SHARON STAYS HIS COURSE FOLLOWING HADERA BOMBING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 006228

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPAL KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS COUNTERTERRORISM GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: SHARON STAYS HIS COURSE FOLLOWING HADERA BOMBING

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: The October 26 suicide bombing of the
Hadera market by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) that
claimed the lives of five Israelis and wounded 20 has
resulted in a cycle of violence that -- barring significant
additional casualties -- experience indicates will be
short-term. As it has done following attacks in the past,
the GOI has temporarily frozen all high-level talks with
the PA, but continues contacts on lower levels, including
negotiations on Rafah and the crossings. The GOI's
security response has also followed established patterns,
with the IDF employing targeted killings, precision air-
and artillery strikes, arrests, low-level overflights, and
movement restrictions against the Palestinians. The
Israeli press reacted with stoic resignation, generally
refraining from attacks on disengagement or Sharon, but
often questioning the utility of the security barrier.
Sharon remains in control on the Israeli side, and seems
determined to continue on his previous course even ordering
the evacuation of several recently-established outposts
yesterday. Barring additional terrorist attacks involving
Israeli casualties and/or attacks out of Gaza, we expect
that the GOI will be prepared to resume high-level talks
with the PA well before the PLC election. End summary.

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Sharon-Abbas Meeting on Hold, but GOI-PA Contacts Continue
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2. (S) As it has done following attacks in the past, the
GOI has temporarily frozen all high-level contacts with the
PA and renewed calls for Abbas to act against extremists.
On October 27, Sharon announced that he would not meet with
Abbas under such conditions, effectively postponing a
summit that had originally been scheduled for the beginning
of October. Sharon also cautioned that "if the PA does not
take serious and tangible steps against terrorism, there
will be no diplomatic progress." DefMin Mofaz made the
most pessimistic comments, telling the press that "I am not
sure that we will ever be able to reach a peace agreement
with the current Palestinian leadership. We will have to
wait for the next generation. The most we can expect in
the meantime is perhaps another interim agreement."
Several high-ranking IDF officers have echoed these
thoughts in conversations with DAO, saying they do not
believe they have a Palestinian security partner.


3. (C) Working-level discussions between the GOI and PA on
technical issues related to Gaza crossings continue. Gabi
Golan, Advisor to the Prime Minister for Planning and
Development, told EconCouns on October 28 that significant
progress has been made with the Egyptians on details and
protocols for Rafah and that -- despite Hadera -- the GOI
is prepared to meet with PA representative on October 30 to
discuss the issue. The USG representative on Wolfensohn's
team confirmed that trilateral talks of the Rafah Steering
Group are on track for October 30. The PM's foreign policy
advisor, Shalom Tourgeman, also confirmed this to the
Ambassador noting that if necessary, additional meetings on
Rafah would be held on Tuesday, November 1, and Saturday
evening, November 5. Tourgeman added that he should be
ready to hold discussions on the study of transportation
links between the West Bank and Gaza with AID consultants
by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

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Determined -- and Predictable -- IDF Response Targets PIJ
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4. (S) The response by Israeli security services to the
Hadera bombing has followed patterns set after September's
rocket attacks from Gaza, the July bombing in Netanya, and
the February bombing at the Stage Disco in Tel Aviv. IDF
officers have told DAO that following disengagement the IDF
is seeking to establish and maintain a robust level of
deterrence, with a particular focus on Gaza. The IDF
continues to use tactics that it is has employed in the
past, including:

-- targeted killings: On October 27, UNRWA reported that an
IDF aircraft fired on a car in Gaza's Jabalya refugee camp,
killing seven -- including PIJ operative Shadi Mahanna --
and wounding 19 others. Targeted killings never fully
ceased despite a lull during disengagement.

-- airstrikes and artillery fire: As it did in September,
the IDF has shelled areas in northern Gaza used to launch
rocket attacks into Israel, including access roads. UNRWA
reports that an electrical transformer near Gaza City was
also hit, resulting in power outages. According to UNRWA,
Palestinians have launched 13 rockets toward Israel in the
past two days.

-- arrests: On October 27 the IDF detained approximately 17
suspects in raids near Tulkarm and in Jenin. In the past
few months, Israeli security services have arrested
hundreds of suspects in the West Bank. The IDF has also
increased troop strength along the Gaza border.
Newly-appointed IDF Chief of Operations (J3) MG Gadi
Eisencott and Deputy Chief of Military Intelligence BG Yosi
Kupperwasser both told DAO that they believe the GOI will
avoid using ground operations for deterrence operations in
Gaza in the near term. Eisencott cautioned, however, that
another attack like that in Hadera could result in a
large-scale IDF offensive in the northern West Bank.

-- overflights: At an event in Tel Aviv on October 27, PA
Deputy PM and Information Minister Nabil Shaath told poloff
that IDF aircraft have broken the sound barrier over Gaza
repeatedly each night since the Hadera bombing.

-- movement restrictions: Following shootings in the West
Bank last week, the GOI tightened restrictions for
Palestinians in the area. These measures include increased
numbers of checkpoints and roadblocks, reported limitations
on the use of private automobiles, and resulted in the
de-facto separation of the northern West Bank from other
Palestinian areas.

-- closure of crossings: The Karni and Erez crossings
between Gaza and Israel were closed following the Hadera
attack, although Israeli officials maintain that this
action was the result of concrete threats against the
crossings themselves and not a result of the Hadera
bombing. UNRWA reports that Erez is now open for
internationals only. Karni is open on October 28 only for
food products entering Gaza. Although prices in Gaza have
increased on some goods, such as sugar and meat, contacts
report no serious shortage of food. Consumption generally
increases, however, in preparation for the Eid holiday, so
the impact of crossing closures, and of abbreviated hours
when crossings are open, may be more apparent in the coming
days.


5. (C) The IDF's primary target has been Islamic Jihad,
which claimed that the Hadera market bombing was in
retaliation for the October 25 killing by Israeli security
forces of Luay Saadi, its military leader in the Tulkarm
area. The GOI has nonetheless also arrested other
suspects, including Hamas members. PM Sharon announced
that "we must seek out these murderers and strike at them
wherever they are found," and said Israel's response "will
be wide-ranging and continuous until we have brought about
the cessation of terrorism." IDF Chief of Staff Halutz
declared "a war to the bitter end" against PIJ. Halutz is
on record as willing to assume a higher level of collateral
damage after disengagement, and he openly quarreled with
his then chief of operations about the appropriate response
to rocket attacks in September. Press reports indicate
disagreements between Halutz, who supports a
take-off-the-gloves approach, and new Shin Bet Chief
Diskin, who has cautioned against non-surgical strikes that
could draw other Palestinian factions into the fight.

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Press Reaction and Questions About the Barrier's Utility
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6. (U) The Israeli press reacted to the latest suicide
bombing and IDF response with stoic resignation, largely
refraining from attacks on Sharon or disengagement. Noting
that the Netanya bomber had passed through a gate in the
security barrier and speculating that the Hadera terrorist
had done the same, several editorials questioned the
utility of the fence. Alex Fishman wrote in the
Hebrew-language Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest
circulation newspaper, that "after the terror attack in
Hadera, we find ourselves back at square one, back in the
same place we were in 2004, before Arafat's death." Ben
Caspit, a senior analyst for Ma'ariv, the country's other
mass circulation Hebrew-language daily, said, "we have to
get used to it: this will happen occasionally ... The
most we can expect ... is to maintain a tolerable rate of
terror attacks, one every few months instead of a few every
month, and the understanding that it won't be easy, it
won't be quick, and it won't always be pleasant." The
English-language Jerusalem Post, anticipating calls for a
restrained Israeli reaction to the Hadera bombing, called
on the international community to "spare us the lectures
about how defending ourselves is futile and the wisdom of
'humanitarian' measures that lay the groundwork for the
next atrocity."

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Sharon Remains on Course
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7. (C) Comment: The cycle of violence after the Hadera
bombing closely follows previous patterns. Strong
statements by Sharon, Mofaz, and others should be read at
face value, as determination to protect Israeli citizens at
almost any cost, but not as unconditional pledges to pursue
unlimited punitive action absent additional terrorist
attacks. With the Knesset winter session beginning on
October 31, Sharon will again face routine no-confidence
motions submitted by opposition parties that have little
chance of mustering the necessary 61-vote majority. Sharon
remains in control on the Israeli side, and -- while
sensitive to threats from his political right -- seems
determined to continue on his previous course. Sharon and
Mofaz (a loyal Sharon supporter who often takes the harder
line in public) have not been deterred by the Hadera attack
from ordering the forced evacuation of several new outposts
established on October 26 near the settlements of Alon
Moreh, Qedummim, Efrata, and Qiryat Arba. Barring
additional terrorist attacks involving Israeli casualties,
including rocket or suicide attacks originating in Gaza
that result in Israeli deaths, we expect that the GOI will
be prepared to resume high-level talks with the PA well
before the PLC election.


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