Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV826
2005-02-10 13:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: FM SHALOM RESURRECTS

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000826 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: FM SHALOM RESURRECTS
REFERENDUM IN NO-WIN BATTLE WITH SHARON; SHINUI ANGLING TO

REJOIN COALITION

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000826

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: FM SHALOM RESURRECTS
REFERENDUM IN NO-WIN BATTLE WITH SHARON; SHINUI ANGLING TO

REJOIN COALITION

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom's
late-breaking campaign for a national referendum on
disengagement has exacerbated divisions within Likud over
disengagement, but will fail given steadfast opposition from
Prime Minister Sharon and a Likud-proof majority of Knesset
members. Likud referendum-supporters have collected the
necessary signatures to bring the matter to a vote in the
Likud Central Committee (LCC),but a meeting date has not
been set. Likud Minister and LCC Chair Tzachi Hanegbi told
the Ambassador that he will try to block an LCC referendum
vote, arguing that the party had already voted to allow Likud
MKs to vote their conscience on the referendum. An LCC vote
in favor of a referendum would not be binding on Sharon, but
would put pressure on Likud MKs to support a referendum since
they are elected by that body. Meanwhile, Shinui leader
Tommy Lapid told the Ambassador he had proposed to Sharon
that Shinui rejoin the coalition, and Sharon had not rejected
the idea out of hand. End summary.

--------------
No Knesset Majority for a Referendum
--------------


3. (C) The effort by Foreign Minister Shalom and other Likud
MK's to hold a national referendum on disengagement will not
succeed. Currently, at least 66 out of 120 MKs will oppose
it: 14 Shinui MKs, 21 Labor MKs, 11 Shas MKs, six Yahad MKs,
three Agudat Yisrael MKs, and eight MKs from the Arab
parties, as well as maverick MKs Yosef Partizky, Michael
Nudelman and David Tal. This number would grow by whatever
number of Likud MK's also vote with Sharon. Shas MK Meshulam
Nahari confirmed to poloff February 9 that Shas would
definitely oppose a referendum. Minister of Infrastructure
Fuad Ben Eliezer told the Ambassador February 9 that Labor
will vote against it and not remain in the government if the
proposal passed. A February 10 article in the daily Yedioth
Ahronoth showed only 33 MKs supporting a referendum, with
some 80 MKs voting against.


--------------
Hanegbi Tries to Avert LCC Vote
--------------


4. (C) While Likud referendum supporters understand that a
referendum could not now achieve a Knesset majority, they
hope that an LCC vote in favor of a referendum would put
sufficient pressure on Sharon and Likud MKs to support such a
move. In a February 8 television interview, Shalom said: "I
intend to use all the means at my disposal to convince
(Sharon)" to support a referendum. Likud MKs are likely to
feel LCC heat since they are elected by that body and could
face repercussions in the next elections if they act against
an LCC decision. Sharon, as Prime Minister, is elected by
the broader Likud membership, so is not as susceptible to LCC
pressure. Likud MK Yuval Steinitz told poloff February 9,
just after having finished a conversation with Shalom in the
Knesset corridor, that he will support a referendum in a LCC
vote, and that he expects an LCC majority in favor of holding
a referendum. Although Sharon has come out emphatically
against a referendum, Steinitz predicted that Sharon would
end up supporting a referendum if the LCC votes in favor.


5. (C) LCC Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi told the Ambassador
February 9 that he is trying to block the move by LCC members
to have Likud endorse a referendum. In his view, holding a
referendum would spell at least a delay in, if not the
collapse of, the disengagement process. He said he opposed
the referendum because he does not want to embarrass Sharon,
whom he described as "paranoid" about a referendum after the
surprise rejection of disengagement in last year's Likud
party referendum. Hanegbi said he is arguing to referendum
advocates that the Likud Knesset faction has already voted to
allow Likud MKs to vote their conscience on disengagement; no
further party action is therefore necessary.


6. (C) Hanegbi said he is particularly concerned about the
wording of the proposed LCC resolution, which states that
Likud would oppose disengagement until a referendum is held.
Worded in such a fashion, the referendum would, Hanegbi
pointed out, remove any incentive for disengagement opponents
to support a referendum. Should he and other referendum
opponents in Likud be unable to block the LCC vote on a
referendum, Hanegbi said they would try to have the
resolution rephrased.

--------------
Why Now, Silvan?
--------------


7. (C) After Shalom's February 8 announcement, referendum
opponents, especially within Labor, charged that Shalom, and
the other pro-referendum ministers, are trying to derail the
disengagement plan or are simply unable to decide whether to
support disengagement. Shalom has asserted that a referendum
is necessary to avert domestic upheaval over the
disengagement plan. Sharon charges that a referendum will
have the opposite effect, and that postponing disengagement
is a waste of time.


8. (C) Shalom's critics have accused him of pursuing a
referendum for personal political gain within Likud and as
retribution for Sharon's decision not to take him to the
February 8 Sharm el-Sheikh summit. Hanegbi told the
Ambassador he was puzzled by FM Shalom's call for a
referendum. He said he did not think Shalom was expressing
pique over the summit, but allowed that pique could be the
explanation. Shinui leader Tommy Lapid told the Ambassador
February 10 that Shalom is motivated solely by anger over
being excluded from Sharm. Lapid recalled the spectacle
created by Shalom at the Aqaba summit over his seating
placement, and said there was no way Sharon would have
chanced a repeat performance by bringing Shalom to the Sharm
summit. Hanegbi speculated that Shalom is more likely
worried that his ambiguous position on disengagement is
behind his declining support within Likud. As Shalom's
position as foreign minister precludes his taking a position
in outright opposition to disengagement, he could, in
Hanegbi's estimation, be using a referendum as a proxy for
appealing to disengagement opponents. Hanegbi said he was
unsure whether Shalom would confront Sharon, whose biggest
challenge, in any case, could come, he said, from Finance
Minister Netanyahu, who has spoken only cautiously so far
about a referendum.


9. (C) Likud Knesset speaker and disengagement foe Reuven
Rivlin, while announcing February 9 that he has changed his
position and now supports a referendum, made the caveat --
clearly directed toward Shalom -- that he would not join
"ever-changing campaigns of people whose national motives are
sometimes mixed with political ones." Shinui MK Ilan Shalgi
told poloff February 9 that he is "ashamed of Shalom" for
launching the referendum campaign now, knowing it does not
stand a chance, just for his "personal political gain."

--------------
Shinui's Gambit
--------------


10. (C) Lapid told the Ambassador that he had met with PM
Sharon February 9 and had told Sharon that, while Shinui
would vote with Sharon on disengagement issues, the party
would vote against the budget. "I cannot vote for the budget
which drove me out of the coalition in the first instance,"
Lapid said. Lapid suggested to Sharon -- whom he termed the
strongest Israeli Prime Minister in the history of the state
-- to call the bluff of the Likud rebels by inviting Shinui
to rejoin the coalition, thereby forcing the rebels to decide
whether to walk out. Sharon, Lapid said, did not reject the
idea but began to count the numbers of Likud MKs who would
remain inside if Shinui came back. Lapid told the Ambassador
he was not sure whether Sharon's reaction was a tactic or
whether Sharon would give the idea serious thought, but the
time for decisions was approaching.

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