NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: POTENTIAL DELAY ON ISAF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002947

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/RPM, EUR/UBI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV NL AF MAAR
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: POTENTIAL DELAY ON ISAF
STAGE III DECISION


Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Andrew Schofer, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary/Comment: The Dutch government may delay its
planned November 4 presentation to Cabinet on Dutch plans to
participate in ISAF Stage III due to security concerns. A
delay at this stage would mean a later debate in parliament,
but would not necessarily push back the actual deployment.
It is unclear at this point whether MOD or MFA is driving the
delay, and both ministries reject Dutch press speculation
that political in-fighting between the two ministers is
responsible. Dutch officials -- both MFA and MOD -- continue
to stress that the Dutch government is committed to Stage III
regardless of whether the timing slips. The Dutch recognize
the need to consult closely with Australia and other partners
to minimize any negative repercussions from a delay in the
decision-making process. End Summary/Comment.

Press Reports MOD-MFA Spat
--------------


2. (C) The Dutch newspaper Volkskrant carried October 27 an
article alleging that the presentation to Cabinet of plans
for Dutch participation in ISAF Stage III will be delayed
beyond November 4 due to feuding between the Ministers of
Defense (Kamp) and Foreign Affairs (Bot). The article
speculated that senior MFA officials, including Bot, had
serious misgiving about the proposed deployments due to the
security situation in Uruzghan province. Although contacts
in both the MOD and MFA denied the substance of this article,
the Volkskrant and several other papers followed up October
28 with additional articles describing an ongoing dispute Bot
and Kamp over Afghanistan and, more generally, over which
ministry ultimately has responsibility for initiating
military deployments.

MFA -- MOD Needs To Finish Its Work
--------------


3. (C) MFA Director of Security Policy Robert de Groot
attended a October 28 meeting between Bot and Kamp at which
Dutch plans for ISAF III were addressed. De Groot denied
reports of a "power struggle" between Kamp and Bot, but
confirmed to Polmiloff that there might be a delay in
presenting the deployment plan to Cabinet because the MOD
needs more time to "finish its work." The press reports, he
stressed, were "completely unfounded and spurious," and the
purported MFA position "could not be further from the truth."
He added that the planned November 4 presentation date to
Cabinet was "fabricated by the press". (Note: Emboffs have
been told by numerous Dutch government officials that
November 4 was the planned date of the presentation. End
note.) De Groot said the decision will be taken in due
course, and in favor of the deployment.


4. (C) In a discussion with Charge on October 28, MFA Deputy
Political Director Peter de Gooijer declined detailed comment
on the potential delay. He noted that the original plan was
for Bot and Kamp to present the Stage III proposal to Cabinet
following Kamp's return from Afghanistan -- his visit would
provide "depth and color" to bolster Cabinet members'
confidence in favor of the Stage III deployment. He added
that any possible delay would require close consultations
with the Australians to preserve a possible Dutch-Australian
partnership in Uruzghan. (Note: De Gooijer led the
high-level delegation to Canberra last week to discuss
partnering in Uruzghan, and will accompany Kamp to
Afghanistan next week. End note.)

MOD -- Strange Press Reports, But Some Truth
--------------


5. (C) MOD Senior Policy Advisor Maarten van Meurs told
Polmiloff October 28 that the articles were off-base, but
contained an "element of truth". He said that there should
be "absolutely no question" that the Dutch are committed to
participating in ISAF Stage III. However, he added that Kamp
-- and not Bot -- had requested more time for a reassessment
of the security situation on the ground in Uruzghan. This
may delay a Cabinet decision on Stage III participation by
several weeks, van Meurs said. It will also require close
consultations with Dutch Allies, including specifically the
USG and Australia. He also noted that the broader rivalry
between Kamp and Bot alleged in the press was "not far from
the truth". The MOD has tried to consult with the MFA on
Afghanistan and the acquisition of new weapons systems like
TACTOM, he said, but there is a perception in the MFA that
Kamp is "stepping on Bot's toes," and "trying to acquire new
toys".


6. (C) MOD Director for General Policy Affairs Lo Casteleijn
described the articles as "very strange" and "off-base," and
expected statements by Prime Minister Jean-Peter Balkenende
and FM Bot refuting the reports. Casteleijn further declined
to comment on the possibility of delaying a Cabinet decision
on ISAF Stage III participation. (Note: Casteleijn has
always been forthcoming; his reluctance to talk is perhaps
indicative of the turbulent state of play. End note.)

Comment: Committed but Cautious
--------------


7. (C) The Dutch government wants to participate in Stage
III, and is doing everything possible to make it happen with
the broadest possible political support. This includes some
"spin-doctoring" to convince us that they are committed
despite the potential delay, as indicated by our inability to
get a straight answer on the actual state of play in Cabinet.
It does appear that the MOD is slowing an already slow-moving
train, but it is also possible that Kamp could return from
Afghanistan convinced of the need to immediately present the
Stage III plans to Cabinet. The MFA, meanwhile, appears to
be living up to its promises to the Australian government by
pushing the November 4 presentation to Cabinet. The Dutch
are clearly aware that any complications in their proposed
timeline will require some intense consultations with
Canberra -- and us -- to ensure that the potential
partnership does not unravel. End comment.

SCHOFER