GILAD TELLS A/S WELCH PA ACTION AGAINST PIJ AND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006876

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER KWBG KPAL IS JO LE SY ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS COUNTERTERRORISM GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: GILAD TELLS A/S WELCH PA ACTION AGAINST PIJ AND
SMUGGLERS REMAINS INSUFFICIENT

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (S) Summary: In a December 9 meeting after that with
Defense Minister Mofaz (septel),MOD Pol-Mil Director Amos
Gilad told A/S Welch, the Ambassador, and Col. Dugger (USSC)
that he is concerned that Fatah is replacing its "old guard"
with extremists. He assessed that if this trend continues, a
more extremist Fatah and Hamas could be in power after the
Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections in January.
Gilad acknowledged that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has
arrested some Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) members in the
West Bank, but charged that the PA arrested the wrong people
and did not touch any terrorists in Gaza. Gilad expressed
concern about a recently-enacted PA law (sic) that offers
state compensation to the families of so-called "martyrs."
He noted that the GOI is trying to determine if the term
"martyrs" includes those who commit terrorist acts. Gilad
claimed that terrorists are smuggling weapons experts across
the Egyptian border into Gaza, echoing a point raised by
National Security Advisor Eiland (septel). Gilad highlighted
the importance of "tight" U.S.-GOI communication about
possible Syrian provocative action to deflect attention from
the release of the Mehlis report. End Summary.

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Fatah Old Guard Fading
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2. (C) Gilad told A/S Welch that Fatah's old guard is being
replaced with "extremists." If Fatah obtains 40 percent
support in the January PLC elections, and Hamas 30 percent,
then two extremist factions could be in power, Gilad
projected. Gilad suggested that Welch raise this "gloomy"
possibility with PA officials.

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Acting Against PIJ, and Weapons and Terrorist Smuggling
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3. (S) Gilad assessed that because of USG pressure, the PA
started to arrest PIJ members, but, he asserted, "not the
right ones." He claimed that the PA arrested some 30 PIJ
members in the West Bank, but "didn't touch terrorists," or
make any arrests in Gaza. Gilad added that he has very
reliable, "sensitive information" that terrorist groups have
smuggled weapons experts from Egypt into Gaza who can upgrade
rocket capabilities, although he claimed that he does not
have the names of any of these experts. He stressed that the
PA needs an additional "incentive" to become more effective
in controlling passages. Mofaz Chief of Staff Brig. General
Dangot, who also attended the meeting, added that in the last
10 days, Qassam rockets targeted more than 10 Israeli
villages near the Gaza border. He claimed that Palestinian
terrorists also tried to target the Kerem Shalom crossing.
He charged that the PA has not acted against these rocket
attacks.

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Gilad: Syria is Nervous
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4. (C) Gilad said he sensed Syria's nervousness about the
issuance of the Mehlis Report next week, and he expressed
concern that Syria could try to provoke or even attack Israel
if it feels vulnerable to attack itself. Welch noted that
the report may become public as early as the upcoming
weekend. He concurred with Gilad on the need for the U.S.
and Israel to stay in close communication about the evolving
situation surrounding issuance of the report. Gilad said he
understands that there is a Pakistani candidate to succeed
Mehlis.

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Martyrs Law
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5. (C) Gilad raised his concern about a recently-enacted PA
law -- which he claimed was not yet made public -- that could
require state compensation to families of so-called
"martyrs." He said that the GOI is still trying to determine
whether the term "martyrs" includes terrorists. Gilad
claimed that former PA Finance Minister Fayyad "promised"
Gilad that such a law would not be enacted. Gilad said that
if the law does include terrorists, it will be very
problematic in Israel. He recommended that Welch raise this
issue in his meetings with PA officials. (FYI: Fayyad said,
in a later conversation, that he knew of no/no new law; a law
of this sort passed some months ago, but he had "buried it"
by declaring it unconstitutional.)

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The Jordan Vacuum
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6. (C) While assessing that relations between Israel and
Jordan are "wonderful," Gilad expressed concern about what he
termed was a political "vacuum" developing in Jordan. He
claimed that Jordanian government and army officials are
being replaced with weaker successors. He said this trend is
something that should be tracked.

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