ISRAELIS DELIBERATELY "AMBIGUOUS" ON PALESTINIAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 006877

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/IPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV KPAL KDEM KPKO LE SY IS IR TU AE ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: ISRAELIS DELIBERATELY "AMBIGUOUS" ON PALESTINIAN
ELECTIONS ACCORDING TO NSA EILAND


Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY: National Security Advisor Giora Eiland and
Deputy National Security Advisor Eran Etzion told NEA
Assistant Secretary David Welch December 9 that the GOI has
adopted a deliberately "ambiguous" approach to Palestinian
Authority (PA) elections "so the PA can't blame Israel for
the postponement of the elections." The GOI has not yet
decided, Eiland reported, whether to permit Palestinians to
vote in East Jerusalem. Eiland also stressed that if
Benyamin Netanyahu wins the December 19 Likud party election
and pulls Likud out of the government, then it is unclear who
will serve in the vital role of Defense Minister for the next
three months, since Sharon is prevented from assuming that
position himself. Eiland said initiation of convoys to
transport Palestinians from Gaza to the West Bank through
Israel depends on Palestinian cooperation at Rafah. Welch
said the USG is committed to the successful implementation of
the November 15 Agreement on Movement and Access. "When
we've resolved these problems, we expect you to return to the
agreement," A/S Welch underscored, "and we expect it to be
done by December 15." Eiland added that Shin Bet believes
the Rafah crossing and a link between Gaza and the West Bank
will lead to the transfer of weapons capabilities from Gaza
to the West Bank. Eiland also reported that in recent
meetings in Paris he learned from French officials that they
"do not want to touch Hizballah right now" because the
Lebanese government is weak and a confrontation with
Hizballah will weaken it further. French officials,
according to Eiland, are not interested in what happens in
Syria unless it affects Lebanon. END SUMMARY.

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GOI STANCE ON PA ELECTIONS: DELIBERATE AMBIGUITY
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2. (C) Eiland said some Palestinian leaders have begun to
break from the Fatah party, including Palestinian Authority
(PA) Finance Minister Salam Fayyad, in what Eiland described
as an effort to mimic the recent splintering of political
parties in Israel. For a variety of reasons, Eiland
explained, key leaders of the PA, including President Mahmud
Abbas, seek to postpone parliamentary elections scheduled for
January 2006. No one among these leaders wants to "blink
first," according to Eiland, by publicly pushing to delay the
elections. In order to find an excuse to reschedule the
elections, PA leaders may blame GOI policies, Eiland said.
As a result of this concern, Eiland reported, the GOI has
carefully crafted its policy line on the Palestinian
elections. "We keep our positions vague," he explained, "so
the PA can't blame Israel for the postponement of their
elections. If Israel says it's not ok to do A, B, or C, then
they can blame us for preventing them from holding free and
fair elections."


3. (C) Eiland said the GOI has thus adopted a deliberately
"ambiguous" stand in deciding "not to interfere but not to
assist" with the Palestinian elections. Eiland explained
that while the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip do not require
GOI assistance to hold elections, in the West Bank they need
the GOI to permit PA officials, notably police, freedom of
movement so that they can secure ballots and voting stations.
"In the last PA election we let their security people move
freely," Eiland said, "and if we don't do it again, then it
will be hard for them to monitor the elections and control
the election process." In addition, Eiland explained, during
prior elections the GOI set up a combined command and control
center to enable Palestinian officials to respond immediately
to crises. "If we don't establish a similar combined
headquarters," Eiland said, "there will be difficulties for
the PA."


4. (C) Eiland said that for symbolic reasons the GOI wants
Palestinians to vote outside of East Jerusalem. He claimed
Palestinians want to vote inside East Jerusalem for similar
"symbolic reasons." The GOI has not yet, Eiland reported,
adopted a final position on this issue. "We need discussion
on this issue and clarity between us," Welch responded.
Welch said it may be possible to use this period before
elections to impose limits on Hamas, possibly though a code
of conduct, or through an initiative of the Quartet. The
USG, Welch stressed, intends to encourage an international
consensus that will provide clarity and keep the role of
extremists in proper perspective; our ability to do so would
be affected by other positions Israel takes. Eiland and his
deputy, Eran Etzion, said codes of conduct used in Iraq and
Afghanistan might be instructive for dealing with Hamas.
Welch acknowledged these precedents, but suggested that a
strong international position may be more effective than a
long list of demands.
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ISRAELI DOMESTIC POLITICS
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5. (C) Eiland said that the December 19 Likud leadership
vote is important because it will determine the composition
of the Israeli government until the March elections. If
Benyamin Netanyahu is elected to lead Likud, Eiland claimed,
then he will pull the Likud party immediately out of the
government. Since Sharon is prevented from assuming the
portfolio of Defense Minister, it is unclear who might fill
this important role should Mofaz depart. Whoever serves as
Defense Minister, Eiland emphasized, will have much
influence, and may be in that position for up to three
months. If Mofaz or Shalom is elected to lead Likud,
however, Eiland said they will likely keep Likud in the
government.

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PASSAGE: CONVOY A SECURITY ISSUE; TUNNEL A POLITICAL ISSUE
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6. (C) Eiland said the initiation of convoys to transport
Palestinians from Gaza to the West Bank through Israel
depends on Palestinian cooperation at Rafah. When pressed
about the November 15 agreement's stipulation that convoys
begin on December 15, Eiland asked, "What's more important,
the timetable or performance?" It is not a practical problem
to stick to the timeline, Eiland said, but doing so must
depend upon the performance of PA officials. "We get the
feeling," Eiland reported, "that the Palestinians will get
concessions regardless of what they do or don't do." Welch
said the USG shares his concerns and is pressing the
Palestinians. "We have a real seriousness of purpose to
implement the agreement," Welch said, emphasizing that the
problems at Rafah are being resolved now. Welch explained
that the USG has even improved signal transmission at Rafah
to the GOI faster than fifteen minutes, which had been the
baseline performance demanded by the GOI in November. "When
we've resolved these problems, we expect you to return to the
agreement," Welch underlined, "and we expect it to be done by
December 15."


7. (C) With regard to Palestinians transiting across Israel,
Eiland said Prime Minister Ariel Sharon perceives a
fundamental difference between convoys and a permanent
passage such as a railroad, highway, or tunnel. PM Sharon
maintains that convoys require security assurances while
passages require political negotiations. A permanent
structure of passages will affect Israeli contiguity, Eiland
explained, and would serve as a bargaining chip for securing
Israeli passages through Palestinian territory in final
status talks. Highways such as 443 (linking Tel Aviv and
Jerusalem via Modin and Palestinian territory) must serve
Israelis -- and maybe only Israelis -- just as similar
arteries cutting through Israeli territory will serve only
Palestinians. Permanent Palestinian passages through Israel,
Eiland summarized, must therefore fall within a final status
agreement that also allows for permanent Israeli passages
through Palestine. Welch said that the USG perceives the
convoys as a political issue: "The convoy is not a permanent
solution," Welch stressed, "but it is a positive step
enhancing access."


8. (S) Eiland said that Shin Bet believes the Rafah crossing
and a link between Gaza and the West Bank will lead to the
transfer of weapons capabilities from Gaza to the West Bank,
a point reiterated subsequently at the MOD by Amos Gilad
(septel). In the past three months, Eiland reported, the GOI
has captured two teams of Palestinians that traveled from the
West Bank to Jordan, Egypt, Gaza and back to Jenin in an
attempt to transfer illicit technology. Qassam rockets in
the West Bank, Eiland warned, will change the overall
security situation. Eiland also claimed that members of Al
Qaeda and Hizballah have entered Gaza through Rafah. "In
general," Welch responded, "if you don't have prior
intelligence about a specific individual, then you could face
this problem on any front. To evaluate individuals you rely
on cooperation from the USG, the EU, and the Egyptians."
Eiland replied, "Yes, that's why we can take this risk and
agree with you on convoys."

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PARIS POSTSCRIPT ON SYRIA, LEBANON AND IRAN
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9. (C) Eiland also reported that in recent meetings in Paris
he learned from French officials that they "do not want to
touch Hizballah right now" because the Lebanese government is
weak and a confrontation with Hizballah will weaken it
further. French officials, according to Eiland, are not
interested in what happens in Syria unless it affects
Lebanon. Eiland said the French believe that the February
conference on Lebanon may offer an opportunity to discuss
border cooperation with the Lebanese. While French officials
seek to maintain UNIFIL, Eiland said, the Israelis seek to
phase it out. With regard to Iran, Eiland said that French
officials believe uranium conversion is fine, but uranium
enrichment must be prevented; Eiland added that these
officials claim they have a green light on this approach from
the USG and others.


10. (U) NEA A/S Welch cleared this message.

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