SENATOR LIEBERMAN'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006619

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG TS IS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: SENATOR LIEBERMAN'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER
SHALOM


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b
, d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told Codel
Lieberman November 22 that he is disappointed that Prime
Minister Sharon has left the Likud, and that it is hard to
say what will happen in the general elections four months
from now. Shalom predicted that he and former Prime Minister
Benyamin Netanyahu will win the most votes among the six
candidates competing in the December 19 first round of the
Likud leadership elections, and that the two will face each
other in a decisive second round December 22. He reiterated
prior statements that Palestinian Authority President Abbas
must do more to fight terrorism, and lamented the U.S.
decision to not oppose the electoral participation of Hamas.
Shalom argued for harsh measures against Iran and listed a
number of positive results that he believes have resulted
from American action in Iraq. END SUMMARY.

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SHARON,S EXIT FROM LIKUD
--------------


2. (C) Foreign Minister Shalom expressed his disappointment
that Prime Minister Sharon has left the Likud and taken 14
Likud MKs with him, and said that he fears that more Likud
MKs may follow. He added, though, that those who have left
the Likud might have sensed that they held weak positions
within the party and might not have won electable positions
on the party's Knesset list. Shalom said that it is hard to
say what will happen in the elections four months from now,
but that he is confident that Sharon,s new party will be a
"one-man show," and not be a long-term force.


3. (C) Shalom predicted that he and former Prime Minister
Benyamin Netanyahu will win the most votes of the six
candidates in the December 19 first round of the upcoming
Likud leadership elections, and that the two will face each
other in a decisive second round December 22. (Note: The
party's full 150,000-plus members vote in the leadership
races. The 3,000-member Central Committee chooses the
party's Knesset list. End Note) In response to a question
from Senator Lieberman about whether moderate Likud voters
will participate in the primary election, Shalom said that
moderates will vote for him, and that Shalom,s opponents
will likely claim that his support is from Ariel Sharon,s
supporters. He added that "the problem is that not many of
them will vote."

-------------- -
ABBAS MEETING IN TUNIS AND HAMAS PARTICIPATION
-------------- -


4. (C) Shalom said that Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas, whom he met recently in Tunis, is "much better
than Arafat, and his statements are good, but he must make
the strategic decision to disarm terrorist organizations."
Shalom said that he is 'very upset' about the U.S. decision
to not oppose Hamas participation in the upcoming Palestinian
elections. He rejected the view of some people that election
participation will moderate Hamas. Hamas is now following
Hizballah,s example from Lebanon, he asserted, where joining
the government has made Hizballah more difficult to disarm.

--------------
IRANIAN THREAT TO EUROPE
--------------


5. (C) Shalom warned of Iran,s development of new long-range
missiles that will be able to reach Europe, but said he was
pleased with the recent what he termed European realization
that Iran "is not just Israel,s problem." He argued for the
need to take Iran to the Security Council and to consider
economic and other sanctions on Iran. He claimed that former
German Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder recently told him that
taking Iran to the Security Council would be pointless, since
the UNSC members would likely decline to impose sanctions for
fear of negative economic consequences. Shalom recounted
that he told Schroeder that "a drop in the standard of living
would be better than stopping living."

--------------
POSITIVE RESULTS FROM ACTION IN IRAQ
--------------


6. (C) Shalom listed a number of positive results in the
region that he said have resulted from American action in
Iraq: Saddam Hussein,s loss of power, Muammar Kaddafi,s new
political approach in Libya, elections in Iraq, Lebanon,
Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority, and new democratic
rights for women in Kuwait. He added that Arabs and Muslims
around the world are now less reluctant to talk to Israel,
and that he is very pleased with Israeli progress with
Pakistan and his own recent trip to Tunisia. Shalom said
that the biggest obstacle to improved ties between Israel and
the Muslim world is now Al Qaeda, which he said has targeted
moderate regimes in Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Morocco, and
Indonesia.


7. (U) Codel Lieberman did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable.

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