IRAN EXILE GROUP SAYS NEW REGIME DETERMINED TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 002684

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR NP/MNA, NEA, EUR/PGI, EUR/ERA, EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: KNNP MNUC PREL PGOV ETTC IR AU UNSC EUN
SUBJECT: IRAN EXILE GROUP SAYS NEW REGIME DETERMINED TO


BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS

REFS: A) VIENNA 2254 B) VIENNA 2270

This message is sensitive but unclassified.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Paris-based National Council of

Resistance of Iran (NCRI) claimed at an August 8 press

conference in Vienna that the new Iranian regime was

determined to continue its nuclear program "to build the

bomb." An NCRI official argued that the "cat and mouse

game" with the IAEA and Western negotiators was designed

to buy time and Western concessions for the new regime.

He called for immediate referral of the dispute to the UN

Security Council. The official quoted what he said were

internal Iranian government documents to support his

allegations. Two exiled Iranian nuclear experts who

attended the press conference underlined the NCRI's

accusations against the new Iranian regime. End Summary.


2. (SBU) NCRI spokesman Dr. Farid Soleimani and Iranian

expatriate scientists Dr. Ali Reza Assar and Dr.

Manouchehr Fakhimi held a well-attended press conference

in Vienna on August 8 to air allegations against the new

Iranian regime. According to the Iranian exile group:

-- The new Iranian regime is continuing to pursue a

clandestine nuclear program. The claims about the

program being dedicated to civil energy production, they

said, are "a blatant lie;" Iran's oil and gas reserves

render the cover story of a civilian program absurd.

-- The IAEA is "being fooled" by the new Iranian regime,

as centrifuges are shuffled from one site to another.

-- This "cat and mouse game" with the West only serves to

buy time and concessions from the EU.

-- The EU and U.S. should get tough with Iran and refer

the matter immediately to the UN Security Council.

-- Placing the Iranian exile group "People's Mujaheddin"

on international terrorist lists was "a major mistake."

"Internal" Iranian Government Report

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3. (SBU) NCRI spokesman Soleimani referred to an

internal Revolutionary Guard report entitled "Appraisal

of Two Years of Talks with the EU," which refers to

assembling "thousands of centrifuges." The regime

applauds itself on a successful strategy vis-a-vis the

EU, which allowed Iran to continue its nuclear program

while winning important concessions from the EU.

Further, the internal report refers to the "weak reaction

by the EU in May 2005" and "weak language by El Baradei

in June 2005" as major successes of Iran's "appeasement

strategy." According to Soleimani, the report concludes,

"the EU and the U.S. must now accommodate our demands."

NCRI Assesses Impact of Ahmadinejad Election

--------------


4. (SBU) According to the NCRI panel, Ahmadinejad's

election as President "has clearly led to a

militarization of Iranian politics." For example, the

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council (IRGC) was now

"increasingly acting as a political party. The IRGC was

now in charge of security, police, and intelligence

agencies, and crackdowns on demonstrators have become

more severe than before." The NCRI predicts that the new

regime will now include Revolutionary Guard members in

top government positions. Further, Iran's new regime was

"determined to push its agenda in Iraq" by launching a

"vast campaign to empower fundamentalists there."

Nuclear Program

--------------


5. (SBU) According to the NCRI spokesman, there is no

doubt that the new regime will speed up plans to develop

nuclear capabilities, since "orders have gone out... to

have all resources go to the nuclear program." NCRI

spokesman Soleimani said that Revolutionary Guard

Brigadier General Jafari Sahroudi, who allegedly was

involved in the 1989 assassination of three Kurdish

leaders in Vienna (reftels),has assumed a key role in

this scheme. Soleimani stated that the Iranian nuclear

program was "completely under the control of the

Revolutionary Guards." He noted several nuclear research

facilities to watch in addition to the known sites,

especially two campuses of Malek Ashtar University.


6. (SBU) Soleimani quoted from an Iranian parliament

(Majlis) report dated February 2004, "obtained from

sources inside Iran," which showed the Majlis had not

known of the clandestine nuclear program at that time.

Exile Scientists Confirm Plans For Nuclear Program

-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Iranian scientist Dr. Ali Reza Assar, a former

Revolutionary Guard advisor, added that, based on his

contacts with Revolutionary Guard officials in 1986-1987,

it was clear that a secret uranium enrichment program was

already underway at that time. He said he had frequently

overheard statements from Iranian officials that "we need

a nuclear deterrent." The revolutionary government had

earmarked "hundreds of millions of dollars" in the 1980s

for development of nuclear weapons.


8. (SBU) Iranian geologist Manouchehr Fakhimi called

Iran's claim that its oil reserves would soon be depleted

"absurd." Iran had proven oil reserves to last at least

75 years and natural gas reserves for 250 years. Fakhimi

claimed that regime was continuing plutonium production

with centrifuges and was seeking supplies of beryllium,

which, in combination with copper and polonium 210, can

be used to build nuclear bombs.

VAN VOORST