Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05VATICAN466
2005-04-18 16:42:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Vatican
Cable title:  

TOWARD THE CONCLAVE PART III: THE CANDIDATES

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR VT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS VATICAN 000466 

SIPDIS


DEPT. FOR EUR/WE (LEVIN); EUR/PPD; INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR VT
SUBJECT: TOWARD THE CONCLAVE PART III: THE CANDIDATES

REF: A. A) VATICAN 0367,


B. B) VATICAN 0450,

C. C) 03 VATICAN 5309

UNCLAS VATICAN 000466

SIPDIS


DEPT. FOR EUR/WE (LEVIN); EUR/PPD; INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR VT
SUBJECT: TOWARD THE CONCLAVE PART III: THE CANDIDATES

REF: A. A) VATICAN 0367,


B. B) VATICAN 0450,

C. C) 03 VATICAN 5309


1. (U) When the 115 Cardinal electors enter the Sistine Chapel
April 18 to elect a successor to Pope John Paul II, there will
be no clear favorite. Despite intensive media speculation and a
series of media bubbles for various candidates, heading into the
conclave no candidate appears to have an inside track to the 77
votes (two-thirds of the electors) required for election. As we
have reported in the first two parts of this series (refs a and
b),the electors will likely be looking for a theologically
conservative but socially engaged candidate, who can address the
distinctive regional challenges facing the church, capture the
public imagination, and run a tight ship in Rome while
broadening the sense of collegiality among bishops in the field.
This final pre-conclave cable takes a look at the leading papal
candidates or "papabile," from whom the next Pope is likely to
be chosen. Still, the many factors at play in the election, the
secretiveness of the process, and the unpredictable group

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dynamics makes handicapping this election almost impossible, as
evidenced by the fact that Pope John Paul was not among the
papabili at the time of his election in 1978. End Summary.

--------------
The Race is Not to the Swift . . .
--------------


2. (U) On the eve of the papal election, no single candidate
has emerged as a clear frontrunner. Despite a week of media
speculation suggesting that German Cardinal and close John Paul
II collaborator Joseph Ratzinger was moving close to a majority
of votes, it appears that he lacks enough support to achieve the
required two-thirds, given strong opposition from factions that
see Ratzinger as too rigid and jealous of Rome's prerogatives.
Some of these forces appear to be uniting around retired
Archbishop of Milan, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, as a
standard-bearer for the initial votes that will test the
strength of the differing groups, though he is not expected to
be a viable candidate. Based on these initial showings, the
cardinals in subsequent votes are expected to shift to other
candidates who reflect the Ratzinger or Martini views, but who
offer better hope of garnering support from other groups.

Italian Cardinals Ruini or Scola, and Argentinian Cardinal
Bergolio would be suitable to the Ratzinger camp, while Milan's
Archbishop Cardinal Tettamanzi or Brazilian Cardinal Hummes
could pull the support of the anti-Ratzinger groups.


3. (U) Despite the focus on these front-runners, the list of
viable candidates remains broad, and given the shape of the race
at this point, any one of them - or someone not included here --
could emerge as Karol Wojtyla did in 1978. Many Italians, who
form the largest national bloc, are hoping to regain the papacy.
Many Latin Americans, who represent the largest group of
Catholics in the world, believe that one of their number should
ascend. Other Europeans are certainly in the mix, particularly
those who could reach out to Catholics in developing regions.
And Africans and Asians, who represent Catholicism's most rapid
areas of growth, feel that a pope from their midst would send a
powerful signal of the Church's universality. These regional
factors, of course, are one series of many that will be in play,
and there will be many alliances rooted in theology or approach
to Church governance that will transcend regional allegiances.
For the ease of identifying candidates, however, Post provides
below biographical sketches of the leading candidates organized
by region, in alphabetical order within the region.


