KADIMA TAKES BITE OUT OF THREE PARTIES; PLATFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006710

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS PEACE PROCESS
SUBJECT: KADIMA TAKES BITE OUT OF THREE PARTIES; PLATFORM
CALLS FOR TWO-STATE SOLUTION

REF: TEL AVIV 6673

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (U) Summary: Prime Minister Sharon's Kadima Party
continues to siphon off high-profile politicians from other
parties, and its support in the polls is climbing. Labor
Party MK and Shimon Peres's close confidante, Dalia Yitzik,
announced late November 28 that she is joining Kadima. The
nation awaits an announcement expected November 30 by former
Labor Party leader Shimon Peres about his political future,
with much speculation as to whether he will accept a peace
envoy position in a Sharon-led government. At its Knesset
faction meeting November 28, Kadima party members agreed on a
national platform, which immediately leaked, that calls for
the preservation of Israel as a Jewish, democratic state
through the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian
state in the territory of "the land of Israel" (read: Gaza
and parts of the West Bank). The latest poll shows Kadima
would receive 34 Knesset seats if elections were held today,
up one seat from last week. Likud would win only 10 seats,
down from 13 last week, ranking fourth, after Kadima, Labor
and Shas. End Summary.


2. (C) Political Shifts in Shinui, Labor, and Likud to Kadima

-- Sources close to former Labor leader Shimon Peres say that
he is likely to align himself, but not actually join, the
Kadima Party, and accept a position as some sort of peace
envoy in any future Sharon-led government. Peres said he
will announce his decision November 30.

-- Labor MK and former Minister of Communications Dalia
Itzik, a close confidante of Peres, announced late November
28 that she is leaving the Labor Party to join Kadima. Some
observers speculate that Peres conditioned his political
support for Kadima on Sharon offering Itzik a choice position
in Kadima.

-- Labor MK and former Environment Minister Shalom Simhon is
also considering whether to leave Labor to join Kadima.

-- One of the Shinui Party's founders, Uriel Reichman,
confirmed November 29 that he is joining Kadima (reftel).
Shinui MK Ilan Shalgi told Poloff November 29 that Sharon
offered Reichman the Ministry of Education portfolio in any
future Sharon government. He said that Reichman's move is a
setback for Shinui leader Lapid.

-- Responding to an official invitation, 72 Likud, Labor and
non-affiliated mayors and heads of regional councils from
around the country attended a meeting with Sharon at his
residence to discuss the Kadima Party. Some half of those
who attended reportedly announced they intend to join the
Kadima party.

-- Meretz MK Zehava Gal-On told Poloff November 29 that
Meretz leader Yossi Beilin's November 27 announcement of his
party's willingness to join Kadima was "premature" (see
reftel). She stressed that Beilin made the announcement
without the party's agreement.


3. (U) Labor Reels in a Public Figure

-- The media has had a lovefest covering Channel Two reporter
Sheli Yehimovitch's move to join the Labor Party. Television
news broadcasts November 29 devoted long segments showing the
popular Yehimovitch arriving at Labor Party headquarters,
being escorted into Peretz's office, and sitting cozily with
Peretz on the office couch with his arm around her. Peretz's
search for prominent personalities from outside the Knesset
to join his party list could threaten the seats of current
Labor MKs.


4. (U) Kadima Announces Simple Election Platform

-- The Kadima faction platform as leaked to the media calls
for the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state
alongside Israel in order to preserve Israel's Jewish
majority and its democratic nature.

-- The Kadima platform also calls for the preservation of an
undivided Jerusalem and retention of major West Bank
settlement blocs under Israeli control.

-- The platform also states that the roadmap will be a part
of Kadima's national agenda and that the establishment of a
Palestinian state will be achieved in stages, the first of
which will include the dismantling of terrorist
organizations, collecting firearms, implementing security
reforms in the Palestinian Authority and preventing
incitement.

-- The platform alludes to the need for political reforms,
including the introduction of constituency-based elections
and open primaries for Knesset members and the premiership.


5. (U) Latest Polls Show Likud Losing Ground

-- A Dahaf Polling Institute poll released November 30 shows
that if elections were to be held today, Likud would garner
only 10 Knesset seats, down to one quarter of its current
number. The polls showed that even the Shas Party would
out-rank Likud, with 11 seats.

-- According to the Dahaf poll, Kadima would win 34 Knesset
seats, up one seat from last week's poll figures; the Labor
Party would receive 27 seats, also up one seat from last
week's survey.

-- The poll shows Shinui support shrinking further, down to
five seats from the six indicated in last week's poll.
Shinui won 15 seats in the last election.


6. (C) Parties Prepare for Primaries.

-- National Religious Party primaries are scheduled for
January 3, according to NRP MK Shaul Yahalom. Yahalom told
Poloff November 29 that the NRP and the National Union (NU)
will be submitting a united list for the elections. He
dismissed speculation that the other religious parties, Shas
and United Torah Judaism, would join with the NRP and NU to
form a broader religious/right-wing political base.

-- Yahalom also commented that Avigdor Lieberman, leader of
the Yisrael Beiteinu party, would focus on the secular
Russian vote rather than marry up with the right-wing
religious parties.

-- Shinui MK Ilan Shalgi told Poloff that Shinui's 169-member
council will choose the party list January 19. Shalgi noted
he is number three on the list, after Shinui leader Tommy
Lapid and MK Avraham Poraz. He commented that Shinui will
aim to attract the secular middle class, and asserted that
his party would be a good partner for Sharon.

-- Shalgi told Poloff November 29 that he will give a speech
to the Knesset plenary November 30, in which he will advocate
that the GOI continue to take unilateral actions with regard
to its borders. He advocated that Israel retain the large
West Bank settlement blocs, including Ariel.

-- Likud MK Gilad Erdan told Poloff that nothing major will
transpire within Likud before the party chairman is chosen in
leadership primaries scheduled for December 19. He commented
that suspicion within the party exists about who from Likud
will jump next to Sharon's ship.


7. (U) Election preparations.

-- The Population Administration announced November 27 that
in the upcoming elections, over five million people are
registered to vote.





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