UNTSO HEAD MGEN LILLEY SAYS PKO CAN LEAVE WHEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 006262

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IPA, IO/PSC (GERALD ANDERSON)
PENTAGON FOR OSD (JAMES ANDERSON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015
TAGS: PREL KPKO MARR PGOV PTER LE SY EG IS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: UNTSO HEAD MGEN LILLEY SAYS PKO CAN LEAVE WHEN
ISRAEL SIGNS PEACE TREATIES WITH SYRIA AND LEBANON


Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO)
Chief of Staff Major General (MGEN) Clive Lilley briefed
Ambassador Jones October 27 on UNTSO's mission in Israel and
the region, noting how it supports UN peacekeeping operations
in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and Syria (UNDOF),and that its mission
would end whenever Israel signs peace treaties with those two
countries. The New Zealand general -- accompanied by his
military assistant, LT Clayton Willocks, and his political
advisor, Francesco Manca -- recounted what he had learned
from a recent tour through Syria and Lebanon: (a) Lebanon is
still fragile and in need of UNIFIL's presence along the
Israel-Lebanon border, and (b) Syrians value stability above
everything, even if they have nothing to show for it. The
general shared what he said was the little he had learned
from his observers patrolling out of Ismaliyah, Egypt, about
recent Egyptian counterterrorism activity in the Sinai.
Lilley said that he values the American officers assigned to
UNTSO, but lamented that he cannot use his American plans
officer to the fullest due to travel restrictions placed on
him out of concern for his safety. The general said he had
raised the issue in New York and turned over a list of force
protection options he can offer for the plans officer, but
said he had not yet received a response from the U.S. side to
his proposals. END SUMMARY.

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UNTSO COS BRIEFS ON UNTSO'S UNIQUENESS...
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2. (U) MGEN Lilley said that while UNTSO's focus is now on
Israel and neighboring Syria and Lebanon, UNTSO's regional
mandate enables it to maintain presences in Israel, Syria,
Lebanon and Egypt. He said its job will be done whenever
peace agreements are signed between Israel and Lebanon, and
between Israel and Syria. He added that if peace agreements
were signed, UNTSO's "unarmed, commissioned and
cost-effective officers" could be asked to stay on, even
after UNIFIL and UNDOF depart.


3. (U) Lilley explained that UNTSO patrols the Sinai
peninsula out of Ismaliyah in conjunction with the
Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) because Egypt wanted
a UN presence to remain after the 1979 Israel-Egypt Peace
Treaty was signed. He said he and his senior staff make
calls on Egyptian officials one or two times a year. He said
that UNTSO is no longer present in Jordan as neither Israel
nor Jordan wanted it to remain after the peace treaty between
those two countries was signed. Lilley said that UNTSO
monitors Israel-Jordan relations through open sources, and
that he makes calls on Jordanian officials occasionally.

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NOTES HOW UNTSO DIFFERS FROM UNDOF AND UNIFIL
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4. (U) Explaining how UNTSO is unique as a peacekeeping
force, Lilley said that UNTSO:

-- helped establish the UN Disengagement Force (UNDOF) on the
Golan Heights, and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
Lilley said that UNIFIL monitors the Blue Line and "the
presence of the Lebanese state" on the Lebanese side of the
Israel-Lebanon border. He characterized UNIFIL as static,
while UNTSO is more mobile.

-- is comprised of unarmed, commissioned officers and
civilians sent by 76 UN member states, while UNDOF and UNIFIL
are comprised of armed military personnel provided by
troop-contributing countries under Chapter 6 of the UN
Charter;

-- is funded out of the UN's regular budget, and is very cost
effective;

-- reports directly to the UN Secretary General on an annual
basis, unlike UNDOF and UNIFIL, which report every six months
to the UNSC;

-- does not "attract the flak" from the Israeli government
that UNIFIL does. Lilley added that he feels the GOI's
criticism of UNIFIL is unjust, and that he categorically
denies GOI allegations that UNIFIL allows Hizballah to fire
from UNIFIL positions;

-- is at an advantage compared to other UN peacekeeping
operations (PKOs) in the region because the Palestinian issue
is not part of its mandate, and UNTSO restricts itself from
travel to the Occupied Territories.


5. (U) Lilley noted that he has authorized UNIFIL and UNDOF
force commanders operational control over his officers to
carry out their respective missions and specific tasks on the
condition that his officers remain unarmed and act consistent
with UNTSO's mandate. UNTSO has responsibility for
logistical support of UNIFIL and UNDOF, as well as for its
own logistics, housing, supply and personnel issues.

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SAYS POST-DISENGAGEMENT VIOLENCE HAS AFFECTED UNTSO
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6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about how
disengagement affects UNTSO, Lilley noted that the Israeli
clampdown on the West Bank following post-disengagement
terror attacks has affected UNTSO because some of its local
workers come from the West Bank. Lilley observed that UNTSO
could potentially be affected if the mandate of the
Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) in the Sinai is
modified in connection with the Egypt-Israel agreement on the
Philadelphi Corridor.

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UNTSO CHIEF EXPECTS NORTHERN BORDER TO CONTINUE AS IS....
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7. (U) Lilley said that UNTSO has 62 observers in southern
Lebanon, based in Tyre and Camp Naquora. These observers
operate alongside UNIFIL. Lilley said UNTSO observers can
also cross Israel's northern border at Rosh Hanikrah and
reach Beirut in four hours from Jerusalem.


8. (C) Lilley said that he expects the number and nature of
incidents along the Blue Line to remain as is for the year to
come -- "like a sine wave, rather than a saw tooth." He said
that neither the GOI nor Hizballah wish to see an upset along
the border, as Hizballah is trying to transform the
perception of it into a legitimate, political entity, while
the GOI will be gearing up for elections in 2006.