--------------
The Italians
--------------


4. Having held the papacy in an unbroken string for 455 years
prior to Karol Wojtyla's election, many observers have suggested
that the Italian electors will be eager to return the papacy to
an Italian. The Pope is the bishop of Rome, they point out, and
therefore should speak Italian and understand Italian culture.
Those who want to see an Italian ascend to the papacy hope the
Italian Cardinals can unite around one candidate and use their
core strength to coalesce additional support. At this time,
however, it does not appear that the Italians are united, and
some have even publicly indicated that the Church has moved
beyond Italy, and Italians should no longer regard the papacy as
an Italian prerogative. Despite the divisions and differing
perspectives, there are a number of strong Italian candidates,
particularly Cardinal Tettamanzi of Milan and Cardinal Ruini,
the Pope's Vicar of Rome, around whom a consensus could

eventually emerge. The Italian candidates include:

-- BERTONE, Tarcisio: Born December 2, 1934. Joined the
Salesian order in 1950 and was ordained a priest on July 1,

1960. He became professor of moral theology at his order's
university in Rome, and later taught canon law. Recognizing his
competence in church law issues, the Vatican asked him to work
on the final phase of the new Code of Canon law, released in

1983. Since the early 1980s, he has served as an advisor to
various Vatican departments, including the all-important
Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. Bertone was
appointed Rector of Rome's Pontifical Salesian University in

1989. Three years later, Pope John Paul II appointed him
Archbishop of Vercelli (northern Italy),and in 1995 named him
Secretary (number two) at the Congregation for the Doctrine of

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the Faith, where he worked for Cardinal Ratzinger. During his
tenure at the Congregation, Bertone helped develop key documents
on the nature of the papacy and the place of the Catholic Church
in relation to other Christian churches and the world religions
-- projects particularly dear to Pope John Paul II. After his
appointment as archbishop of Genoa in 2002 and his elevation to
cardinal the following year, Bertone continued his advisory role
on theological and legal issues. Bertone recently made
headlines for comments criticizing what he regarded as
misleading and anti-Catholic aspects of Dan Brown's bestseller,
The DaVinci Code. His ideological proximity to Pope John Paul
II and closeness to Cardinal Ratzinger increases his odds if the
cardinals are looking for continuity with John Paul II in an
Italian candidate.

-- RUINI, Camillo: Pope John Paul II's Vicar (delegate) for the
Diocese of Rome, President of the powerful Italian Bishops
Conference (CEI),and board member of the Vatican office for
Bishops. Cardinal Ruini was born February 19, 1931 in Sassuolo,
Italy. Ordained a priest in 1954, he completed a Doctorate in
Theology from the Pontifical Gregorian University. He was
ordained a bishop in 1983 and appointed Auxiliary Bishop of
Reggio Emilia. In 1986 Ruini was appointed Secretary of the
Italian Bishops Conference, becoming a member of the General
Secretariat (governing body) in 1990. Pope John Paul II

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promoted him to Archbishop, Vicar General of the Diocese of Rome
and President of the Italian Bishops Conference in 1991, and he
was created a cardinal the same year. John Paul II re-appointed
Ruini to the presidency of the Bishops Conference for a further
five-year term ending in 2006. A conservative, Ruini has a high
profile in Italy where he is close to the Italian political
establishment, and has recently been involved in an intense and
complicated political battle over Italian laws on artificial
insemination. He has a well-developed understanding of
international affairs, and has made clear to U.S. officials his
strong support for a close transatlantic partnership with the
U.S., where he has spent time to enhance his English. Ruini
could emerge as a candidate of the pro-Ratzinger group, who
could attract a wider following than the non-charismatic German.

-- SCOLA, Angelo: Patriarch of Venice, born November 7, 1941 in
Malgrate, Italy. After obtaining a degree in philosophy from
the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, he earned
a doctoral degree in theology from the University of Fribourg in
Switzerland. Academically brilliant, Scola was ordained a
priest on July 18, 1970. His priestly career included
university professorships in Switzerland and Italy, culminating
with his appointment in 1995 as rector of the Pontifical Lateran
University in Rome. He, too, has served as an advisor to
Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger at the Vatican office for doctrinal
orthodoxy. Scola is cosmopolitan, affable, intelligent, and has
a warm personality. He speaks German, French and English, as
well as his native Italian. Scola is a staunch defender of
Catholic doctrine, but without the handicap of being a demagogue
-- preferring to engage others by reason and dialogue. Some
Vatican watchers have described Scola as intellectually
arrogant, citing his practice of turning simple pastoral events
like parish visits into magisterial lectures on sophisticated
theological and philosophical themes. With the support of
conservative ecclesial movements such as Opus Dei and Communion
and Liberation, Scola has opened a theological school in Venice.
He has also begun publication of a magazine promoting
Christian-Muslim dialogue. Fiercely loyal to Pope John Paul II,
Scola was a favorite of the late Pontiff and has reportedly been
was groomed during that period in preparation for "greater
things."

