AUSTRIA EAGER FOR CLOSE COORDINATION ON BELARUS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L VIENNA 003402

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB AND EUR/AGS - VIKMANIS-KELLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015

TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM EAID PGOV BO AU EUN
SUBJECT: AUSTRIA EAGER FOR CLOSE COORDINATION ON BELARUS,


LOOKS TOWARD EU PRESIDENCY

REF: STATE 188900

Classified By: Economic-Political Counselor Gregory E. Phillips. Reaso

ns: 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Austria welcomes the U.S. approach to

promote democracy in Belarus, and looks forward to close

coordination during its EU Presidency in the first half of


2006. It will be necessary to identify the targets for

outreach, with a focus on opinion-leading elites. An

approach to the economy could take account of the impact of

Russian WTO accession. The views of Russia and of Belarus'

neighbors would be important to the implementation of our

strategy. Continued dialogue with Belarus in certain fora

would help, but pressure would be key. End summary.


2. (U) EconPolCouns delivered reftel points on October 19 to

Hanns Porias, the Austrian MFA's Assistant Secretary-level

Director for East and Southeast Europe.


3. (C) Porias strongly welcomed the U.S. initiative. He

said Belarus has been a point of focus in Brussels, and the

General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) would

likely address Belarus soon. Porias said he had participated

in a troika meeting in London on Belarus, a meeting in which

Ukraine also participated. Belarus would be a very important

issue during Austria's EU Presidency during the first half of


2006.


4. (C) Porias applauded the strategy of expanding outreach

to Belarusian society. He noted that a key question would be

whom to target. Now, for the first time, there was a single

candidate to symbolize the opposition, in the person of

Aleksandr Milinkevich. But the issue remained of how to

reach the right circles in Belarus. Porias argued that it

was important to reach influential elites in Belarusian

society -- not the top layer, but those just below them, who

were important opinion leaders. Porias expressed skepticism

about the degree to which Belarusian NGOs could contribute to

the process of outreach. The fact that NGO leaders could

travel freely was a cause of suspicion -- "either they're

coopted or they're infiltrated," he said.


5. (C) The economy was another area of focus. Porias said

that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had been

relatively successful in buying a certain level of popular

support by propping up the economy. In this connection,

Porias said he was interested in discussing the consequences

of Russian membership in the World Trade Organization for the

Belarusian economic situation.


6. (C) The views of Belarus' neighbors was important, and

Porias agreed with the U.S. approach in this regard. He said

Russia's interest was primarily in stability, and he was

starting to hear talk among Russian policy makers that

Lukashenko may not, after all, be the only hope for stability

in Belarus. It would be important to maintain a close

dialogue with the Russians, he said. Porias noted that the

personal relationship between Lukashenko and Russian

President Vladimir Putin was not terribly good -- in fact,

Lukashenko had a much better personal relationship with

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. Porias agreed with

our view of the need to engage with countries which neighbor

Belarus and which have gone through a transition to

democracy, such as Ukraine and Poland.


7. (C) Porias argued for the Austrian position that it is

important not to isolate Belarus, which would only give

Lukashenko free rein to continue his anti-democratic policies

inside the country. Instead, if was important to maintain a

process of dialogue. Porias pointed to the Central European

Initiative, of which Belarus is a member, as a possible forum

for such dialogue. That said, Porias was no Pollyanna on

Lukashenko -- he agreed that the main thrust of a Belarus

strategy had to be pressure for a democratic transition.

van Voorst