SENATOR ALLEN'S FEBRUARY 13 MEETING WITH MINISTRY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000930

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2015
TAGS: PREL KWBG ECON IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI EXTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: SENATOR ALLEN'S FEBRUARY 13 MEETING WITH MINISTRY
OF DEFENSE DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL AMOS GILAD


Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Member
George Allen met with Ministry of Defense Deputy Director
General for Political-Military Affairs Amos Gilad February

13. Gilad focused on GOI efforts to coordinate with Egypt on
security aspects of the disengagement plan, in particular the
issue of weapons smuggling across the Gaza-Egypt border.
Gilad expressed confidence in Cairo's willingness to halt
smuggling despite its consistent failure to do so in the
past, arguing that President Bush's actions in the region as
well as the advent of the disengagement plan have brought
greater willingness to cooperate. Gilad described PA
Chairman Abu Mazen as a "brave man" who has surpassed
Israel's expectations, but noted that the network of informal
"understandings" on which current stability within the PA is
based could easily change. Gilad also said that Hamas
victories in the recent PA local elections were a "wake up
call" for PA leadership on the issue of corruption within the
Fatah ranks. End summary.

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GOI Confident That Egypt Will Address Smuggling
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2. (C) Ministry of Defense Deputy Director General Amos
Gilad told Senate Foreign Relations Committee Member Senator
George Allen February 13 that the GOI is working in
unprecedented coordination with Egypt on security aspects of
Israel's planned disengagement from the Gaza Strip. Gilad
pointed out that the first group of PA security officers had
already been sent to Cairo for training, and expressed his
confidence that Egypt will be able to effectively address
weapons smuggling across the Gaza-Egypt border. Many details
have already been worked out between the GOI and GOE, Gilad
said -- on the operational side, the Multi Forces and
Observers (MFO) will be involved in anti-smuggling efforts.
On the political side, the GOI and GOE agreed that their
Ministers of Foreign Affairs will stay out of the process --
despite the internal political conflict Gilad reported this
decision had caused within Sharon's cabinet. Finally, Gilad
reported, there will be no substantive change to the 1979
Egypt-Israel peace treaty, although he noted that Cairo hopes
to use this process to change the "spirit" of the treaty to
enable standard deployment of Egyptian troops throughout the
Sinai.


3. (C) Senator Allen noted that Egypt has consistently
failed to halt cross-border smuggling, and asked why the GOI
is now choosing to entrust it with this responsibility.
Gilad responded that several factors have effected an
"atmospheric change" in Cairo. First, Egypt is consistently
sensitive to Washington's thinking and does not want to risk
Israel complaining to the USG about Egyptian failure to
cooperate on such a high-priority issue. Second, President
Bush's actions in the Middle East have "shaken up" several
rogue regimes, a development that has opened Egyptian
internal politics to "brave" new voices in the upcoming
national elections. Finally, Gilad said, Egypt knows that
peace between Israelis and Palestinians will result in
increased regional stability and economic progress. "They
too see an opportunity post-Arafat," he concluded. The
Ambassador concurred with Gilad's assessment, adding that
Sharon's announcement of the disengagement plan allows Egypt
to view action on smuggling as assistance to Abu Mazen,
rather than assistance for the Israeli occupation.

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"Abu Mazen is Only One Man"
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4. (C) Gilad expressed enthusiastic support for new PA
Chairman Abu Mazen, saying that "he means change." He
applauded Mazen's dismissal of 40 Gazan security chiefs
following the Hamas rocket attack on Gush Katif, noting that
"Palestinians had dreamed of the day" these men would be
fired. Explaining that the GOI measures PA progress on three
tracks -- "intentions, efforts, and results," Gilad said that
Mazen has "far surpassed Israel's expectations." He added,
however, that Abu Mazen is "only one man," and his success
depends in part on a network of political "understandings"
within the PA that can easily collapse. For example, he
explained, Mazen is not yet able to actually arrest
terrorists -- while he deployed security forces to Gaza in
response to ongoing rocket attacks from the Bayt Hanoun area,
these forces were given no orders to intervene during the
attack on Gush Katif.


5. (C) The Senator and the Ambassador asked Gilad whether
the GOI had given Abu Mazen a deadline to disarm militants in
addition to halting attacks. Gilad conceded that Abu Mazen
agreed to a process that includes eventual seizure of weapons
and cessation of weapons production, but noted that the GOI
does not expect this to happen now and has not pinned down a
target date. In Gilad's view, Abu Mazen will not be able to
accomplish this even in the future, but he emphasized that
Israel is committed to giving the overall process "a chance"
even if Mazen does not succeed on every directive.

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The Anti-Corruption Vote
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6. (C) Gilad opined that the overwhelming Hamas victory in
Gaza's recent municipal elections demonstrated that
Palestinians are fed up with corruption within the Fatah
ranks. "It's not just terrorism; there is no law and order
in PA territories," he explained. Fatah leaders claim the
election results are "waking up" the establishment, but Gilad
warned that if visible change does not come almost
immediately Fatah will suffer again in the July 17 PLC
elections, and Hamas may win over 50% of the vote. Hamas
wants power and political success, Gilad added, but it
listens to the will of the people -- this is why it agreed to
the "relative quiet" of the GOI-PA negotiated ceasefire.


7. (C) CoDel Allen did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable.

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