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DESCRIBES SITUATION IN LEBANON AS ANXIOUS, FRAGILE...
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9. (C) UNTSO Political Adviser Francesco Manca, who had just
returned from a tour through Lebanon and Syria, said that his
interlocutors in Lebanon were mainly concerned about UNSCR
1559, the assassination of former Lebanese PM Hariri, and the
fallout from these developments. He said he saw more
Lebanese soldiers in uniform out on the streets throughout
the country than he had ever seen before. The general
impression he received from his discussions with people was
that their lives were not improving, and that the recent
string of assassinations (including Hariri's) had created
significant anxiety.


10. (C) Lilley said he is skeptical about reports that Syria
is smuggling arms to Palestinian camps in Lebanon, observing
that the Palestinian camps in Lebanon already have enough
arms "to last them for years." Lilley acknowledged that
concerns abound about these camps, but said he agrees with
the consensus view that Lebanese PM Siniora has been "doing
the right things" with respect to the camps, the four
Lebanese generals arrested in connection with PM Hariri's
assassination, and Lebanon's overall approach to the Mehlis
investigation. Lilley explained that the Lebanese PM is
restrained by Hizballah's presence in the GOL, but is
effectively exploiting chaos within the Palestinian community
to carve out more room to maneuver.


11. (C) Noting his understanding that the Israelis are
considering calling for a reduction in UNIFIL's manpower,
Lilley said he believes that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
are not capable or ready enough to deploy in UNIFIL-monitored
areas along the Israel-Lebanon border. He noted, however,
that a British training team is helping to prepare the LAF,
and said he thinks that the LAF are mainly lacking in
equipment. Lilley anticipated that the international
community will eventually feel the need to tell the LAF that
it must deploy along the Israel-Lebanon border. In this
case, he believes the Lebanese police will follow the LAF,
not precede them.


12. (C) Manca cautioned that, contrary to what he understands
the Israeli government believes, terminating UNIFIL's mandate
would not put pressure on the GOL to deploy the LAF along the
Israel-Lebanon border. While he acknowledged that there is
no reason why the GOL could not deploy LAF observers in
UNIFIL positions right now, Manca said that there are "plenty
of other indicators that the GOL does not have the will to
fill in where UNIFIL is currently deployed." He added that
the fragile situations in Syria and Lebanon suggest that the
last thing the international community should do is pull
UNIFIL out. Lilley said he expects that "healthy"
discussions in New York in December will likely lead to an
extension of UNIFIL's current mandate for another six months,
and noted that the Russians are calling for maintenance of
the status quo.

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SAYS SYRIA LOVES STABILITY, EVEN IF NO BENEFITS ACCRUE
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13. (C) Explaining UNTSO's connection to UNDOF, Lilley said
that UNTSO observers based in Tiberias, Israel, can cross the
Israel-Syria border through the Alpha-Bravo gate with UNDOF
escorts and proceed to the Syrian-held portion of the Golan
Heights, where they conduct operational patrols and inspect
missiles and tanks in zones on both sides of the Israel-Syria
border.


14. (C) According to Lilley, the Russian Ambassador to Syria
does not believe that Syria's interior minister committed
suicide as was announced on October 12. Instead, Lilley said
that the Russian Ambassador thinks it must have been an
"inside job made to look like suicide." Commenting on CNN's
October 13 interview of the Syrian President, Lilley
expressed concern that Asad's "open, confident" demeanor may
make it harder to justify military action against him, should
the situation eventually call for that. At the same time, he
thought Asad offered "too little, too late," and lamented
that Syria loves stability, even while it has nothing to show
for it.

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...TELLS WHAT HE KNOWS ABOUT EGYPT'S CT OPERATIONS IN SINAI
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15. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's question about
Egyptian counterterror operations in Jebel Halil, Lilley said
that UNTSO observers in Ismaliyah had confirmed that the
Egyptian military had detained 500-600 persons and then
attacked one or two terror camps in the Sinai, rounding up
mostly "terrorists, pimps and smugglers." He said he had
read that one of the camps was surrounded by minefields and
barbed wire, but that he had not received confirmation of
this from his observers.

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... SAYS U.S. TROOPS HIGHLY VALUED, BUT HAMSTRUNG BY REGS
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16. (C) Lilley noted that he has an American officer assigned
to UNTSO's observation base in Ismaliyah, and two other
American officers assigned to UNTSO headquarters in
Jerusalem. He said there are no officers in Lebanon as a
result of the February 1988 kidnapping and murder of UNTSO
Chief Military Observer LTCOL Richard Higgins. He said he
raised the matter of the absence of U.S. observers in Lebanon
at UN headquarters in New York and with the U.S. military
representative at USUN, but was told that the U.S. could
offer an American observer in Lebanon only if UNTSO could
provide adequate force protection. Without providing
details, Lilley claimed that he can provide the force
protection, and said he gave his interlocutors in New York a
list of options, but has not received an answer to his
proposal.


17. (C) Lilley noted that UNTSO's chief plans officer in
Jerusalem has been an American since 1999. He said his
current chief plans officer's movements have been restricted
for force protection concerns for years, and the officer is
not allowed to travel to Lebanon and Syria. Lilley
underscored that he appreciates having U.S. officers on his
staff, but stressed that he cannot utilize his plans officer
effectively with such restrictions applied to him. As an
example, he noted that evacuation plans that the American
officer recently submitted for his review were inadequate
because the officer had to rely on questionnaires farmed out
to officers in the field, some of whom tasked them to
low-ranking personnel who had little personal knowledge of
the information they ended up providing. The Ambassador
suggested that Lilley may want to raise the issue with the
U.S. defense attaches in Damascus and Beirut.

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