-- TETTAMANZI, Dionigi: Cardinal Archbishop of Milan, Italy,
board member of four important Vatican offices, formally a
senior official of the Italian Bishops Conference. Tettamanzi
is an astute theologian specializing in ethics and family

issues. Born March 14, 1934 in Renate, near Milan. Ordained a
priest on June 28, 1957, he completed his doctorate in theology
at the Pontifical Gregorian University, and taught theology for
25 years. Former Secretary General of the Italian Bishops
Conference, Pope John Paul II nominated him Metropolitan
Archbishop of Genoa in 1995 and created him a Cardinal on
February 21, 1998. In 2002 he was appointed to the prestigious
See of Milan -- an appointment seen by many as a reward for his
loyalty to John Paul II. The Cardinal's notable publications
deal with moral issues associated with the elderly, women, the
family, bio-ethics and virginity. He is thought to be close to
Opus Dei. Tettamanzi is a moderate who may be able gain the
support of and mediate between conservatives and liberals. An
intellectual with a pastoral flair, he enjoys a reputation for
being discerning and clear-sighted. He speaks limited English.
After a high-visibility start in Milan that earned him the
reproach of Vatican insiders who believed he was promoting his
papal credentials too vigorously, Tettamanzi has more recently
kept a lower profile. In Milan, Tettamanzi has impressed people
with his pastoral sensitivity, openness to the city's young
people, and ability to grapple with complicated moral and social
issues, placing them within a comprehensible modern context.
While probably Italy's best candidate, his lack of language
skills may work against him at the conclave.

--------------
Other Europeans
--------------


5. (U) Despite the continued decline of the observant Catholic
population in Europe and increasing secularization in most
traditionally Catholic countries, Europe remains the traditional
core of the Catholic Church and home to half of the Cardinal
electors. Having broken the Italian stranglehold on the Papacy
with a Polish Pope, many believe the door is now open to other
European non-Italian candidates. Advocates of a European pope
stress the importance of rebuilding the church in Europe, and
maintain that a non-European pope would make it seem the church
had written off Europe. Cardinal Ratzinger is the leading
non-Italian European, though Portuguese Archbishop of Lisbon
Policarpo has recently surfaced as a European who could reach
out to Latin America.

-- da CRUZ POLICARPO, JOSE: Patriarch of Lisbon, Portugal.
Born February 26, 1936, in Alvorninha, Portugal, he was ordained
in August 1961 and holds a doctorate in theology from Rome's
Gregorian University. After heading seminaries in Penafirme and
Olivais, he became dean of the Theological Faculty of the
Portuguese Catholic University. He later served two terms as
rector of the same university (1988-96).
In May 1978 he was appointed auxiliary bishop of Lisbon,
receiving episcopal ordination that June 29. In March 1997 he
was appointed coadjutor archbishop of Lisbon and became
patriarch in March 1998. He is also grand chancellor of the
Portuguese Catholic University and president of the Portuguese
bishops' conference. Proclaimed a cardinal in February 2001, he
is seen as a moderate European who could appeal to Latin
American electors.

-- DANNEELS, Godfried: Cardinal Archbishop of Mechlin-Brussels
in Belgium, advisor to the Vatican's Foreign Office, and board
member of several Vatican offices. Danneels was born in
Kanegem, Belgium June 4, 1933. Ordained a priest in 1957, he
studied at the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium and at the
Pontifical Gregorian University in Rome. Danneels holds a
doctorate of Theology, later taught theology in Leuven, and has
authored several books. Danneels was ordained Bishop of Antwerp
in 1977 and promoted to the Archdiocese of Mechlin-Brussels two
years later. He is President of the Belgian Bishops Conference
as well as Bishop for the country's military. Created a
cardinal in 1983, Danneels has traveled widely and has taken a
prominent and highly visible place on the executive of a number
of Synod of Bishops meetings held in Rome over the years. He
speaks several languages and is computer literate. Danneels is
an astute theologian, often presenting sound Catholic doctrine
with a veneer of linguistic liberalism. He represents the best
of an eclectic European Catholicism, and would make a good
compromise candidate for the papacy. His extensive travels have
made him well known among the cardinal electors. An eminently
practical leader and administrator, he has been forthright yet
discreet in speaking about the late Pope's health and related
issues.

