Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05VIENNA1298
2005-04-19 12:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Vienna
Cable title:  

HAIDER'S NEW MOVEMENT PLEDGES CONTINUED

Tags:  PGOV PINR AU 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001298 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS (VIKMANIS-KELLER) AND INR/EU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR AU
SUBJECT: HAIDER'S NEW MOVEMENT PLEDGES CONTINUED
PARTICIPATION IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

REFS: A) VIENNA 738 B) VIENNA 739 C) VIENNA 945

D) VIENNA 1101

This message is sensitive but unclassified.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001298

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS (VIKMANIS-KELLER) AND INR/EU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR AU
SUBJECT: HAIDER'S NEW MOVEMENT PLEDGES CONTINUED
PARTICIPATION IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

REFS: A) VIENNA 738 B) VIENNA 739 C) VIENNA 945

D) VIENNA 1101

This message is sensitive but unclassified.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: At its founding convention on April 17,
the Freedom Party (FPO) spin-off, the "Alliance Future
Austria" (BZO),elected Carinthian governor Joerg Haider
as chairman. Haider underscored the commitment of BZO
ministers and legislators to the governing coalition with
Chancellor Schuessel's Peoples' Party (OVP). Haider
presented the BZO as an "ideology-free platform" which
seeks answers to the challenges of globalization. Recent
polls indicate the Social Democrats (SPO) have the most
to gain from ongoing turmoil on the right. Since some
FPO deputies have failed to embrace the BZO, observers
view the government's majority as at risk with each
parliamentary vote. A struggle between the BZO and the
"old" FPO over party finances and debts will keep the pot
boiling. On the other hand, the prospect of serious
losses in the event of new elections provides incentives
for the OVP-BZO-FPO troika to remain together. Schuessel
will have to weigh the risks of going into Austria's 2006
EU presidency with these arrangements. End summary.

BZO Founding Convention
--------------


2. (SBU) Under the slogan "Austria is flourishing," and
with borrowed quotations from Albert Einstein and Thomas
Jefferson, the "Alliance Future Austria" held an ORANGE-
draped founding convention at Salzburg's Mozart Airport
on April 17. Over 500 delegates, the majority of them
from Carinthia, unanimously elected Joerg Haider as new
leader of the movement. Since Haider has pledged to
complete his term as governor of Carinthia, the delegates
installed Vice Chancellor Gorbach as executive manager,
with Justice Minister Karin Miklautsch (from Carinthia,
until now an independent) and Heike Trammer (from Vienna)
as Haider's official deputies. Delegates also approved
party by-laws and principles, which the leadership will
flesh out into positions by the regular BZO convention
later this year.


3. (SBU) BZO leader Haider spelled out the party's top
priority: securing jobs in a globalized world driven by
shareholder value and "unbridled liberalization." Haider
accepted the reality of Austrian EU membership, but
presented a vision of an EU with a stronger role for the

member states. He proposed giving Austrians the
opportunity to express their views on key EU decisions,
such as the draft constitution, through referenda. BZO
parliamentary caucus leader Herbert Scheibner stressed
that the BZO rejected all 20th century ideologies and
"isms" -- especially anti-Semitism.

Parliamentary Caucus: BZO, FPO, Independents, Straddlers
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) It remains unclear how many of the 18 members of
parliament originally elected as FPO deputies will
embrace the new movement. Nine have so far declared
allegiance to the BZO. Three MPs stated they will remain
in the "old" FPO, but said they would decide on a case-by-
case basis whether to support the government. The
remaining six have taken wait-and-see positions or chosen
to remain independent. The FPO and BZO are locked in a
bitter fight over who will assume the FPO's accrued debts
(some three to seven million Euros) and receive various
official subsidies provided under Austrian law. Several
thorny issues will inevitably land in the courts.


5. (SBU) If the "old" FPO members win over two more
straddlers, they would reach the minimum required for a
separate caucus (with concomitant perks and subsidies).
Such a development would hardly help stabilize the
government. Under the old OVP-FPO line-up, the Schuessel
government enjoyed a 5-seat margin in parliament. But
with only nine former FPO deputies firmly committed to
the pro-coalition BZO, the coalition is, in theory, four
seats short of a majority. On the margins of the
convention, BZO caucus leader Scheibner told us he was
nevertheless confident of delivering reliable majorities
for the coalition under the new arrangements. Scheibner
said he expects "problems" with only three MPs: Lower
Austrian FPO chief Barbara Rosenkranz, Reinhard Boesch
(Vorarlberg) and former Justice Minister Dieter
Boehmdorfer.


6. (SBU) The new volatility became evident in the Upper
House of Parliament on April 14, when the SPO and Greens
introduced a non-binding motion for new elections.
Despite an agreement by OVP and BZO/FPO MPs to vote it
down, FPO MP John Gudenus voted with the opposition,
allowing the motion to pass by a razor-thin margin.
While the vote had no practical impact, it illustrated
the fragility of the government's majority.

Both BZO and FPO stand to lose in elections
--------------


7. (SBU) A recent poll indicated the Social Democrats
have the most to gain from the turmoil the FPO split
unleashed. The SPO now leads Schuessel's OVP in party
preference by seven points. However, the numbers cold be
misleading: Austrians view Schuessel as a factor for
stability, and far more of them trust him to guide the
country through turbulent times than his competitor, SPO
chief Alfred Gusenbauer. The survey showed the Greens
clearly in third place (at 12 percent). Both the BZO, at
five percent, and the FPO, at three, would have to worry
about missing the four percent threshold for seats in
parliament in the event of new elections.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: The FPO split has increased coalition
instability. "Old" FPO MPs might vote against the
government on bills regarding asylum, army or health
reform or, in the "standing committee" (Hauptausschuss),
on EU issues or peacekeeping deployments. Still,
Realpolitik may provide the glue to hold together an
unwieldy de facto three-party coalition of OVP, BZO and
FPO -- despite the BZO/FPO trench warfare over subsidies
and debts. All three parties would have to expect
serious losses in the event of early elections. The OVP
and BZO will more likely hammer out a strategic minimal
consensus to carry them through for another year and a
half until regular elections are due. Schuessel,
virtually alone, will have to weigh the risk of embarking
on Austria's EU presidency in January 2006 with this odd
collection of bedfellows.

BROWN