SPO WINS ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN VIENNA ELECTIONS

UNCLAS VIENNA 003431

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/AGS (VIKMANIS-KELLER)

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: SPO WINS ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN VIENNA ELECTIONS

REF: (A) Vienna 3329; (B) Vienna 3269

THIS MESSAGE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.


1. (SBU) On October 23, The Social Democrats (SPO)

increased their absolute majority of seats in the state

legislature of Vienna (Austria's most populous state),

but narrowly missed winning over 50 percent of the

popular vote. In the last of three state elections held

in October, Chancellor Schuessel's conservative People's

Party (OVP) and the Greens also posted modest gains. The

Freedom Party (FPO) lost support, but exceeded

expectations by capturing nearly 15 percent. The big

loser was Joerg Haider's FPO spinoff Alliance Future

Austria (BZO),which came in last, after the Austrian

Communist Party (KPO).


2. (U) vote pct. (change from 2001),seats (change)

SPO 49.0 (+2.1) 55 (+3)

OVP 18.8 (+2.4) 18 (+3)

FPO 14.9 (-5.3) 13 (-8)

Greens 14.7 (+2.2) 14 (+2)

KPO 1.5 (+0.8) - -

BZO 1.2 (-) - -

Electorate: 1,142,126 Voter Turnout: 60 Percent


3. (SBU) The relatively low voter turnout worked to the

SPO's disadvantage. Social Democrat voters may have been

less motivated because of the apparent certainty of a

win. The OVP scored with attractive candidates and

attacks against SPO dominance in Vienna. The FPO's sharp-

edged anti-immigrant tone helped minimize its losses.

The Greens, hampered by lack of a clear line, failed to

meet their goal of coming in second. The BZO suffered

another state election debacle, with a result below its

current national ratings of 2-3 percent.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: The October election results weaken

the BZO nationally. In particular, there could be an

erosion of BZO strength in parliament if its deputies

start to drift back to the FPO. With his comparatively

good performance in his home state of Vienna, national

FPO chairman Karl Heinz Strache has consolidated his

position and increased the FPO's chances of becoming the

sole right-of-center survivor of last spring's FPO/BZO

split. The BZO's prospects of entering parliament in

national elections in fall 2006 appear cloudy at best.

Van Voorst