-- RATZINGER, Joseph: Dean of the College of Cardinals and
Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. Born
16 April 1927 in Marktl am Inn, Germany, he was called into the

auxiliary anti-aircraft service in the last months of World War
II. From 1946 to 1951, the year in which he was ordained a
priest and began to teach, he studied philosophy and theology at
the University of Munich and at the higher school in Freising.
In 1953 he obtained a doctorate in theology, and subsequently
taught dogma and fundamental theology in Freising, Bonn,
Munster, Tubingen, and Regensburg, where he became Vice
President of the university. In 1962, at the age of 35, he
became a consultant at the second Vatican Council in Rome. In
March 1977, Paul VI appointed him Archbishop of Munich and
Freising, and on 28 May 1977 he was ordained a bishop, the first
diocesan priest in 80 years to take over the pastoral ministry
of this large Bavarian diocese. Pope Paul VI created Ratzinger
a cardinal in the consistory of 27 June 1977. On 25 November
1981, he was nominated by John Paul II as Prefect of the
Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, President of the
Biblical Commission, and of the Pontifical International
Theological Commission. Elected November 30, 2002 as Dean of
the College of Cardinals, Ratzinger serves on many curial
bodies: the Secretariat of State (foreign affairs section),
Eastern-rite Churches, Worship and Sacraments, Bishops,
Evangelization of Peoples, Catholic Education, Christian Unity,
Culture, and the Commission for Latin America. Ratzinger
generated headlines in 2004 by asserting that Turkey should not
be considered a European country and should not be allowed in
the EU -- a view derived from his conception of Europe as rooted
in Christianity. He led the unsuccessful Vatican drive to
secure a mention of Europe's Christian roots in the EU
constitution. He earned praise for his homily at John Paul II's
funeral mass, and will certainly garner the most votes in the
early ballots, but is unlikely to secure wide enough support to
be elected.

-- SCHONBORN, Christoph: Cardinal Archbishop of Vienna,
Austria, and member of the Vatican's doctrinal watchdog office.
Born January 22, 1945 in Skalsko in the former Czechoslovakia,
his family moved to Austria later that year. Schonborn joined
the Dominican Order in 1963, and studied theology at prestigious
Catholic and state-run universities in Germany and France,
including Paris' Institute Catholique and the "Ecole Practique
des Hautes Etudes" at the Sorbonne. He holds a Doctorate in
Theology. Ordained a priest in 1970, Schonborn continued his
studies, later joining the faculty at the University of
Freibourg in Switzerland. He was a member of the Vatican's
select International Theological Commission from 1980-1991.
From 1987 to 1992 he was Secretary of the editorial commission
for the Vatican's definitive doctrinal compendium: The
Catechism of the Catholic Church. Schonborn was appointed
Auxiliary Bishop of Vienna in 1991, eventually assuming
responsibility for the jurisdiction in 1995. He was created a
cardinal in 1998 and has been President of the Austrian Bishops
Conference since then. Schonborn is the intellectual's choice
for pope but unfortunately he has been tainted by the sexual
abuse scandals in his national church. The fact he is the
pastor of a large diocese is one plus for him. However,
Austria's Catholics are divided between conservative
traditionalists and radical liberals, and Schonborn's inability
to control the open rebellion of many Austrian Catholics against
the present papacy and Catholic conservatism in general has
tarnished his image for many cardinal electors. His relative
youth will also work against him as few electors are looking for
another 25-year reign.

--------------
Latin American Candidates
--------------


6. (U) Latin America is home to 42 percent of the world's
Catholics, and is the second home of the Church after Europe.
With the continued decline in the vitality of the Church in
Europe, many Latin Americans believe the time has come for a
Pope from the developed world, where the church is growing and
active, but nevertheless facing competition from evangelical
groups and working to address daunting social and economic
challenges. Latin American Cardinals have told us they feel
this conclave could produce the first Latin American Pope,
though they have been cautious about making this case too
strongly for fear of alienating non-Latin colleagues. Clearly
if the decision for a Pope were based solely on regional
considerations, a Latin American pope would be a logical choice
for the electors for the powerful message it would send to this
bastion of Catholicism and to the broader church in the
developing world. The conclave will have a number of viable
Latin American candidates to consider when they sit down April
18, but these candidates will have to overcome the region's
under-representation in the College of Cardinals, where they

account for less than 20 percent of the votes.

