SHARON PUSHES BACK CONTENDERS, KEEPING PRIMARIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 005863

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON PUSHES BACK CONTENDERS, KEEPING PRIMARIES
AND ELECTIONS AT BAY

REF: TEL AVIV 5740

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Sharon's victory in the
September 27 Likud Central Committee vote over early party
primaries staunches for now the efforts of leadership
contender Bibi Netanyahu and his anti-disengagement cohorts,
allowing Sharon to move ahead with his political agenda --
and the possibility of both further movement on
settlements/outposts and an eventual return to the roadmap.
Sharon can now govern without serious challenge from within
Likud until the long-scheduled primaries to be held in April,
the Likud's mandatory six months before the November 2006
national elections. His Likud-Labor coalition will remain
viable at least until the final 2006 budget vote, which must
take place by March 31. At that time, Labor will face the
choice of either continuing to support the only political
leader capable of pursuing Labor's peace process agenda, or
leaving the coalition over the budget as a means of
establishing its own, non-Sharon-based platform in
preparation for the fall elections. FM Shalom emerged as one
of the big winners in the contest. We recommend that the
Department use this opportunity of Sharon's continued
post-disengagement governance and the prospect of further
moves toward the Palestinians to press Arab states for
meaningful gestures to Israel. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Prime Minister Sharon's 1,433-1,329 win in the
Central Committee, whose membership represents the more
right-wing party elements, staved off early party primaries
and dampened the leadership hopes of both leadership
contender Binyamin Netanyahu and ultra-right winger Uzi
Landau, both of whom have aggressively argued that Sharon has
moved too far to the left to represent Likud. Close
associates and supporters of Sharon characterize the Central
Committee decision as a show of confidence in both Sharon's
leadership and the political path he has chosen, as well as a
determination to keep the party united. Sharon's win keeps
him on course with breathing space to pursue his political
agenda, whether further movement on settlements/outposts,
less controversial "negotiated" agreements with the
Palestinians, an eventual return to the roadmap, or some
combination of those. Observers are covering the map with
speculative scenarios, from Sharon proceeding on course, to
splitting the party, to retiring. Long experience shows
that, with his Central Committee win and a solid, for now,
Likud-Labor coalition, Sharon is hardly likely to change the
all-ahead-full course that has carried him -- and his agenda
-- through four years and three governments.

--------------
WINNERS AND LOSERS -- AT LEAST FOR NOW
--------------


3. (C) Sharon associates have publicly called upon Sharon's
Likud opponents to respect the vote and not seek to further
challenge Sharon's leadership, directing these admonitions at
the band of some 13-18 Likud MKs -- "rebels" -- who have
consistently opposed disengagement and who sought to unseat
Sharon in early primaries. Netanyahu stated publicly that he
would respect the results, while at the same time accusing
Sharon of using patronage to achieve his victory, and he
pledged to continue his leadership challenge. Sharon could
still face challenges from the right wing, buttressed by
Likud's disaffected MKs, once the Knesset comes back into
session in November, in the form of no-confidence motions,
but given the divided opposition, they are no more likely to
succeed than the score or more of such motions over the past
year. This battle has generated both distinct winners and
distinct losers, setting the landscape for the coming months,
but, as the career of Ariel Sharon himself so clearly shows,
political resurrection and political collapse are alternating
companions of even the best Israeli politicians.

--------------
THE WINNERS
--------------


4. (C) Those in Likud who supported Sharon through his
campaign against what pundits have referred to as Netanyahu's
"putsch" attempt, will likely be rewarded by Sharon for their
loyalty. They, and beneficiaries outside Likud, include:

-- Likud MK Silvan Shalom, Foreign Minister. Shalom's strong
speech to the Central Committee and effective lobbying
against early primaries, combined with well-acknowledged
ward-boss-style tactics such as funding taxis to transport
committee members to the polling place, may have tipped the
scales against early primaries (see para 5). Shalom
Tourgeman of the PM's office told the Ambassador today that
FM Shalom made the difference in 100 votes, implying that his
stock with the PM has risen dramatically as a result.

-- Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi, Minister-Without-Portfolio. As
chairman of the Likud Central Committee, Hanegbi did his
best, albeit unsuccessfully, to undermine the petition that
brought the early primaries issue to a Central Committee vote
and, as one pundit put it, "committed suicide" by associating
himself with the possibility of Sharon forming a new party --
a threat that may have been instrumental in keeping the
Central Committee from supporting early primaries. Tourgeman
said that Hanegbi would be rewarded in part by being put in
charge of the Strategic Dialogue with the USG.

-- Likud MK Ehud Olmert, Finance and Trade Minister. A
Sharon stalwart and the original stalking horse for Sharon's
concept of disengagement, Olmert played a crucial role in
keeping Likud from embracing the right wing, levied the
public criticism of early-primaries supporters that allowed
statesman Sharon to at least partially avoid pre-vote verbal
slugfests, and floated the threatening possibility of Sharon
leaving Likud and forming a new party -- the "big bang"
theory. Tourgeman reported that Olmert will now be given the
finance portfolio in his own right, opening up the trade job
for another Sharon loyalist not currently in the Cabinet,
such as Likud MK Roni Bar'on or Deputy DefMin Ze'ev Boim.

-- Likud MK Avraham Hirchson, Tourism Minister. His strong
public statements against early primaries helped sway
undecideds.

-- Labor Party Ministers, particularly Vice Premier Shimon
Peres. The Labor ministers and hangers-on, comfortable with
their positions and perks, avoided the ideological pitfall,
into which they could easily have fallen, of leaving the
government over the budget and out of desire to establish a
non-Sharon platform in advance of elections, ensuring for
Sharon the ability to govern and disengage.

-- Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who can
expect continuity with Sharon and the possibility of further
unilateral gestures, progress along the roadmap, or both, but
only if Abbas manages to maintain an environment free of
terror activity.

--------------
The Losers
--------------


5. (C) Sharon associates have stated publicly that "no heads
would roll," meaning Sharon will not fire those Likud
ministers, such as Danny Naveh and Limor Livnat, who
supported Netanyahu's call for early primaries. Nonetheless,
the Sharon victory diminishes his opponents, both vis-a-vis
Sharon, and in the competition to eventually succeed the
77-year-old party chairman. The Prime Minister is unlikely
to forget or truly forgive those like Netanyahu, Sa'ar and
Landau, whose attacks have been vicious, or those, like
Livnat, who, while less vicious, deserted Sharon at the last
minute. In the meantime, the budgets of their ministries
will likely receive closer scrutiny. Among the biggest
losers:

-- Likud MK Binyamin Netanyahu made himself a thorn in
Sharon's side by his tactics within the Cabinet over
disengagement, cut short his successful tenure as Finance
Minister, resigning from the government on the eve of
disengagement, and waged a vicious, unsuccessful bid to
unseat Sharon months ahead of the regularly scheduled Likud
primaries. His erratic stands throughout the months of
debate over disengagement and his even more convoluted
explanations of those stands and of his reasons for
challenging Sharon, solidify in much of the public's minds
his reputation as a self-serving and unreliable leader. Less
than 24 hours after his Central Committee defeat, Netanyahu
is facing public criticism from unnamed Likud Knesset members
-- and, until yesterday, Netanyahu supporters -- who charge
that "we cannot win with Bibi," and "if Bibi remains, Sharon
will rule the Likud forever." Bibi is not finished yet.
That reckoning will come only after the next Likud primaries,
where some analysts argue that he may garner more support
from the hard-core rank and file members who will not be
voting, as the Central Committee members did, to preserve
their individual "perks."

-- Likud MK Uzi Landau, a right-wing ideologue and Likud
leadership aspirant, led the anti-disengagement, anti-Sharon
faction of Likud from day one, wagering that Sharon no longer
represents Likud, and lost.

-- Likud MK Gideon Sa'ar, coalition whip and former Cabinet
secretary for Sharon, abandoned the Prime Minister, who many

SIPDIS
would say made from scratch Sa'ar's political career, and
tied himself to Netanyahu's coattails. His shift smacks to
some of betrayal, not only of his erstwhile mentor, but of
his responsibilities as faction whip, and may have foiled his
steady rise as an up-and-coming young Likud leader.

-- Likud MK and Education Minister Limor Livnat, was
on-again, off-again over the past year of disengagement
debates, feverishly sniffing the wind before every vote.
With only 36 hours to go before the Central Committee vote,
and no critical need to do anything but remain silent, she
mis-judged the wind, coming out strongly in favor of
Netanyahu's initiative, and prompting Sharon ally Olmert to
comment: "the rats swam to the sinking ship."

-- Likud MK Danny Naveh, Health Minister. With his health
budget already evoking the ridicule of Ehud Olmert, who
called him Israel's "worst health minister," Naveh's support
for Netanyahu is likely to send his political stock down even
further.

-- Likud anti-disengagement foes, the so-called "rebels,"
tried for more than a year to use the right-leaning Central
Committee as the lever by which to shift the -- overall --
more centrist Likud membership to the right, and away from
disengagement. They now face a prime minister who can
continue to call on the center and left to govern, despite
their inevitable continuing machinations.

-- Settler leader and Likud Central Committee member Moshe
Feiglin. Fringe rightist Feiglin and his supporters, failed
in their attempt to dramatically shift Likud to the far right.

--------------
THE REALLY BIG WINNER
--------------


6. (C) Foreign Minister Shalom's heavy lifting in the Likud
Central Committee proved crucial to PM Sharon's success in
yesterday's Likud Central Committee vote. Over the past
year, Shalom has evolved from an absolute foe of the PM's
disengagement plan to become one of Sharon's most effective
spokesmen and powerbrokers in the Likud party. He
demonstrated once again on Sunday the political skills in the
rough-and-tumble world of the Likud party that have made him
a Central Committee and ward-politics force, delivering an
impassioned speech in defense of the Prime Minister's
position on a day when Sharon himself was silenced by a
malfunctioning -- some say sabotaged -- sound system. Shalom
sees himself as Sharon's successor, in competition with
Netanyahu, who is about the same age. By supporting Sharon,
he puts off for a bit longer the possibility that Netanyahu
will succeed to the premiership and -- equally worrisome --
hold onto it, Shalom will remain an important Sharon ally as
Israel heads towards primaries and parliamentary elections in
2006, all of which Shalom will use to enhance his
competitiveness, vis-a-vis Netanyahu, to eventually lead the
party.


7. (C) COMMENT AND RECOMMENDATION: In his Foreign Ministry
hat, Shalom has evolved from awkward sloganeer to a more
adroit champion of Israel's place in the Middle East, and the
need for Arab and Muslim states to establish contacts -- and,
ultimately, diplomatic relations -- with Israel. We
recommend that the Department consider steps to bolster
Shalom's diplomatic outreach efforts, which have led to some
successes in the broader Muslim world (e.g., Pakistan,
Indonesia),but only tepid reaction from Arab states that had
developed ties with Israel before the second Intifada (e.g.,
Tunisia, Morocco, Qatar, UAE, Oman, and Bahrain). These
mainly Maghreb and Gulf states have reacted cautiously and
generally quietly to PM Sharon's disengagement policy and FM
Shalom's overtures -- with letters and private phone calls
rather than public statements or visits. These Arab states
should be encouraged to attend the tenth anniversary of the
Rabin assassination in November or to consider other
opportunities to re-engage publicly in a dialogue with
Israel. At the very least, they should take less negative
stances towards Israel in the debates in the UN and other
international bodies such as the International Red Cross and
Red Crescent Movement.

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