NETHERLANDS/ISAF: PM FAILS TO ALLAY CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 003240

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR NL AF NATO
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/ISAF: PM FAILS TO ALLAY CABINET
CONCERNS

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Chat Blakeman,
reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: PM Balkenende was unable win full Cabinet
support December 2 for Dutch plans to participate in ISAF
Stage III, a setback that surprised many who thought the
Dutch leadership had answered most political concerns after
meetings this week with Assistant Secretaries Fried and Flory
and SACEUR Gen. Jones. The Cabinet will revisit the issue at
the next Cabinet meeting on December 9. MFA sources said
Foreign Minister Bot hopes to discuss the issue with U/S
Burns and A/S Fried at the OSCE Ministerial in Ljubljana
December 5 and with the Secretary at the NAC Ministerial
December 8-9. Balkenende sought to downplay the setback. He
told reporters after Cabinet that "a lot of headway" has been
made "but it is a complicated issue and we are not going to
take this decision hastily." End summary.

Cabinet Doubts
--------------


2. (C) National Security Advisor Rob Swartbol and MFA Deputy
Director General for Political Affairs Peter de Gooijer
reported the same account of the Cabinet meeting: Bot and
Defense Minister Kamp presented a joint statement supporting
deployment; Balkenende concurred. After lengthy discussion,
several of the 16 Cabinet members expressed skepticism --
including Interior Minister Remkes and both D-66 Cabinet
members, Minister of Economic Affairs Brinkhorst and Minister
for Kingdom Affairs and Government Reform Pectold. Swartbol
and de Gooijer suggested some members questioned why Kamp and
Balkenende had earlier opposed but now supported the
deployment, and needed more time to consider the issue.


3. (C) Swartbol and de Gooijer also said cost-sharing of
maintenance and repair at Kandahar airport and security
concerns figured prominently in the discussion. But they
said the most contentious issue involved the treatment of
prisoners captured in Uruzghan, where the Dutch are to
deploy. Several members pushed for stronger assurances that
prisoners would be turned over to Afghan authorities, and
detained in facilities that meet international human rights
standards, with full access allowed to the ICRC.


4. (C) Both also noted that the Cabinet will continue
discussion of the deployment at its next meeting December 9.
MFA Deputy Director of the Conflict Prevention Division Joop
Nijssen said the meeting will include a military briefing on
the feasibility of the mission, followed by a report from Bot
on the results of the NAC Ministerial. He said Bot will push
for strong assurances in Brussels on detainees and
cost-sharing at Kandahar airport, but now lacks the political
mandate to give NATO a positive response in the event these
issues are resolved. De Gooijer added that Bot's
consultations in Ljubljana and Brussels now take on greater
importance.

Balkenende Comments
--------------


5. (U) Following the Cabinet meeting Balkenende told
reporters "in many areas we made headway. However, several
issues remain to be resolved." He told national television:
"No decision was made this afternoon. It is a complex
consideration. And the Cabinet has to be cautious and look
at all factors." He added: "This concerns a NATO operation,
not an American operation. There are more countries
involved." He was asked whether the Netherlands could back
away from the deployment -- "No commitment has been made.
The Cabinet will make a decision and then Parliament."

To Be Continued
--------------


6. (C) News of sharp and vocal disagreement within Cabinet
comes as something of a surprise. On the eve of the meeting,
Dutch officials here and in Brussels repeatedly pointed to
assurances made by the November 30 delegation led by A/S
Fried and ASD Flory -- and results from the SACEUR Gen. Jones
and Dutch CHOD Gen. Berlijn December 1 meeting -- as tipping
the scales in favor of deployment. Even media reports made
an "about face" in the past few days, reporting that Cabinet
now favored the mission. Although final Cabinet approval was
never foreseen before December 9, a weakened Bot will now go
to the NAC ministerial without a clear political mandate.
The opposition of both D-66 Cabinet members also indicates a
difference of opinion within the governing coalition -- not
just with the opposition Labor Party (PvdA). However, the
decision today was not a "no" -- delayed discussion leaves
open the door that Cabinet might still approve the deployment.

BLAKEMAN