-- BERGOGLIO, Jorge Mario: Born December 17, 1936 in Buenos
Aires, and ordained December 13, 1969 during his theological
studies at the Theological Faculty of San Miguel. Bergoglio
served as Jesuit Provincial (elected leader of the order) for
Argentina (1973-79) and rector of the Philosophical and
Theological Faculty of San Miguel (1980-86). After completing
his doctoral dissertation in Germany, Bergoglio served as a
confessor and spiritual director in Cordoba. In 1992, the Pope
appointed him Assistant Bishop of Buenos Aires; then in 1997, he
was appointed Coadjutor Archbishop (deputy archbishop with right
of succession) of Buenos Aires; ultimately becoming Archbishop
on February 28, 1998. Bergoglio is the vice-President of the
Argentine Bishops Conference and serves on the Vatican's
committee for the worldwide synod of bishops (a grouping of all
bishops conferences). He speaks Spanish, Italian and German.
Bergoglio exemplifies the virtues of the wise pastor that many
electors value. Observers have praised his humility: he has
been reluctant to accept honors or hold high office and commutes
to work on a bus. What could count against him is his
membership in the Jesuit order. Some senior prelates,
especially conservatives, are suspicious of a liberal streak in
the order, perhaps most pronounced in the U.S., but also present
elsewhere. Bergoglio is said to prefer life in the local Church
as opposed to a bureaucratic existence in Rome's ecclesiastical
structures, but at the same time he has been willing to serve on
the Vatican's various supervisory committees. This could
indicate an ability to bridge the curia/local church divide that
splits the College of Cardinal Electors, making him a good
compromise candidate.

-- CASTRILLON HOYOS, Dario: Prefect of the Congregation for
Clergy, and board member of several Vatican offices. Born July
4, 1929 in Medellin, Colombia, he was ordained a priest in 1952.
He holds a doctorate in Canon Law from Rome's Pontifical
Gregorian University and post-graduate diplomas in religious
sociology, political economics and ethical economics.
Castrillon Hoyos worked in a variety of pastoral fields and was
Secretary General of the Colombian Bishops Conference from 1954

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until 1971 when we was appointed coadjutor bishop of Pereira,
Colombia, assuming leadership of the diocese five years later.
He played a prominent role in the Latin American Episcopal
Council, first as General Secretary (1983-1987) and later as
President (1987-1991). After a two-year appointment at the helm
of the Archdiocese of Bucaramanga, Colombia, the Pope called him
to Rome to head the Congregation for Clergy, which overseas the
Vatican's outreach to and guidelines for clergy worldwide. He
was created a cardinal in 1998 and has served as a Papal Legate
on various occasions, most notably in 1998 at the signing of the
Treaty to end the border dispute between Peru and Ecuador. As a
curia official and a son of Latin America he is another of those
"bridging" cardinals who may appeal to electors searching for a
candidate who reflects the Catholic Church of the twenty-first
century. At 74 years old, he is also just the right age.
Castrillon Hoyos is a realist and a good friend of the United
States, who has expressed strong support for U.S. efforts to
combat terrorism. Combining firm and traditional theology with
modern communication methods, he has used his position at the
Congregation for Clergy to involve tens of thousands of priest
worldwide in Internet videoconferences on themes ranging from
bioethics to Church/State relations. Castrillon Hoyos may be
the perfect candidate for those hoping for a Hispanic pope who
knows his way around the Roman Curia.

-- HUMMES, Claudio: Cardinal Archbishop of Sao Paolo, Brazil.
A Franciscan monk and very much a pastor, Hummes was born the
son of German immigrants in Montenegro, Brazil in 1934. He has
been a bishop since 1975, and was created a cardinal in 2001.
Hummes is a board member of several Vatican departments,
including the Commission for Latin America. As a young bishop,
Hummes had a reputation as a staunch defender of the underdog,
and he assumed mythical status in his battles with the generals
of the Brazilian dictatorship. He has actively defended the
Movimento sem Terra (landless peasants),arguing that people
should be encouraged to organize themselves to defend their
rights. In later years, he adopted a more traditional
theological stance and distanced himself from political action,
though he still reminds government leaders that the Church
defends private property, but with "social responsibility."
Hummes may have the right mix of doctrinal caution and social
engagement electors are seeking. Hummes was invited to preach
the Lenten Spiritual Exercises to Pope John Paul and senior
Curia officials in February 2002 -- a traditional sign of Papal
favor. Gentle and soft-spoken, the Franciscan Archbishop of Sao
Paolo can also be stubbornly opinionated. His election would

be a powerful affirmative signal to Catholics in the developing
world that they have a central place in the Church.

