PERES MAY NEED SECOND ROUND VOTE TO TAKE LABOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006353

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: PERES MAY NEED SECOND ROUND VOTE TO TAKE LABOR
CHAIR

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: A November 3 poll and Labor Party sources
indicate that Shimon Peres' anticipated first-round victory
over contender Amir Peretz in the November 9 Labor Party
primaries could be in jeopardy absent a high voter turnout
and the withdrawal of the two other contenders. Rattled by
Peretz's dramatic jump in the polls this fall, Peres appealed
November 3 to Matan Vilna'i and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, with 15
percent and 11 percent of party support, respectively, to
withdraw from the race and place their support behind him.
Polls still show Peres winning a significant victory in any
second round. End Summary.


2. (C) A November 3 Dahuf Institute poll shows that in the
event of a 60 percent voter turnout in the Labor Party
primaries, Histadrut Chair Peretz would receive 34 percent of
the vote and interim party Chair Peres 37 percent. Until
recently, polls have shown Peres winning at least the 41
percent necessary for a first-round win. With a 70 percent
turnout, however, support for Peres jumps to 41 percent and
for Peretz drops to 30 percent. Observers attribute the
better low-turnout numbers for Peretz to his better
organizational skills. An upbeat Peretz told Poloff October
31 that he attributes his rise in popularity to his tireless
campaigning. He questioned the accuracy of earlier polls,
commenting that he "cannot see how Peres could get 20 percent
more" in the earlier polls when Peretz has been working
"morning to evening" and "going around the country"
campaigning. Peretz said that when out campaigning he feels
sure of people's support for him and did not get the sense
that many people support Peres. Former Labor Party Chair
Amram Mitzna told poloff November 3 that Peretz has an
advantage in motivating his supporters to the polls since he
has a "very good organization -- the best for the day of
elections." Labor Party organizer for the northern region
Nimrod Vizansky told Poloff November 3 that Peretz can rely
on Histadrut members to come out to support him, and he
accused Peretz of using his position to pressure Histadrut
members to vote for him. Inclement weather could keep those
Labor voters who would vote for Peres from the polls,
according to Vilansky.


3. (C) The November 3 poll also shows Peres winning with 54
percent to 41 percent for Peretz in a runoff vote, which
would be required if no candidate obtains 41 percent of the
vote on November 9. The assumption is that those who voted
for Ben-Eliezer and Vilna'i in the first round would shift
their support to Peres in the second round. Peres reportedly
wants to win in the first round, and he appealed to
Ben-Eliezer and Vilna'i November 3 to drop out of the race
and place their support behind him. Ehud Barak, who recently
withdrew from the race and threw his support to Peres, met
with Ben-Eliezer and Vilna'i November 3 to urge them to
follow his example. Thus far, the two have refused to bow
out.


4. (C) Despite immediate post-poll reports of a possible move
to postpone the primaries, Peretz campaign manager MK Yuli
Tamir told Poloff November 4 that the Labor Party internal
court decided against moving to do so. Vilansky speculated
that Peres supporters, fearing a Peretz victory, were behind
this attempt to delay the vote, but Mitzna and Tamir
dismissed this view.

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JONES