NETHERLANDS/ISAF: STAGE III PLANS STILL ALIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 003164

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2015
TAGS: MARR PREL PGOV PINR MOPS AF NL EUN
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/ISAF: STAGE III PLANS STILL ALIVE


Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Chat Blakeman,
reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The Dutch government has not yet made a
decision on participation in ISAF Stage III in Uruzghan
province. Prime Minister Balkenende, Foreign Minister Bot
and Defense Minister Kamp decided November 23 to postpone a
decision on Dutch participation until Balkenende returns the
following week from his trip abroad. As a result, the Dutch
government has a brief window over the next few days to work
with the United States "and others" to try and salvage Dutch
participation in Stage III. MOD officials confirm that Stage
III plans are still alive but contingent on two points:
continued U.S. presence at firebases in the north and a
"maneuver force" in Zabol province to the east -- but these
details are open to negotiation. According to National
Security Advisor Rob Swartbol, "to put this behind and just
walk away is simply not an option". End summary.

Washington Phone Calls
--------------


2. (C) According to Joop Nijssen (Deputy Director, MFA
Conflict Prevention Division),the Dutch viewed phone
conversations between D and FM Bot, and P and Dutch
Ambassador to the United States Eenenaam on November 22 as
"positive signals". Nijssen said the Dutch government took a
basic message away from the conversations: do not make any
rash, negative decisions at this time.

Balkenende-Bot-Kamp Meeting
--------------


3. (C) National Security Advisor Rob Swartbol confirmed
November 23 that Balkenende, Bot, and Kamp met to discuss
Stage III plans. As a result, Swartbol said the three agreed
to postpone a decision on Dutch participation in Stage III
until Balkenende returns next week from his trip to Suriname.
Swartbol and MFA Deputy Director for Political Affairs Peter
de Gooijer said this afforded the Dutch government a brief
window to work the issue over the next few days with the
United States "and others". Swartbol noted that "to put this
behind and just walk away is simply not an option."

MOD Side of the Story
--------------


4. (C) DAO contacts at the MOD concurred that the
Balkenende-Bot-Kamp meeting kept open the possibility of
Dutch participation in Stage III. They said that while the
Dutch military supports deployment, Kamp continues to push
for two points: a continued U.S. presence at firebases to the
north of Uruzghan province, and a "maneuver force" in Zabul
province to the east. MOD contacts suggested that the
duration and numbers of this U.S. presence to the north and
east are negotiable, and added that the Dutch might look to
eventually deploy their own special forces to the two
locations in the north while requesting NATO to look at
finding an ally to take the maneuver force to the east.

Comment:
--------------


5. (C) The window on Dutch participation in Stage III is
still open, and PM Balkenende is trying hard to make it
happen. The read-out from the Balkenende-Bot-Kamp meeting
tracks with what MOD Director for General Policy Affairs Lo
Casteleijn said last week: the Dutch government has realized
how damaging a pull-out from Stage III would be to Dutch
political and military prestige. If the Secretary does call
Bot on November 25 as planned, it would present an excellent
opportunity to shore up Bot's confidence. Bot will also be
looking for the Secretary to press Afghanistan President
Karzai to enhance civil administration efforts in Uruzghan.


BLAKEMAN