DUTCH CABINET SURVIVES

UNCLAS THE HAGUE 000883

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NL
SUBJECT: DUTCH CABINET SURVIVES

REF: THE HAGUE 829


1. (SBU) Summary: As anticipated (reftel,) the rank and
file of the Democrats-66 (D66) party, the junior member of
Prime Minister Balkenende's coalition government, voted
overwhelmingly at an April 2 extraordinary party congress to
remain in the coalition despite the resignation of D66
Deputy PM De Graaf. After several hours of sometimes
contentious debate, party members concluded that forcing
early elections would not be in D66's long-term interest,
and agreed that remaining in the coalition would allow D66
to press its reform agenda from within the government until
the next regularly scheduled elections in May 2007. The
senior Christian Democrats (CDA) and conservative Liberal
Party (VVD) coalition partners were clearly relieved that a
serious cabinet crisis had been averted. End summary.


2. (U) Following the March 23 resignation of D66 Deputy
Prime Minister and Government Reform Minister Thom de Graaf
over rejection of several government reform proposals, D66
renegotiated the 2003 coalition accord on terms that would
justify its remaining in the government by obtaining
concessions on other party priorities. On April 2, D66's
rank and file was convened at an extraordinary party
congress to give its opinion on the accord. In the end,
about a two-third majority at the party congress voted for
the accord -- and thus for staying in the coalition --
primarily because early elections were not considered to be
in the interest of the nation or the party. Party members
appeared to be convinced that early elections would more
likely only play into the hands of the opposition and
frustrate any real chance of reform in the near term.
Although many members expressed irritation that senior
coalition members did not take D66's political reform
proposals more seriously, the majority agreed that D66
should continue to pursue a broad liberal agenda (of which
political reform is only one part) within the present
coalition government.


3. (U) The two larger coalition parties -- the Christian
Democrats (CDA) and the Liberals (VVD)-- were openly
relieved at the outcome of the D66 party congress. PM
Balkenende recommitted his cabinet to carry on with its
reform agenda, "which is so badly needed." CDA floorleader
Verhagen opined, "The coalition has emerged strengthened
from this crisis." Opposition Labor Party (PvdA) leaders,
on the other hand, reproached D66 of "cowardice" for fearing
a confrontation with the voters.

COMMENT:
--------------


4. (SBU) D66's action has preserved the coalition government
for now, but it is unclear how much damage the de Graaf
affair will do to D66's long-term credibility. In addition,
all three coalition parties are currently declining in the
polls, and several of the cabinet's policies (and some
individual members) remain very unpopular. Balkenende has
clearly dodged one bullet, but it is not inconceivable that
he will face other challenges to the current coalition well
before the scheduled 2007 elections.

Sobel