LIVNI PONDERS LIKUD INTERNAL POLITICS AND HAMAS'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006580

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG PTER IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL COUNTERTERRORISM GOI EXTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: LIVNI PONDERS LIKUD INTERNAL POLITICS AND HAMAS'
PARTICIPATION IN PLC VOTE

REF: TEL AVIV 6357

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for Reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d)

1, (C) Summary: Minister of Justice Tzipi Livni told Deputy
Assistance Secretary Robert Danin on November 18 that Prime
Minister Sharon was playing his cards very close to his vest
and that nobody knew if he planned to establish a new
centrist party. She acknowledged that Likud's core ideology
was no longer clear, and asserted that the common denominator
among members of the Likud leadership now is moderation,
though openly promoting moderate positions is politically
risky. She suggested that if Sharon established a new party,
newly elected Labor Party Chairman Peretz would find it
easier to form a coalition with it. Livni, however,
questioned whether there would be sufficient time for a new
party to prepare for elections and whether it could survive
in the long-term. An ideological discussion must take place
within Likud, whether or not Sharon leaves, she said. Livni
asserted that, while Peretz's victory over Shimon Peres has
made the differences between Likud and Labor more pronounced,
Israeli voters see integrity and leadership abilities in
their candidates as more important. In the upcoming
elections, she suggested that Likud would try to define
itself as a better representative of "authentic Jewish
values." Livni also expressed considerable concern about
the upcoming Palestinian Legislative elections and the
prospects of Hamas and other terrorist organizations
participation. End Summary.

--------------
Will Sharon Leave Likud?
--------------


2. (C) In her November 18 meeting with DAS Danin, Minister
of Justice Livni volunteered that she does not know for
certain whether the divisions within the Likud would
ultimately prompt PM Sharon to leave Likud and establish a
new centrist party. (Note: On November 21 Sharon announced
he was leaving Likud. See septel.) She suggested that the
Labor Party, under its newly elected Chairman Amir Peretz,
may be open to establishing a coalition with a new centrist
party. The National Religious Party (NRP) and Shinui may
also be potential coalition partners.


3. (C) Livni said it was also unclear if a new party would
have sufficient time to prepare for the next elections, which
could occur as early as March 2006. She advised that
organizing financing could also be another obstacle, as the
GOI funds parties based on their representation in the
Knesset. A new party would have no Knesset members. Livni,
however, added that if Likud MKs move to the new party, their
seats could be counted in favor of a proportionate funding
allocation to the new party. She said that if 14-15 seats
shift to the new party, associated funding could flow to that
party without anything even being known about its platform.


4. (C) In response to DAS Danin's observation that
newly-formed Israeli centrist parties historically do well in
their first election but then quickly fade in subsequent
years, Livni acknowledged that this was a legitimate concern
for Likud members contemplating a break, particularly those
hoping for a longer-term political future. Sharon could lead
them to victory, but who leads the party later "is not
Sharon's concern." The question for others is "what happens
the day after?" In Israeli politics, the integrity and
leadership abilities of the candidate attract more votes than
any given political platform, said Livni, somewhat hopefully.
She did not suggest who might best fill Sharon's shoes in
the future.

--------------
What Does Likud Stand For?
--------------


5. (C) Livni advised that, whether Sharon leaves Likud or
not, there will be an ideological debate within the party.
In response to Danin's question on what Likud stands for,
Livni shrugged and said she had recently asked Likud members
of the Knesset the same question but the replies fell short.
She suggested that an assertion that Peretz is on the extreme
left and Likud is not, says little about the party. She
joked that in the past any Likud platform position had to
start with the word "no," such as "no establishment of a
Palestinian State." However, "this is not a vision,"
according to Livni.


6. (C) Livni asserted that the party membership had to
decide if it could accept a leader who would "take them to a
different place." She explained that, although some refuse
to accept change, moderation is the common denominator within
Likud. For example, most members accept that the land must
be divided to secure peace with the Palestinians and security
for Israel. However, in the current environment, many
moderates refrain from participating in debates "for
political reasons," choosing to remain silent.


7. (C) Livni suggested that a huge difference between Likud
and Labor on core issues need not exist because voters will
elect the candidate they feel provides the best future
leadership in proceeding along the right path. With Peretz's
victory, the distinctions between Likud and Labor are better
defined but, at the end of the day, little attention is paid
to the differences in positions. Livni said that over time
Labor went from a socialist party to one, under Barak,
promoting free market initiatives. She added, however, that
Peretz may take Labor back to a more socialist orientation.


9. (C) A possible outcome of a Likud internal debate,
according to Livni, will probably include presenting the
party as the one that best represents the interests of Israel
as a "Jewish and democratic state." Internal values and
integrity should be given the same attention as foreign
affairs, she said.

--------------
Hamas
--------------


10. (C) Livni raised the issue of the upcoming Palestinian
Legislative Elections and Hamas, participation. She said
that she and other Israelis could not understand America,s
position, which she suggested indicated that it was alright
for armed terrorist groups to run as legitimate political
parties. Danin explained the difficulty of this issue from a
policy perspective, explaining that we consider Hamas to be a
terrorist organization, but that we believed that the
Palestinians must produce a solution within their political
context. Livni suggested that it would be much easier for
the Palestinians to take strong positions on Hamas if the
international community were to stake out a strong position
now, rather than wait until after the elections. Livni said
that if anything, President Abbas will be in a weaker
position to take on Hamas, since they and other groups, such
as Islamic Jihad, will be validated and legitimated by their
participation in the elections.


11. (C) COMMENT: Livni comes from a long-time Likud famly,
and was raised on the Revisionist ideology that claimed all
of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean as
Israel,s birthright. While she has been one of the first to
recognize the need for Likud to abandon this core ideology,
she is still struggling to define what will replace it.
Having strongly supported Prime Minister Sharon,s
disengagement initiative, she likely has no place to go other
than with him to his new centrist party. Though she, like
other Likud stalwarts now in their fifties, recognizes that
she may be consigning herself to long-term political oblivion
by doing so if the new party fails to outlast Sharon. Her
repeated concerns about the international community,s
approach to Hamas, participation in PLC elections, is echoed
by many other officials close to Sharon, who worry that the
U.S. may be softening its overall position in the global war
on terror.


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