DUTCH POLDIR ON AFGHANISTAN, FORUM FOR THE FUTURE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 003037

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MARR AF NL
SUBJECT: DUTCH POLDIR ON AFGHANISTAN, FORUM FOR THE FUTURE,
ICC, AND IRAN

REF: A. THE HAGUE 2988

B. HAGUE-STATE E-MAIL.11/8/05

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Chat Blakeman, reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with Charge on November 8, Dutch
POLDIR Hugo Siblesz confirmed that Defense Minister Kamp is
driving the review of Dutch commitments to ISAF Stage III and
stressed that additional support from partners -- including
the U.S. -- will be critical to a successful Dutch deployment
to Uruzghan. The Dutch intend to remain actively involved in
determining how its contribution to the Foundation for the
Future is spent. Siblesz said that the Dutch find the U.S.
position on a draft ICC UN resolution reasonable. On Iran,
he expressed frustration with the EU's inability to deal with
provocative Iranian actions and described recent GAERC
discussions of the topic as "rough." End SUMMARY.

AFGHANISTAN: HELP US
--------------


2. (C) Noting that SACEUR was in The Hague that day for
high-level consultations on Afghanistan, Charge asked Siblesz
for his views on the internal Dutch discussion on ISAF Stage
III participation. Siblesz said that he was "more
optimistic" this week than previously, but made clear that
the Dutch viewed the consultations with SACEUR as a critical
step in determining whether and in what capacity the Dutch
would participate. In response to Charge's question, Siblesz
confirmed that the Foreign Ministry and uniformed military
remained committed to the Uruzghan mission, while Minister of
Defense Kamp had expressed strong personal reservations based
on his reading of reports from Dutch military intelligence
(MIVD).


3. (C) Siblesz noted that he had just come from a meeting
between Foreign Minister Bot and Defense Minister Kamp on
Afghanistan. He stressed that the Dutch recognized the
importance of ISAF Stage III as a test for NATO and wanted it
to succeed. The intelligence depicting Uruzghan as a
"Taliban heartland," however, coupled with the anticipated
OEF drawdown from Zabul and the two northern fire bases in
Uruzghan province raised serious concerns. Siblesz said the
Dutch had secured additional contributions from the Canadians
and thought they were making progress with the British.
While the Australians had been "flabbergasted" by the
apparent Dutch turnabout, according to Siblesz, he felt they
would hold off on changing their plans until the Dutch sorted
out their situation. Eventually, he stressed, the U.S. would
almost certainly also be asked to make additional commitments
-- including maintaining current deployments in the region --
to support the Dutch mission.

FORUM FOR THE FUTURE: STRINGS FIRMLY ATTACHED
-------------- -


4. (C) Charge expressed appreciation for the Dutch decision
to commit USD 1 million to the Foundation for the Future.
Siblesz stressed that this contribution came with strings
attached -- i.e., the Dutch want to be actively involved in
determining how the money is spent. Charge asked whether the
Dutch still had Morocco/North Africa specifically in mind;
Siblesz replied that the Dutch now felt that these areas were
sufficiently covered by other EU programs and wanted to focus
more on the Gulf. Charge urged the Dutch to participate
actively in the upcoming Forum for the Future meeting in
Bahrain.

ICC: WE LIKE YOUR TONE
--------------


5. (C) Siblesz said that, after a conversation with EUR AS
Fried over the weekend, he had been in touch with Dutch
Permrep to the UN Frank Majoor regarding the draft resolution
on the ICC. Siblesz stressed that he and Majoor agreed that
the U.S. position presented a viable way forward, provided
all could agree on the "right language." He said that Majoor
would work for a productive outcome during the upcoming
debate.

IRAN: GRUMBLING IN THE TRENCHES
--------------


6. (C) On Iran, Siblesz noted that it had been a "major
topic" of discussion during the November 7 GAERC, and
stressed that debate had been "rough." He claimed that the
Dutch had been instrumental in getting language into the
GAERC conclusions holding Iran responsible for its actions.
It was clear, he added, that the EU as a whole still favors
engagement with Iran, but there is no consensus on how to
engage given Iran's provocative behavior. Siblesz observed
that the EU at 25 is really not very well prepared to deal
with such a sensitive and complicated topic. In the
Netherlands, he added, parliamentary pressure on the
government is building to take a harder line on Iran.
BLAKEMAN