AMB. JONES' 9/26 MEETING WITH ISRAELI MOD'S GILAD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 005864

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE FOR NEA/AIP
DEFENSE FOR OSD (JAMES ANDERSON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2015
TAGS: PREL MARR MASS KPAL KWBG EG IS GOI EXTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: AMB. JONES' 9/26 MEETING WITH ISRAELI MOD'S GILAD
FOCUSES ON EGYPT, GAZA, HAMAS ACTIVITY AND PA ELECTIONS

REF: A. TEL AVIV 05794

B. TEL AVIV 05137

Classified By: Amb. Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S/NF) In a September 26 meeting with the Ambassador,
Israeli MOD Political-Military Bureau Chief Amos Gilad
indicated that his September 25 meetings in Egypt to discuss
the Rafah passage on the Egypt-Gaza border yielded no
breakthroughs. Gilad said the Israelis prefer to open Rafah
passage after six months, while the Egyptians prefer to open
it by mid-January -- before Palestinian elections and the
Haj. Gilad said the Egyptians are controlling the Egypt-Gaza
border better than before, and praised them for quickly
sealing the border when asked by Israel to do so. Requesting
that his information and sources be strictly protected, Gilad
said Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman recounted to
him the details of a recent visit to Cairo by Syrian
President Al-Asad. Gilad cited Suleiman as saying that
Al-Asad "threatened" Egypt not to yield to U.S. pressure to
isolate Syria, or suffer Syria's playing the "Palestinian
card."


2. (S/NF) Summary, cont.: Gilad said he warned Suleiman
that continued terrorist activity on the part of Hamas will
not be tolerated, and that Hamas participation in January
2006 Palestinian elections will "destroy everything."
According to Gilad, Suleiman said Egypt will take steps to
ensure that there will be no elections in January, but did
not elaborate. Gilad portrayed the Palestinian Authority
(PA) as a "sinking ship" suffering from interpersonal
rivalries among PA President Abbas, PM Quraya', Civil Affairs
Minister Dahlan and Interior Minister Yusif. He said PA
President Abbas needs to assert his leadership and act upon
it, and suggested that the U.S. and Egypt present Abbas with
that choice. Gilad cautioned that U.S. economic assistance
to the PA will not help to stabilize the security situation
in the Gaza Strip. Gilad said he is hopeful that an
Israel-Egypt security dialogue can be started up, and
expressed his hope that the U.S.-Israel security dialogue
will be restarted now that the issue of Israeli exports to
China has been resolved. Gilad expressed his concerns about
developments in Iran and Jordan, and said that Israel has
very little information about Iran. He asked the Ambassador
about his views on the future of Iraq, and was told that the
U.S. is cautiously optimistic about Iraq's future, seeing
positive indicators in increased Sunni political
participation and the continued training of Iraqi security
forces. END SUMMARY.

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GILAD SUGGESTS NO BREAKTHROUGH ON RAFAH
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3. (S) Gilad indicated that his September 25 meetings in
Egypt to discuss the Rafah passage between Egypt and the Gaza
Strip yielded no breakthroughs. Gilad said he conveyed to
Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman that Israel could
allow the Rafah passage to open after six months. Suleiman
reportedly conveyed Egypt's preference for opening after four
months -- in mid-January before the Palestinian elections and
the Haj. Gilad praised the Egyptians for responding quickly
to Israeli calls to stop the flow of human traffic along the
Egypt-Gaza border, noting that it took the Egyptians only 30
minutes to respond to Israel's request to seal the border on
Friday, September 23. Gilad acknowledged that the Egyptians
opened it for a short time afterwards to allow some people to
cross, but said this was to "let off some steam" from the
Gaza Strip, and clarified that Israel had no problem with the
temporary flow which Minister Mofaz had approved. Gilad said
the Egyptians are controlling the Egypt-Gaza border better
than when they took control of it from the IDF.

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GILAD RECOUNTS WHAT EGYPTIANS TOLD HIM OF AL-ASAD VISIT
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4. (S/NF) Asking that the information be kept in the
strictest of confidence and not attributed to anyone, Gilad
said that Suleiman recounted to him a recent visit of Syrian
President Bashar Al-Asad to Egypt. Gilad said that Suleiman
told him that Al-Asad threatened the Egyptians with the
"Palestinian card," saying Syria would play it if Egypt
succumbed to U.S. pressure to isolate Syria. According to
Gilad, Al-Asad told Suleiman that he wants to develop
political cooperation among Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria.
When the proposal was made to Egyptian President Mubarak,
Mubarak reportedly told Al-Asad that Egypt would not
cooperate with Syria, and would not countenance Syrian
threats. According to Gilad, Suleiman said that Mubarak told
Al-Asad that he should behave in his relations with the U.S.
Gilad said, "It appears the Egyptians do not like Al-Asad,
especially as he appears to have given the Palestinians a
'free hand.'" Gilad stressed the "utmost secrecy" of his
discussion with Suleiman, noting that Suleiman told him that
he does not want it to be known that Suleiman had invited
Gilad to Egypt.

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GILAD DELIVERS STERN MESSAGE ON PALESTINIAN QASSAM LAUNCHES
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5. (S) During his three-hour meeting with Suleiman, Gilad
said he conveyed a "stern, severe" message from Israeli
DefMin Mofaz to the Egyptians about the Palestinians'
launching of Qassam missiles into Israel: "This cannot
continue. The mood in Israel is very bad." To emphasize the
seriousness of the message, Gilad said, he refused dinner
with Suleiman. According to Gilad, Suleiman "spoke bitterly
of Hamas," and portrayed it as a common enemy akin to the
Muslim Brotherhood. Referring to the Qassam attacks, Gilad
told the Ambassador, "It is humiliating to us. We have to
respond." Gilad said the Qassam launches were conducted by
Hamas to cover up for its mistake that led to the fatal
explosion of Qassams at a rally in Jabalya refugee camp on
September 23. He said that Hamas was careless in the
particular incident, but should not be underestimated: "They
are very disciplined, much more so than the PA security
forces." Gilad predicted that Hamas's weekend Qassam
launches will come back to haunt them. Recalling earlier
discussions he has had with the Egyptians, Gilad said the
Egyptians are shocked by the scope of terror organizations in
the Sinai. He said the Egyptians initially told him the
terrorist networks were 100 percent Egyptian, but eventually
admitted they are run by Wahhabi organizations out of Saudi
Arabia. Gilad said he believes the latter, although he
emphasized he did not see a Saudi government hand at work in
this case.


6. (S) Gilad said he will meet with Egyptian Major General
Mustafa Bucheri on September 27 to discuss possible Egyptian
training of Palestinian security personnel. Gilad described
Bucheri as a low-key, self-effacing but very knowledgeable
expert who is in charge of Egypt's intelligence liaison in
Gaza. According to Gilad, Bucheri is in charge of 46
Palestinian advisers in Gaza, and wants to open military
training camps in Gaza and the West Bank for Palestinian
security personnel. Gilad said the GOI needs to discuss the
issue further. Gilad himself is not inclined to have the
Egyptians training Palestinian security personnel, although
he said that it is already happening in Egypt. He noted that
Egypt had sent Badr Brigade trainers to Jordan, and assessed
that it had not yielded anything fruitful. He also dismissed
out of hand Jordanian offers to send Badr Brigade members to
the West Bank to train PASF, commenting they had enough
Palestinians to worry about already.

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DISCUSSION OF PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, IN-FIGHTING WITHIN PA
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7. (S/NF) Gilad said he warned Suleiman that if Hamas
participates in the January 2006 Palestinian elections "it
will destroy everything, as Hamas will take over and start a
new process." According to Gilad, Suleiman and his deputy
told him, "There will be no elections in January. We will
take care of it." Gilad requested that the USG closely hold
this information and strictly protect the sources. He
clarified that neither Suleiman nor his deputy explained how
Egypt would stop the elections or elaborated further on the
subject. Gilad admitted that he does not know how the
Egyptians could prevent the elections from taking place, but
said, "The only people the Palestinians can trust now are the
Egyptians."


8. (S) Gilad said he is hopeful that Egyptian President
Mubarak will tell Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas during
the latter's visit to Cairo September 27 that the Palestinian
Authority must make a choice: "It either takes the reins of
government or it does not." Gilad recalled that he stressed
this issue to Suleiman who, according to Gilad, wrote down
"for the first time" the points Gilad made to him. Gilad
believes that means his points will be shown to Mubarak in
advance of the Mubarak-Abbas meeting.


9. (S) Gilad said the problem facing the PA is that PA
President Abbas "actually believes he can convince Hamas
through dialogue after a long period of peace. He believes
there is no alternative to himself." Gilad recalled how he
had recently turned over a memo to Abbas along with a request
to reorganize the PA. According to Gilad, Abbas said he
would work with it, but took no action. Gilad said PA
Interior Minister Nasir Yusif is honest but has no power
base. In contrast, he described Suleiman Hillas -- the
Palestinian Security Forces Commander in Gaza -- as
competent. Gilad recalled that Hillas worked well with the
IDF during the Gaza evacuation, but noted that Hillas did not
report his communications with the IDF to Yusif. Gilad said
PA Civil Affairs Minister Muhammad Dahlan is out to get
Yusif, and that PA PM Ahmad Quraya' is "terrible, and needs
to go." Portraying the PA as a "sinking ship," Gilad said he
had cited the shameful responses to the murder of Musa Arafat
to Suleiman, who had responded by saying a commission must be
established to investigate the murder of Arafat. As a
further example of the state of disarray in the PA, Gilad
suggested that Palestinian policemen and soldiers helped to
loot the greenhouses that were preserved for the Palestinians.


10. (S) Responding to the Ambassador's question about what
can be done to help PA President Abbas, Gilad replied, "He
listens to the U.S. and Egypt. He needs to be told he has to
make a decision. Either there is one state, one authority,
one weapon in Gaza, or there is not. He needs to be forced
to make a choice, and then he needs to carry out his
obligations." Gilad said, "U.S. economic assistance to the
PA will not help to resolve the security situation in the
Gaza Strip."

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GILAD PITCHES STRATEGIC DIALOGUES
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11. (C) Gilad said that as a result of discussions with the
Egyptians on the Egypt-Gaza Border Guard Force Agreement,
relations with Egypt have markedly improved. He hopes
Israel's long-held goal of a serious strategic dialogue with
Egypt can finally be achieved, and noted that the Egyptians
will invite Israel DefMin Mofaz to Egypt. (NOTE: He did not
specify a date. END NOTE.) Gilad suggested that Egypt --
like Israel -- is worried about Iran and its nuclear weapons
program and designs in Iraq.


12. (C) Gilad expressed frustration that the U.S. and Israel
"do not have a formal framework for discussion, as a result
of the incident involving China." He indicated that the
delay in holding the Joint POL-MIL Group (JPMG) session,
Defense Policy Advisory Group (DPAG),and the Strategic
Dialogue is deeply felt in Israel's security establishment,
especially as "it is recognized that the U.S. treats
seriously only formal dialogues." The Ambassador responded
that there is a desire to re-start the Strategic Dialogue
with Israel, and that it could begin this fall or in early

2006. He said that Secretary Rice has assigned Under
Secretary Burns to lead it. Gilad acknowledged this was a

SIPDIS
positive development.

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GILAD EXPRESSES CONCERN ABOUT JORDAN, IRAQ
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13. (C) Gilad said he is concerned about the current
situation in Jordan, with King Abdullah reportedly rotating
his generals and governments on a regular basis, changing out
his ambassador to Israel unexpectedly, and facing increasing
opposition in the Jordanian parliament. Gilad said that
Israel's cooperation with Jordan on the counterterrorism
front is "incredible," and he hopes it will continue. He
stressed that Jordan's stability is vital to Israel's
security. Gilad said he is worried that Israel does not know
much about the situation in Saudi Arabia, or about internal
ethnic tensions in Iran.


14. (C) Gilad asked the Ambassador about Iraq, expressing his
view that security is the main issue there. The Ambassador
said he was cautiously optimistic about the future of Iraq,
observing that the Sunnis seem increasingly ready to
participate in the democratic process, and that the U.S. is
making significant progress in training Iraqi security forces.
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JONES