Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05VILNIUS1093
2005-10-12 14:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Vilnius
Cable title:  

CODEL KOLBE AND BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION DISCUSS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR BO LH 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 001093 

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO LH
SUBJECT: CODEL KOLBE AND BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION DISCUSS
STEPS FOR CHANGE

REF: MINSK 1205

Classified By: Embassy Minsk Pol-Econ Chief Derrick Hogan for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 001093

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO LH
SUBJECT: CODEL KOLBE AND BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION DISCUSS
STEPS FOR CHANGE

REF: MINSK 1205

Classified By: Embassy Minsk Pol-Econ Chief Derrick Hogan for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The congressional delegation led by
Congressman Jim Kolbe expressed unwavering commitment to a
diverse group of Belarusian opposition leaders and pledged
its continued support for democratic change in Belarus. Two
U.S. NGOs, the International Republican Institute and the
National Democratic Institute, organized the October 10
meeting. The Belarusian delegation, which comprised leaders
of the 10 democratic coalition, independent media, and human
rights NGOs, strongly encouraged the congressional delegation
to increase U.S. financial assistance to Belarusian
democratic forces, particularly in the area of print media.
The Belarusian opposition leaders were cautiously optimistic
about the prospects for democratic change in the near future,
with the 2006 presidential elections serving as the
catalyzing event. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The local representatives of NDI and IRI organized
a meeting on October 10 for CODEL Kolbe to express continued
U.S. support for the Belarusian opposition movement and to
discuss prospects for democratic reform in the country.

U.S. Participants
--------------

-- Congressman Kolbe (R-AZ)
-- Congressman Sabo (D-MN)
-- Congressman Carter (R-TX)
-- Congressman Moran (D-VA)
-- Congressman Rehberg (R-MT)
-- Congressman Shimkus (R-IL)
-- Trygve Olson, local representative of U.S. NGO IRI
-- David Hamilton, local representative of U.S. NGO NDI
-- Ambassador Mull

Belarusian Participants
--------------
-- Anatoly Lebedko, head of the opposition United Civic Party
(UCP)
-- Sergey Kalyakin, head of pro-democracy Belarusian Party of
Communists
-- Svetlana Zavadskaya, wife of disappeared journalist and
co-founder of NGO We Remember
-- Victor Karnienko, head of human rights NGO Civil
Initiatives
-- Petr Martsev, general manager of independent newspaper BDG
-- Yuras Hubarevich, youth leader in Belarusian Popular Front
(BPF)
-- Valentina Sviatskaya, leader in BPF

U.S. Ready and Willing to Help
--------------



3. (C) Congressman Kolbe congratulated the members of the
Belarusian opposition for their courage, bravery, and
commitment to democratic change in Belarus. He also
congratulated those members representing the 10 democratic
coalition for a successful democratic convention October 1-2
in Minsk (reftel). Kolbe noted the democratic convention
represented an important step forward in the consolidation of
democratic forces ahead of the 2006 presidential elections.
He also thanked IRI and NDI for facilitating the unification
of opposition forces and stressed the United States was
committed to providing the necessary support to the
opposition. Congressman Shimkus added the Belarusian leaders
should take full advantage of the meeting to articulate the
areas where the USG can provide more financial support for
the opposition, pointing out that several congressmen present
in the meeting sit on the U.S. House Appropriations
Committee.

Best Approach to Lukashenko: Engagement or Isolation?
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Congressman Shimkus asked Belarusian civil society
leaders about how to support democratic change in Belarus.
Lebedko, runner-up candidate in the October 1-2 democratic
congress, emphatically stated that engagement with Lukashenko
is the wrong approach. He argued that the Belarusian
president will use any attempt by the West to mend ties with
his government to his own advantage. Independent newspaper
general manager Martsev supported Lebedko's views. Martsev
noted that continued discussions over whether engagement is
the correct strategy imply there is still some doubt about
the existence of a dictatorship in Belarus. According to
Martsev, such discussions should cease because the issue is
clear, "there is a real dictatorship in Belarus."


