SHARON'S HEALTH BECOMES ELECTION ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007008

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREF IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON'S HEALTH BECOMES ELECTION ISSUE

REF: TEL AVIV 6920

Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Sharon's hospitalization
December 18 for a mild stroke has raised questions of age and
health in the current pre-election political climate and
raised differing preliminary views as to what effect Sharon's
health problems will have on the Kadima party's future.
Political reactions to Prime Minister Sharon's
hospitalization differed among political commentators and
political parties, but all agreed that it is too early to
tell the extent to which Sharon's health will affect the
political landscape. As of December 19, the PM's health has
stabilized, he would continue treatment to prevent blood
clots, and could be released from the hospital by Tuesday,
December 20. End Summary.

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Wake-up Call for Kadima?
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2. (C) Political pundits and politicians assessed that it is
too early to tell how the health problems of 77-year-old
Sharon will play out in the upcoming elections, but they
speculated about the effect of Sharon's stroke on public
support for Kadima. Supporting the view that the party is
more than Sharon, Mini Zemach, head of the Dahaf Polling
Institute, wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth December 19 that, based
on Dahaf studies, the public has "a great yearning" for a
center party like Kadima. She assessed that some 47 percent
of Kadima supporters intend to vote for Kadima for reasons
other than Sharon.


3. (C) Kadima MK Majallie Whbee told Poloff emphatically
December 19 that Kadima "is not a party of one person," but
is rather composed of "very serious" people, who are
experienced and have strong personalities. As examples, he
mentioned Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, former Shin Bet
head Avi Dichter, and Justice Minister Tzippi Livni. On the
other hand, Likud MK Yuval Steinitz -- a strong supporter of
Likud leadership contender Binyamin Netanyahu -- predicted to
Poloff December 19 that because of Sharon's stroke, Kadima
will lose five-to-ten Knesset seats from its current showing
in the polls of 35 seats if elections were held today.
Steinitz asserted that all of Kadima's power and lure is
vested in Sharon and that the public will now wonder if they
should support a candidate that will reach 80 years of age
during his tenure. Likud MK Gilad Erdan, however, assessed
to Poloff December 19 that Sharon's health may not have
impact on the elections. He added, however, that Sharon may
need to be more active in Kadima's campaign to demonstrate
that he is in good health.


4. (C) Labor MK Yuli Tamir -- a close confidante of Labor
Party leader Amir Peretz -- assessed to Poloff December 19
that Sharon's stroke would raise the issues of age and health
of leadership candidates in the upcoming elections. She said
that the Israeli public is now much more aware of these
issues and is concerned about how the stress and demands of
being prime minister could affect a candidate. People will
look at the age of a party's leaders, like Sharon and
octogenarian Shimon Peres, Tamir said, and "ask if this is
leadership you can trust for the future." Going further,
Tamir asserted that without Sharon as leader, Kadima would
face a crisis and would "rapidly disappear." As a result,
she said, former Kadima supporters would return to their
original parties. Tamir asserted that no comparable leaders
to Sharon exists in Kadima and that "a lot of people won't
identify with (Ehud) Olmert."

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Sharon's Affect on Likud Primaries
--------------


5. (C) Likud MK Steinitz also predicted that Sharon's health
problem will result in more support for Netanyahu in today's
Likud elections. Likud voters will realize, Steinitz
assessed, that given his experience, including as prime
minister, Netanyahu is best-suited to be prime minister.
Steinitz also acknowledged that some in Likud may seek to
take advantage of Sharon's health episode and still work to
recruit 61 MKs to form an alternative government before the
Knesset's dissolution December 29 (reftel). In addition,
Ha'aretz reported December 19 that senior Likud officials
assess that Likud voters who supported Sharon will now return
to Likud out of concern that Kadima's fate is dependent on
Sharon's health.

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Worst Case Scenarios
--------------


6. (U) In a December 19 radio interview, Justice Minister
Tzippi Livni asserted that chaos would not ensue in the event
that Sharon could no longer serve as prime minister, noting
that Israeli law stipulates that Deputy Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert would serve as alternate in such a case. Livni also
explained that in the worst case scenario that Sharon is
incapacitated or dies, Kadima's Knesset list would be chosen
by registered Kadima voters, rather than by Sharon. (Note:
According to Israel's Basic Laws, the death of a prime
minister is treated as if the government has resigned. The
president would then have the discretion to ask a member of
the Knesset to form a new government and he or she must then
do so within a specified period of time which can be
extended. If the prime minister is temporarily unable to
perform his duties, an acting prime minister serves in his
place (in this case, Ehud Olmert of Kadima),who is empowered
to exercise all the powers granted to the prime minister for
100 days. If, after 100 days, the prime minister does not
resume his duties, he is deemed to be permanently unable to
exercise his office. In this case, the government is deemed
to have resigned on the 101st day, and the president then
begins the process of forming a new government. If no MK can
form a new government within the stipulated timeframe,
elections would be held. End Note.)

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