Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV6385
2005-11-08 14:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

SHARON PICKS SHOWDOWN WITH LIKUD REBELS

Tags:  PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006385 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON PICKS SHOWDOWN WITH LIKUD REBELS

REF: TEL AVIV 6247

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006385

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON PICKS SHOWDOWN WITH LIKUD REBELS

REF: TEL AVIV 6247

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Prime Minister Sharon brought dissension in Likud to
a head November 7 when he knowingly pushed forward his
package of Cabinet nominations to predictable defeat in the
Knesset. In a -- notably -- prepared speech to the Knesset
after it voted down the nominations of Ehud Olmert, Roni
Bar-On, and Ze'ev Boim, 60-54, Sharon blamed the eight Likud
anti-disengagement "rebels" who have opposed him at every
turn over the past year for "foiling a move...aimed at
strengthening the Likud." Observers speculate that, with an
eye toward early elections, Sharon sought the doomed vote to
cast the rebels -- a group that includes his arch-rival
Binyamin Netanyahu -- as not worthy of Likud support. After
the vote, Sharon quickly convened an emergency Cabinet
session to authorize moving the nominations of Olmert and of
Labor Party MK Matan Vilna'i as Science Minister to a Knesset
vote separate from those of Boim and Bar-On, resulting in
their subsequent Knesset confirmation, 71-41 that same night.
(Note: Sharon was under pressure to move forward Olmert's
nomination, since, as of November 9, Olmert's temporary
tenure in that capacity would lapse and the government would
be without a finance minister. End note.)


2. (C) Rather than indicate that he would work toward any
compromise proposal with the rebels, Sharon said late
November 7 after the Knesset rejected his package nominations
that the rebels' opposition to the nominations would result
in "consequences." The Likud rebels went on November 8 to
threaten to oppose Sharon on the budget if he does not
accommodate their demands, one of which reportedly is that he
expand settlement construction in the West Bank. Observers
continue to speculate that the possible moves Sharon is
considering include early elections and/or joining Likud's
more moderate members with those of Labor and Shinui to
create a new centrist party -- the so-called "big bang." In
a "boy who cried wolf" syndrome, however, threats by Sharon
and his inner circles of early elections or of splitting
Likud have reportedly lost credibility among the rebels.
Minister-without-Portfolio Chaim Ramon of the Labor Party
told the Ambassador November 8 that he believes Sharon is
considering whether to go to early primaries in Likud or
break with Likud to form a new party. Whatever the case,
Ramon predicted that the Likud rebels will continue to make
demands on Sharon for their budget support, thereby driving
Sharon to elections in the first half of 2006, rather than in
November 2006 as scheduled. If the Likud rebels vote with
the opposition, as they did in the November 7 vote on the
package of Cabinet nominations, Sharon's coalition dwindles
to 59, two MKs less than an absolute majority. While only a
simple majority is needed to pass the budget, all 120 Knesset
members typically participate in budget votes.


3. (C) Observers are divided on whether, given Sharon's
current popularity, it would be in his interest to seek early
elections. Former Labor Party candidate for prime minister
Amram Mitzna told Poloff November 3 that he could only
speculate on what Sharon would do in the end, since "no one
really knows what (Sharon) is up to." He continued that
given Sharon's current political strength, however, "it is
best (for Sharon) to go to elections as soon as possible, as
time will not serve him." Echoing comments to the Ambassador
by senior Sharon advisor Dov Weissglas, the November 4
Jerusalem Post reported that several Sharon advisors,
including Weissglas, have "reportedly told Sharon to go to
elections as soon as possible...." The article said that
other advisors, including Sharon's son MK Omri Sharon, have
suggested to Sharon that he "keep the government together, at
least until the next crisis comes around."


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