5. (C) Lebedko stressed throughout the meeting that the
international community should adopt a tougher position
vis-a-vis Lukashenko and even encouraged the United States to
pressure the EU to apply economic sanctions against the
Lukashenko regime. The UCP leader noted that limiting or
cutting off trade between the EU and Belarus would seriously
affect the stability of Lukashenko's regime, although Lebedko
acknowledged several EU member states would also be adversely
affected by such a strategy.

Lack of Access to Independent Information Key Impediment
-------------- --------------


6. (C) All members of the Belarusian delegation noted that
the regime's tight control over media access represented the
most serious obstacle to democratic change in Belarus.
Martsev reminded the congressional delegation that the
Lukashenko regime has established absolute control over
television and radio media, and has taken drastic steps to
eliminate independent print media. According to Martsev,
only six national and 20 regional independent newspapers
currently exist in Belarus, and excessive GOB fines and
restrictions are forcing these remaining newspapers to shut
down or reduce operations. Consequently, most Belarusians
possess little information about the opposition, and the
information they do possess has largely come from state media
sources.

But Print Media, Not External Broadcasting, Is the Answer
-------------- --------------


7. (C) When asked about the possibility of broadcasting
independent information about Belarus into the country from
neighboring countries, the Belarusian civil society activists
expressed serious doubt that such initiatives would be
fruitful in the short term. Kalyakin, pro-democracy
Communist leader and likely campaign manager for 10
coalition presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich,
maintained that television and radio projects should be
pursued only after the 2006 elections. He argued that
external broadcasting requires huge sums of financial and
technical resources and, equally important, there was
insufficient time for external broadcasting to have a real
impact on the elections.


8. (C) Kalyakin and others encouraged the congressmen to
channel more resources to supporting independent print media.
The communist leader emphasized increasing U.S. direct
assistance to independent newspapers and providing the
opposition with the resources to purchase printing machines
and printing paper. The printing equipment would allow the
10 coalition to print flyers and bulletins that would be
used in the door-to-door voter outreach campaign.

Rigged Elections to Serve As Catalyst for Change
-------------- ---


9. (C) Kolbe asked for an assessment of the possibility for
transparent elections in Belarus and the prospects for a
victory by an opposition candidate in the elections.
Kalaykin and Lebedko noted it was highly unlikely the
upcoming presidential elections would meet international
standards. That said, the Belarusians stressed their focus
is on reaching out to the voters in a door-to-door campaign,
familiarizing the electorate with the opposition platform and
convincing voters to vote for democratic change. Lebedko was
optimistic the opposition could persuade voters to join their
camp. He noted that recent opinion polls in Belarus indicate
65 percent of the population is in favor of democratic change
and 17 percent said they are "ready to defend their vote" in
the event domestic and international observers detected mass
fraud in the elections.


10. (C) Karnienko, NGO leader and close advisor to 10
coalition candidate Milinkevich, agreed with the opinion poll
data, but stressed it remained unclear whether those in favor
of democratic change are willing to vote for the opposition
candidate. Karnienko believes the popular rejection of
rigged presidential elections in 2006 will largely be a
function of the extent to which the opposition is successful
in galvanizing popular resentment against Lukashenko prior to
the elections.

Comment
--------------

11. (C) The Belarusian opposition leaders provided the U.S.
congressmen a cautiously optimistic assessment of the
prospects for democratic change in Belarus. The
pro-democracy activists presented a clear message that unity
of forces in the opposition camp, strong voter support, and
continued U.S. and EU assistance are the necessary
ingredients for Lukashenko's removal from power. The
political and ideological diversity represented in the
Belarusian delegation only served to reinforce that message.


12. (U) Congressman Kolbe did not have an opportunity to
clear on this cable.
KELLY