-- RIVERA CARRERA, Norberto: Cardinal Archbishop of Mexico City.
Born June 6, 1942 in Tepehuanes. After ordination as a priest
in 1966, he studied at Rome's Gregorian University and later
taught at the Pontifical Mexican University in Mexico City. The
sixty-two year-old Rivera Carrera is the quintessential Latin
American churchman who advocates social justice within a
conservative theological framework. He has criticized
globalization and political corruption; but also closed a
seminary in his first diocese as a bishop, charging it with
teaching Marxist theology. The cardinal has acted as the
Vatican's agent for inspections of other seminaries in Mexico.
Rivera Carrera is reputed to be close to the Legionaries of
Christ, a powerful conservative movement that sprang up after
the Second Vatican Council. He is also active in promoting
traditional family rights and values, a central theme in the
John Paul II papacy. The cardinal is a board member of several
Vatican offices, including the Council of the Second Section of
the Secretariat of State (Foreign Ministry).

-- RODRIGUEZ MARADIAGA, Oscar: Cardinal Archbishop of
Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Born December 29 1942 in Tegucigalpa, he
joined the Salesian Order in 1961 and obtained three doctoral
degrees: philosophy (in El Salvador),theology, and moral
theology (at papal universities in Rome). A versatile priest, he
holds a Diploma in Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy from
the University of Innsbruck, Austria. He studied piano, harmony
and musical composition in El Salvador, Guatemala and the United
States. Ordained a priest in 1970 in Guatemala, he taught in
schools and universities administered by the Salesian priests.
In 1978 he was appointed as Auxiliary Bishop of Tegucigalpa, and
subsequently became Archbishop of Tegucigalpa in 1993. The
cardinal has served on the executive of the powerful Episcopal
Council of Latin America as Secretary (1987-1991, and as
President (1995-1999),and is currently President of the
Honduran Bishops Conference. Elevated to Cardinal in 2001, he
played a prominent role in the Cologne G-7 Conference on World
Debt and has been deeply involved in Transparency International
(movement for open and accountable government). He was sharply
critical of the United States' media's coverage of the clergy
sexual abuse scandal, charging that the media was anti-Catholic,
motivated by hatred of the Church, and that it used tactics that
reminded the cardinal of Stalin and Hitler. His comments could
endear Rodriguez Maradiaga to conservatives within the Vatican
and help his prospects as a compromise candidate for the papacy.
The fact that he comes from Latin America but is Roman trained
is a plus. Given the College of Cardinals' presumed hesitancy
to elect an African, Rodriguez Maradiaga may be an acceptable,
more "European" developing country alternative. His relative
youth could count against him though. Rodriguez Maradiaga,
while a darling of the media, has fallen somewhat out of favor
after frequent media ranting on issues that run from U.S.
"imperialism," to the "Jewish conspiracy" controlling the media,
to his own personal "suitability" to become pope -- the latter
statement the mortal sin within the College of Cardinals.

--------------
AFRICA'S CANDIDATES
--------------


7. (U) Africa is the fastest growing region in the world for the
Church, now accounting for 11 percent of the world's Catholics.
While the election of an Africa Pope would send a powerful
signal throughout the continent, many European cardinals have
made clear that they are not yet ready to elect a pope from a
region where Catholicism's roots are still shallow. Still, two
candidates have been listed among the top papal contenders.

-- ARINZE, Francis: Born Nov. 1, 1932, in Eziowelle, in the
Archdiocese of Onitsha, Nigeria. Ordained to the priesthood in
1958, he became professor of liturgy and taught logic and basic
philosophy at Bigard Memorial Seminary at Enugu and was later
appointed regional secretary for Catholic education for eastern
Nigeria. After studies in London, he was named coadjutor to the
archbishop of Onitsha in 1965 and ordained a bishop. Two years
later he was named archbishop. In 1979 his brother bishops
elected him president of the episcopal conference of Nigeria, a
post he filled until 1984, when John Paul II asked him to head
the Secretariat for Non-Christians (now the Pontifical Council
for Inter-religious Dialogue). Arinze served as president of
the Pontifical Council for Inter-religious Dialogue from May
1985 to October 2002, when he was named prefect of the
Congregation of Divine Worship and the Sacraments. Arinze has
faltered somewhat as Prefect of the Vatican's office for Worship

and Sacraments, slowly turning more reactionary in his
pronouncements and insistence of liturgical correctness. He
generated headlines in the U.S. with a sharply worded speech at
Georgetown's graduation ceremony in 2003.

