a calculated Russian campaign to provoke
an intemperate Lithuanian response. The Prime Minister's
foreign affairs advisor, Darijus Pranckevicius, told us that
there was no doubt that the Ambassador Tsepov was acting
under instruction to increase pressure on Lithuania following
Adamkus's decision not to go to Moscow for the May 9
celebrations. He further suggested the Russians aim to show
Lithuania and the other Baltic countries in their worst light
and to test how far they can push Lithuania before provoking
a strong reaction.


7. (C) Others ascribe Tsepov's provocative outbursts as more
in keeping with his own personal volatility. (Note: Tsepov
is known on the local diplomatic circuit for emotional
outbursts. End Note.) The head of the Russia Division at
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Arunas Vinciunas told us that
he does not see an overarching, Moscow-directed strategy
behind Ambassador Tsepov's recent comments. He described the
ambassador as "arrogant and prone to stupid comments," and
proffered the theory that the ambassador expects Moscow to
recall him shortly, and is speaking out of frustration.
Vinciunis mentioned that he has good working-level relations
with Russian officials, with the example that in three hours
of meetings today with Russian diplomats, the topic of the
Ambassador's comments did not come up. He predicts that
after May 9, much of the current tension will ease.

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Comment: More to Come, Unfortunately
--------------


8. (C) Concerns that Lithuania-Russia relations would
deteriorate once Adamkus refused to attend the May 9th
ceremonies in Moscow are proving accurate. Moscow appears to
be engaging in a calculated barrage to damage the credibility
of the Baltics, Lithuania in particular. Lithuania's dormant
anger against the Soviet occupation and constant undercurrent
of worry about Russia's influence makes them a willing foil.
While there is also a current of pragmatism in Lithuania's
relationship with Russia (ref C),it seems likely that the
GOL's ultimate reaction to Tsepov's tirade will go beyond
rhetorical denunciations - we wait to see how far.
Mull