UPDATE ON SU-27 CRASH INVESTIGATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 001017

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2015
TAGS: MOPS PGOV PINS PREL RS UP LH
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON SU-27 CRASH INVESTIGATION

REF: A. VILNIUS 977


B. VILNIUS 993

C. SECSTATE 176092

D. VILNIUS 1012

Classified By: Political/Economic Officer Alexander Titolo for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The GOL's leadership continued to take a softer line
on September 26 on the crash of a Russian Su-27 in Lithuania
on September 15 (ref A). A senior briefer stated today that
the GOL has "no evidence" that Russia intentionally violated
Lithuanian airspace. Work on decoding the black boxes is
proceeding with the assistance of technical experts from
Ukraine. The GOL does not foresee a formal request to NATO
for assistance. The Russian pilot remains in Lithuania, but
the Government is working intensively to release the pilot
promptly. The head of the crash investigation said Russian
observers are present for all stages of the inquiry, but that
the Russian Government has not been "fully cooperative."
Senior Government officials stated that this incident should
raise serious concerns for Lithuania, NATO, and the EU about
dangers stemming from the threadbare state of Russia's
military, poor coordination of Russia's armed exercises near
Lithuania's borders, and careless Russian actions such as
switching off transponders in areas used by civil aviation.
They promised to raise the issue for appropriate discussion
in NATO, and possibly in the NATO-Russian Council. End
Summary.

STATUS OF THE INVESTIGATION AND PILOT
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2. (SBU) MOD Undersecretary Renatas Norkus, in a September
26 briefing to NATO and EU ambassadors, echoed the earlier
public statement of Defense Minister Gediminas Kirkilas (ref
D) that evidence collected so far indicates that the crash of
the Su-27 in Lithuania was an accident. (Note: This marks a
considerable soft-peddling of Kirkilas's earlier charge that
the incident could have been a deliberate provocation.
Kirkilas told the Ambassador September 23 that he had done so
to improve the atmosphere with Moscow. End note.) Norkus
said that work on the black box is underway with the
assistance of four experts from Ukraine. (The GOL originally
requested French assistance, but turned to the Ukrainians
while the French Government was still considering its
response.) Brigadier General Vitalijus Vaiksnoras, head of
the commission appointed to investigate the cause of the
crash, told the ambassadors that the information on the black
box has been successfully retrieved, and the experts are now
working to translate the data into useable information.


3. (C) The Ambassador asked the GOL briefers about the
status of the investigation and the anticipated timing of the
release of the Russian pilot. Vaiksnoras tied the pilot's
status to the investigation, saying that at the current rate
of progress, the inquiry should finish soon. He pointed out,
however, that the investigatory commission is still awaiting
information from the Russian government, which ties the fate
of the pilot to the level of Russian cooperation. (GOL
leaders tell us privately that they are eager to remove the
pilot's situation as a source of contention, and expect the
Prosecutor General to agree to release the pilot within a
matter of days.)

NO REQUEST FOR NATO HELP FORTHCOMING
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4. (SBU) The Acting Director of the MFA's Security Policy
Department Algis Dabkus told the assembled ambassadors that
NATO has been "very supportive" of Lithuania, and that the
GOL had especially appreciated the Ambassador's September 23
statement of support. Vaiksnoras said that the GOL has
received all the assistance it needs from its NATO allies,
and does not plan to formally request NATO technical
assistance. (That does not mean, however, that the GOL will
not want to pursue "lessons learned" exercises in appropriate
NATO fora.) Specifically, Norkus said Lithuania would be
eager for discussion of the incident within NATO and possibly
later in the NATO-Russia Council.

RUSSIA "NOT COOPERATIVE"
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5. (SBU) All three briefers made note of the lack of
cooperation they perceive from the Russian side.
Specifically, they said that Russia has refused to explain
why missiles and radioactive material were on the plane.
Vaiksnoras said that the GOL had asked the Russians on or
about September 19 a number of questions and the Russians had
so far refused to respond. Norkus expanded on this point to
highlight GOL security concerns that this event has brought
to the fore. He cited the poor state and chaotic
organization of Russia's armed forces in general and specific
concerns about the conduct of armed exercises so close to
Lithuania. Dabkus said that Minister Lavrov called Foreign
Minister Valionis to say that the intergovernmental
commission that Russia canceled last week in response to
Lithuania's actions in this case should be rescheduled for
the "nearest future."

COMMENT
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6. (C) GOL officials are easing their foot off of the
rhetorical pedal in order to calm the diplomatic waters. Our
success in eliciting supportive comments from NATO
headquarters about the potential for follow-up reviews of the
incident and our supportive comments in the press here helped
to give the GOL room to defuse the confrontation with Russia.
The basic concerns of the national security establishment
here about what the incident says about Russia's intentions
and capabilities, however, are as strongly felt as ever.
MULL