SHARON, PERETZ TENTATIVELY AGREE ON EARLY ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006532

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON, PERETZ TENTATIVELY AGREE ON EARLY ELECTIONS

REF: A. TEL AVIV 6460

B. TEL AVIV 6247

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reason 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz and Prime Minister
Sharon tentatively agreed November 17 to call for national
elections sometime between the end of February and the end of
March, with both seeking to capitalize on their current
political strength in the polls and move forward with their
parties' political agendas. Labor's final position depends
on a scheduled November 20 Central Committee vote on whether
to leave the coalition. Peretz had earlier warned that
unless Sharon agreed to a date for early elections, Labor
would quit the coalition, leaving Sharon with a 45-MK
minority government and vulnerable to no-confidence motions.
In preparation for making good on his threat, Peretz
collected on November 14 resignation letters from all Labor
Party ministers. In an interview with the daily Yedioth
Ahronoth, Sharon acknowledged that Peretz's threat to leave
the coalition has spurred him to the conclusion that early
elections are best.


2. (C) Peretz's announcement, immediately after winning the
Labor chairmanship November 9, that he intends for Labor to
leave the coalition, mobilized the entire political spectrum
to strategize over early elections. Some Knesset factions
called emergency meetings and some are discussing party
lists. Several opposition parties immediately proposed bills
to dissolve the Knesset, but Peretz convinced the bills'
sponsors to postpone a preliminary vote until November 21,
after his meeting with Sharon. Sharon, meanwhile, is meeting
with other party leaders and has not announced officially
that early elections will occur. During a Likud faction
meeting November 16, Sharon also refrained from addressing
whether he will remain in the Likud Party or form a new,
centrist party. The prospect of Sharon's departure continues
to rattle his Likud colleagues, who recognize that Sharon is
a far stronger candidate against any contender -- and
especially left-leaner Peretz -- than is Likud leadership
contender Bibi Netanyahu. A poll released November 16 shows
that Sharon commands a clear lead of 19 points over
Netanyahu, despite breaking news November 15 that Sharon's
elder son, Omri, a Likud MK, was to plead guilty -- as he did
the next day -- to criminal charges for illegally financing
his father's 1999 Likud leadership campaign.


3. (C) Sharon has so far left unclear whether he is leaving
the coalition door slightly ajar to other parties on the
chance that a new coalition could govern until regularly
scheduled elections in November 2006. Sharon's current
strength, both popularly and within his own party, argue for
accepting early elections that all indicators show will
return Sharon to the premiership for another four-year term.
Knesset sources likewise believe that it would be
disadvantageous for Shinui and Shas, the next largest parties
after Likud and Labor, to join the coalition in the year
leading up to elections. On November 15, Peretz elicited a
commitment from Shinui Party leader Tommy Lapid that Shinui
would support early elections and not join Sharon's coalition
when Labor bolts. Shinui MK Chemi Doron predicted to Poloff
November 15 that Sharon may even decide to jump the gun and
ask President Katsav to dissolve the Knesset before either
Labor leaves the coalition or the Knesset votes, possibly on
November 21, to dissolve itself. If Katsav approves Sharon's
request, and barring the slim possibility that another MK
could seek to form a new government, elections would take
place in about three months (ref B). Doron noted that Sharon
used this course of action in November 2003, when he
compelled early elections some two years ahead of schedule.



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