A PRE-ELECTIONS PRIMER: PARTY PRIMARIES, POLLS AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007113

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: A PRE-ELECTIONS PRIMER: PARTY PRIMARIES, POLLS AND
PRECEDENCE

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (GARBLED TEXT)


1. Summary: Less than ninety days ahead of Israel's
general elections, the political landscape the three major
parties will maneuver through is clear. December 29 marks
the passage of the statutory 21 days since publication of
the presidential order to dissolve the 16th Knesset, a
formality that effectively ends the possibility that 61 MKs
could form an alternative government. Kadima, Labor and
Likud, the three largest parties are now officially led by
Ariel Sharon, Amir Peretz, and Binyamin Netanyahu
respectively. All three have yet to establish their lists
for the March 28th elections to the Knesset. The method for
doing so varies by party, but the timeframe is taking shape,
with Likud party primaries scheduled for January 12 and
Labor primaries on January 17. PM Sharon is likely to wait
until February 8, the deadline for submission of party lists
to the Central Elections Committee. End Summary.

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KADIMA PLAYS THE FIELD
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2. As founder of a breakaway faction from Likud, Ariel
Sharon enjoys the one-time luxury of shaping his Kadima
party free of the restraints of party primaries. The
faction has yet to form its institutions or devise a system
of internal elections, so PM Sharon and a small group of
advisors will pick the team as he sees fit. His base is the
13 members of Knesset he took from Likud, as many as 5
members from other factions, former Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi,
and former Likud member (not an MK) Shaul Mofaz. The polls
are predicting Kadima could capture as many as 39 Knesset
seats in the elections. That means Kadima could be the only
major party that wins sufficient seats to introduce new
faces into a legislature recently criticized by Knesset
Speaker Reuvin Rivlin as containing "some members who were
not worthy of their mandate."


3. Recently returned from Washington, former Shin Bet Chief
Avi Dichter officially announced December 27 that he would
join Kadima, a move that many pundits had predicted.
Another prominent newcomer is Professor Uriel Reichman, a
founding father of the Shinui party who is considered a
major asset in light of his key role in advocating a
constitution for Israel and definition of desired Israeli
borders with a Palestinian state. A Kadima campaign staffer
told us that he "could not say" just when the faction would
close its list -- a statement which suggests Kadima could be
campaigning to recruit new members all the way to the
February 8 deadline for submission of party lists to the
Central Elections Committee. As yet, Labor members Peres,
Itzik and Ramon have not formally resigned from their party
or joined the Kadima list but the February deadline will
force them to make their move official.
(Note: The Labor MKs who wish to join Kadima face possible
attempts by Labor itself to have them disqualified from
running on any party list on the grounds that they have
split from their faction but did not resign their Knesset
seats, in accordance with the Basic Law. End Note.)

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LABOR IGNITES ISRAELI POLITICS -- ONLY TO FEEL THE HEAT
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4. More than one veteran pundit views the surprise victory
of Amir Peretz over Shimon Peres in the Labor leadership
primary last November as the catalyst which finally ruptured
Likud and brought Kadima into the political light of day.
The euphoria in Labor was short-lived, however, and the
party is now battling major uncertainty as to just how it
can improve its standings in the next Knesset, given the
declared intention of three of its senior members, Peres,
Ramon and Itzik to join Kadima. Labor prides itself that it
is the only major party of which all registered members are
entitled to elect the party list. That vote is scheduled
for January 17 amidst dire forecasts by the latest opinion
polls that Labor will drop from its current 21 seats to a
mere 17. Compounding the struggle to maintain a winning
posture, Labor is also embroiled in internal wrangling over
precedence among its members. Amir Peretz's clear
preference for new names, such as former Shin Bet (ISA)
Chief Ami Ayalon and the President of Ben-Gurion University,
Avishay Braverman, is at odds with the expectations of
Labor's veteran Knesset members who demand precedence. This
tension could well produce unexpected results in the January
primaries.

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LIKUD LICKS ITS WOUNDS AND COMES TO HEEL
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5. The December 19 single-round victory of former prime
minister and finance minister Binyamin Netanyahu in the
Likud leadership primary has given the Likud party some
bounce in the polls, the latest of which gives Likud 16 or
17 seats as compared with an earlier December forecast of
only 12 seats in general elections. In the aftermath of the
leadership primary, Netanyahu is making every effort to heal
his battered party, but its depleted membership may not
remain compliant and cohesive for long. To satisfy those in
the party who are still vulnerable to overtures from Kadima,
the Likud Central Committee voted December 26 to give FM
Silvan Shalom the coveted number two slot on the Likud list.
Netanyahu is also trying to exclude the right-wing fringe
leader, Moshe Feiglin, who finished third on December 19, in
an effort to burnish Likud's appeal as a mainstream party.
Netanyahu reportedly plans to introduce an amendment to the
Likud Charter aimed at banning candidates with criminal
records from running in the primaries. (Feiglin was
convicted of incitement in 1997 and served prison time.)
The Likud party primaries, in which some three thousand
Central Committee members will choose the party list, are
now scheduled for January 12. Ahead of them, a Ma'ariv
poll, conducted among some 400 central committee members,
produced a party list remarkable only for its lack of new
faces and devoid of any surprises in regard to precedence.

CRETZ