-- NAPIER, Wilfrid Fox: Born March 8, 1941, in Swartberg, South
Africa, he was ordained for the Franciscans on July 25, 1970,
following philosophical and theological studies at the Catholic
University of Louvain, Belgium. After learning Xhosa, he worked
in the parish of Lusikisiki and performed pastoral work in
Tabankulu. In 1978 he was named administrator of Kokstad and
appointed bishop of the same diocese on Nov. 29, 1980, receiving
episcopal ordination the following Feb. 28. During the
turbulent changes that marked the South African political scene,
he was deeply involved in mediation and negotiation work along
with other national and provincial Church leaders. He served as
president of the Southern African Catholic Bishops' Conference
from 1987 to 1994. In May 1992 he was promoted to archbishop of
Durban and, in August 1994, was named apostolic administrator of
Umzimkulu. Since November 1999, he has been president of the
Southern African Catholic Bishops' Conference. He was elevated
to cardinal in February 2001. He is a member of the
Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, the Institutes
of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life, and the
Special Council for Africa of the Synod of Bishops.

--------------
THE ASIAN HOPE
--------------


8. (U) Outside of the Philippines, whose most famous cardinal,
Cardinal Sin, is old and in poor health, the Church is Asia is
still young and has yet to generate many senior churchmen
considered papabile. The one exception appears to be India's
Ivan Dias, a veteran of the Vatican's diplomatic service.

DIAS, Ivan: Born April 14, 1936, in Bombay, India, Dias was
ordained a priest in December 1958 and holds a doctorate in
canon law from Rome's Lateran University. He entered the Holy
See's diplomatic service in 1964 and was posted to the Nordic
countries, Indonesia, Madagascar, Reunion, the Comorros, and
Mauritius, and he also served at the Vatican's Foreign Ministry
equivalent in the Secretariat of State. In May 1982 he was
appointed Nuncio in Ghana, TOGO and Benin, and received
Episcopal ordination that year. He later served as Nuncio in
Korea (1987-91) and Albania (1991-97). In November 1996 he was
appointed archbishop of Bombay and was elevated to cardinal in
February 2001. Cardinal Dias serves on the following curial
bodies: Doctrine of the Faith, Divine Worship and the
Sacraments, Catholic Education, Culture, Laity, Cultural
Heritage of the Church, Economic Affairs of the Holy See, and
the Council of Cardinals for the Study of Organizational and
Economic Affairs of the Holy See. Dias is well respected within
the College of Cardinals, and personifies the desirable amalgam
of pastoral guidance of a local diocese and solid experience in
the Roman Curia.

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COMMENT
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9. (U) Predicting who will emerge from the central balcony of
St. Peter's Basilica in the hour after the white smoke appears
from the Sistine Chapel roof is impossible to predict, given the
absence of a clear consensus candidate, the divergent regional
priorities of the cardinal electors, and differing views on
church leadership and pastoral style. The electors will have to
decide whether they believe the next pope should continue John
Paul II's theological directions, or pursue new approaches;
whether he should have a worldwide vision and travel the globe
like his predecessor, or be an administrator who focuses on the
nuts and bolts of running the institutional church; whether,
after an aged Pope, the Church needs a younger leader, capable
of reinvigorating the optics of the leadership of the Holy See
or a transitional figure to bridge the papacies of John Paul II
and a future pontiff. In the face of these unanswered
questions, it is possible that the candidate who emerges -- as
happened 27 years ago -- will not be on anyone's list of
papabile.


10. (U) Beyond all of these considerations and questions,
however, the central criterion that cardinal electors will be
seeking to satisfy, and perhaps the most intangible for outside
observers is, as New York's Cardinal Egan observed, "a man of
holiness," or, as Cardinal George of Chicago put it: "a man of
deep faith, a man striving to be holy, a man faithful to Christ

and his teaching, and a man who will bring them into our times."
All the other factors -- age, national origins, experience,
media and language abilities -- will be important, but any
candidate who emerges from St. Peter's in the coming days will
first need to clear this hurdle of holiness among his peers.
That is why the Cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel singing
"Come Holy Spirit," and, as they face Michelangelo's Last
Judgment, will pray that the spirit guides them through this
maze of challenges and candidates to the right judgment for the
Church's future in turbulent times.

HARDT


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2005VATICA00466 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED