POSSIBLE UTJ DECISION AGAINST COALITION LEAVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000070

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE UTJ DECISION AGAINST COALITION LEAVES
SHARON WITH UNATTRACTIVE OPTIONS

REF: TEL AVIV 6672

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Religious reservations over disengagement, concerns
over the independence of its religious school system, and
issues of trust -- not only money or political benefits --
are the core issues preventing the United Torah Judaism (UTJ)
party from completing PM Sharon's desired Likud-Labor-UTJ
majority coalition. A senior official close to the Prime
Minister told the Ambassador January 4 that for the last few
days, UTJ spiritual leader Rabbi Elyashiv -- who alone will
decide whether UTJ will join the coalition -- has been
grappling with the fundamental question of whether the
disengagement plan would ultimately result in the saving of
lives, a primary objective of Jewish law. Elyashiv has
reportedly been lobbied by settlers, Likud anti-disengagement
MKs, and, according to sources, one senior Likud member,
against joining the coalition. The Ambassador's source said
Elyashiv is also concerned that, by entering the coalition,
he could be perceived by his constituents as selling UTJ's
votes for disengagement, not because it promotes Jewish
religious values, but for pure monetary benefits for his
constituency. The source added that Elyashiv is also
concerned that, once disengagement has been completed, Sharon
could renege on his promise that Haredi schools would be
exempt from certain educational reforms. A UTJ Knesset
member told the Ambassador January 5 that some prominent
rabbis are lobbying Elyashiv to join the coalition in order
to "save" the disengagement plan. This MK was not, however,
sure this argument would override Elyashiv's other concerns.



2. (C) If Elyashiv decides against UTJ joining the coalition
-- a decision he could reach January 6 -- Sharon could
re-open negotiations with Shas, but prospects for drawing
that party into the coalition are poor since it remains
firmly opposed to the disengagement plan. Sharon could ask
former coalition partner Shinui to return to the fold, but
would face strong opposition within his own party to an
entirely secular Likud-Labor-Shinui coalition, a combination
Likud rejected August 18. Sharon would face similar
opposition from his party if he tries to advance a simple
Likud-Labor coalition. Sharon could call for early
elections, but that would postpone implementation of the
disengagement plan by at least the minimum 111 days required
by law to hold elections, something Sharon is loathe to do.
In addition, few, if any political parties, want early
elections. Finally, Sharon could choose to hobble along with
his minority one-party government, depending on outside
support from informal coalitions for his budget and the
disengagement plan.


3. (C) The senior official highlighted that Sharon had made
a serious tactical error in using an attorney inexperienced
with the Haredi community to negotiate with the UTJ. The
lawyer, he said, failed to recognize that, their reputations
for sharp budget bargaining notwithstanding, the Haredim
actually have religious and moral concerns that transcend
finances. The official, who has long experience with the
Haredi community, said Sharon did not take up his offer that
he assist in the coalition negotiations with the UTJ. The
UTJ MK added separately that broken trust between Elyashiv
and Sharon is so deep that even a face-to-face meeting now
would not help.




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