Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV6247
2005-10-31 17:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

SHARON POSTPONES PROBLEMATIC KNESSET VOTE ON

Tags:  PGOV IS KDEM ELECTIONS GOI EXTERNAL 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006247 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS KDEM ELECTIONS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON POSTPONES PROBLEMATIC KNESSET VOTE ON
CABINET APPOINTMENTS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006247

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS KDEM ELECTIONS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON POSTPONES PROBLEMATIC KNESSET VOTE ON
CABINET APPOINTMENTS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: With only hours to go before an October 31
Knesset vote on -- and possible defeat of -- his Cabinet
nominations of three Likud loyalists, including Ehud Olmert
as finance minister, Prime Minister Sharon postponed the vote
by a week in order to rally support and gauge his next steps.
While he commands a nominal Knesset majority of 66 votes,
out of 120, so-called rebels within his own party need muster
only seven votes against to block the nominations. Sharon
likely has the votes for Olmert, but not for the other two
nominees, and needs to either bring into line a handful of
Likud opponents, or negotiate support for the appointments
from non-Likud Knesset members, probably via budget
allocations to those members' favored programs. Sharon
refuses to submit the nominations separately. Should the PM
fail to get the necessary votes within Likud, opposition
members could transform the vote into a no-confidence motion
in his government. PM Advisor Dov Weissglas told the
Ambassador late October 30 that the Prime Minister is sick
and tired of putting up with the rebels in his own party, and
asserted that if Sharon were to lose the then-scheduled
October 31 Cabinet appointment vote, he would immediately
call for new elections -- seeking a new mandate for another
four-year term. End Summary.

--------------
MINISTERIAL MUSICAL CHAIRS
--------------


2. (SBU) Sharon's nominations reward loyalists who helped
him successfully stave off the efforts of Netanyahu and
Landau, first to stop Gaza disengagement and then to unseat
him from the Likud chairmanship. The Cabinet shifts move
Minister Ehud Olmert from his current Industry and Trade
position to the Finance portfolio left open following MK
Netanyahu's resignation. Olmert has been acting Finance
Minister since Netanyahu's departure, but this temporary term
in office ends soon. Likud MK Ronni Bar-On is to serve as
Industry and Trade minister, replacing Olmert. Minister
Matan Vilnai (Labor) will serve as minister of Science and
Technology, a post that he assumed in an acting capacity
several months ago. Finally, Likud MK Ze'ev Boim will leave

his post as a deputy defense minister to head the Immigration
Absorption Ministry, leaving Acting Absorption Minister and
Justice Minister Tsipi Livni free to manage the Israel
Broadcasting Authority, a responsibility she will assume over
objections of the Labor Party. Boim will also serve as the
liaison between the Cabinet and the Knesset, a position that
Minister (without portfolio) Tzachi Hanegbi has filled.
Hanegbi, in turn, will be responsible for monitoring progress
on implementing the "Jerusalem Envelope" plans. (NB: Sharon
has named Hanegbi as his representative in Israel's strategic
dialogue with the U.S. End Note.)

--------------
LIKUD REBELS BALK AT SHARON APPOINTMENTS
--------------


3. (SBU) PM Sharon invited all 40 Likud Knesset members to
his residence in Jerusalem the evening of October 30, just
after the Cabinet formally endorsed his nominations, and less
than 24 hours before the scheduled Knesset vote.
Significantly, Coalition leader MK Gidon Sa'ar, who wobbled
during disengagement and sided with Netanyahu in pressing for
early Likud primaries, joined the gathering, as did Foreign
Affairs Committee Chairman Yuval Steinitz, a harsh critic of
many Sharon policies. Sa'ar reportedly is pressing
dissidents to support Sharon on the nominations, citing
Sharon's win in the September Central Committee vote that
avoided early primaries. The core of Sharon's intra-Likud
opposition -- Netanyahu, and Uzi Landau as well as MKs
Ratzon, Levy, Blumenthal, Gorlovsky, and Edelstein -- were
no-shows, although six other "rebel" MKs did attend (Gilad
Erdan, Yehiel Hazan, Ehud Yatom, Moshe Kahlon, Haim Katz, and
Lea Nass). MK Yatom commented to the press that "There is no
connection between the battle over the path (of Likud) and
the prime minister's invitation," but Israeli pundits were
busy October 31 factoring attendance figures into
calculations of the PM's options in the Knesset since as
little as seven votes could be enough to topple Sharon's
governing coalition if the appointments vote morphs into a
no-confidence motion. Some of the rebels are reportedly
demanding the return of Landau, who was fired in 2004, and
Sharansky, who quit in 2005, to the Government, a deal that
Sharon will undoubtedly refuse just as he refused Netanyahu's
demand to move up Likud primaries.

-------------- --------------
MINISTERIAL APPOINTMENTS TEST SHARON'S STRENGTH IN THE KNESSET
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Broad support exists within the Likud Party and the
Knesset generally for Olmert's move from his current
portfolio (Industry, Trade and Labor) to Finance, where he
currently serves as the acting minister. A Shas Party
advisor told poloff October 31 that his party would support
Olmert's nomination but would not support the two other
nominations. Likud rebels are threatening to withhold
support for Bar-On and Boim, whose appointments are viewed --
by the rebels and everyone else -- as rewards for supporting
Sharon during the disengagement process. The Cabinet
appointments were submitted as a "package" in order to
prevent Sharon's opponents from rejecting Bar-On and Boim,
and Sharon has squelched rumors -- emanating from Olmert's
camp -- that he will split the appointments and allow the
Knesset a separate vote on Olmert, by reiterating strongly
that he wants a single vote on the three. Commenting to the
press on these Cabinet appointments, Netanyahu called it "a
corrupt deal... Sharon bought votes in return for a pottage
of positions." Last March, Netanyahu effectively vetoed
ministerial appointments for Bar-On and Boim, ostensibly on
financial grounds that "new ministers ... will cut education,
welfare and defense budgets." Now, some powerful Labor Party
coalition members are sounding a similar theme, and MKs
Peretz and Mitzna have said they will vote against the Bar-On
and Boim appointments. Several Shinui MKs told poloff October
31 that they will vote against all three.

-------------- --------------
NEXT STEPS: RESIGNATION AND DISSOLUTION OF THE KNESSET?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The PM's adviser, Dov Weissglas, told the Ambassador
late October 30 that the Prime Minister is tired of the
failure of Likud rebels to support him and his decisions.
Sharon, in Weissglas' view, feels that he is at his peak and
that the opposition is divided. Weissglas asserted that if
the October 31 Cabinet vote were to fail, this combination of
frustration and confidence will drive the Prime Minister to
dissolve the Knesset and proceed to new elections, allowing
Sharon to secure a new, four-year mandate. The postponement,
which we have been told by PM adviser Shalom Tourgeman came
at the request of the rebels and was accepted to allow
tempers to cool, gives Sharon the option of at least two
easier, less disruptive courses before facing that decision:
try to secure within the week enough votes to win the
appointments as a package, or break apart the package and
press for each candidate individually.


6. (C) Note: The option of moving for new elections is
available to Sharon under Article 29 of the Basic law. Were
Sharon to resign the premiership and secure the President's
agreement to dissolve the Knesset, the President would have
at least two opportunities to identify another MK capable of
forming a government. That process could stretch over some
65 days. In the more likely event that no Knesset member is
found who is capable of forming a viable government, the law
calls for elections to be held within 90 days. Sharon could,
instead of himself calling for dissolution of the Knesset,
cast the appointments vote as a "vote of confidence" in his
government, a move that could up the ante for coalition
members who are considering voting against the appointments.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES