NEA DAS DIBBLE'S 9/20 MEETING WITH ISRAELI MOD'S

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 TEL AVIV 005794

SIPDIS

DEFENSE FOR OSD (JAMES ANDERSON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2015
TAGS: PREL PINR MARR MASS PARM KPAL PGOV IS EG GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI EXTERNAL GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: NEA DAS DIBBLE'S 9/20 MEETING WITH ISRAELI MOD'S
AMOS GILAD FOCUSES ON GAZA, POST-DISENGAGEMENT

REF: USDAO TEL AVIV 210353Z SEP 05

Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) Israeli MOD Political-Military Affairs Bureau Chief
Amos Gilad told NEA DAS Elizabeth Dibble September 19 that
the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) is a pillar of
the recently-concluded Egypt-Israel agreement on the
Egypt-Gaza border and performs a vital role monitoring
changes along the Egypt-Gaza border. Gilad urged that the
USG do nothing to diminish the MFO's capabilities or undercut
its role in the region. On Egypt, Gilad said Israel wants to
develop a strategic dialogue that would serve as the basis
for further developing relations, including cultural and
military ties. He cited both the future of Gaza and Egyptian
military and terrorist activities in the Sinai as reasons why
such a dialogue is necessary. Gilad said Egypt's disbelief
about how quickly the IDF would evacuate Philadelphi ensured
that the Egyptians were not prepared when the IDF withdrew.
He described the situation along the Egypt-Gaza border as
"anarchy" and alleged that people and weapons -- including
RPGs and Strela missiles -- have crossed the border into
Gaza. (NOTE: IDF and security officials briefing the
Knesset September 21 claimed that no such weaponry was
smuggled into the Gaza Strip after Israel's withdrawal. END
NOTE.) Gilad said that as long as the situation in the
Philadelphi corridor is unresolved, it will affect the entire
Egypt-Israel relationship, and impede resolution of the Rafah
passage issue. Gilad described PA Civil Affairs Minister
Dahlan as physically sick and emotionally run down, citing as
evidence Dahlan's recent hospitalization in Israel -- and
subsequent flight to the Czech Republic.


2. (C) Summary Continued: Gilad expressed hope that the
U.S.-Israel Strategic Dialogue would be renewed soon because
upcoming Palestinian general and municipal elections need to
be discussed "in-depth" before they take place -- especially
as their results could jeopardize U.S. democratization goals
in the region. Gilad warned that the January 2006
Palestinian elections will be fateful as they could result in
Hamas gaining political power and prestige in Gaza and the
West Bank. Gilad portrayed PA President Mahmoud Abbas as the
Palestinian people's only hope, but said he is besieged by
his own ministers and powerless against Hamas. He suggested
that the murder of Moussa Arafat made a big impression on the
PA President, and has made him wary of PA Minister Nasir
Yusif, who the President thinks might take action against
him. Gilad said he believes Iran is determined to develop
its own nuclear bomb and is undeterred by the U.S., seeing it
as powerless over Iran. Gilad assessed Syrian President
Al-Asad as "in trouble," and said he believes the Syrians
have been lobbying France to keep the French out of alleged
"conspiracies" against the Syrian President. DAS Dibble
praised Israel for showing restraint along its northern
border in response to Syrian-backed provocations, and urged
that Israel continue that policy. Gilad characterized
Egypt's recent elections as a "choice between stability and
democracy," and suggested that the voters were forced to turn
out. END SUMMARY.

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Gilad: MFO Important -- Pillar of Egypt-Israel Agreement
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3. (C) Gilad stressed that the MFO is a pillar of the
Egypt-Israel agreement on the Egypt-Gaza border, and urged
that the U.S. do nothing to diminish its capabilities or
undercut its role in the region. Its role in the agreement,
Gilad explained, was a prize for which the Israelis fought
hard with the Egyptians. Gilad said Egyptian DefMin Tantawi
had told him Egypt was committed to ensuring the MFO had no
place in the agreement, and so was frustrated when it was
included. Gilad explained that the MFO is not there to
monitor terror, but to monitor changes along the border in
accordance with very detailed procedures spelled out in the
agreement. He said he told the Egyptians that the MFO's role
is "vital." Gilad praised the Egypt-Israel agreement for its
comprehensiveness and detail. He noted that DefMin Mofaz had
highlighted its significance numerous times before the
Cabinet and the Knesset, and that Mofaz will convey that same
view during his upcoming visit to Washington.


4. (S) Gilad said both Israel and Egypt have technically
violated the Border Guards agreement since its signature, but
know about each others' violations, and have reached
understandings about them. As violations, he cited Egypt's
failure to prevent Palestinians from crossing the Gaza-Egypt
border, Israel's deployment of tanks along the Philadelphi
corridor. Gilad said that Israel could not discuss some of
Egypt's violations with Egypt as this would reveal Israeli
sources and methods. Now, he said, Egypt needs to close
Philadelphi. He noted that Likud "rebel" MK Yuval Steinitz
had recently asked him to report on the situation in Gaza.
Gilad noted that he has kept Steinitz informed of the
Israel-Egypt agreement from the beginning: "I like
Steinitz's criticism. It helped Israel in its bargaining
position with the Egyptians."

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Wanted: Strategic Dialogue with the Egyptians
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5. (S) Gilad claimed that the Egyptians are preparing
operational plans, infrastructure and their Second and Third
Army Corps in the Sinai to "take over the Sinai whenever they
decide to do so." He did not express alarm and said, "We do
not believe the Egyptians are planning to attack us," but he
wanted to make it clear that Egypt's military capabilities
are of concern. Gilad stressed that Israel does not view the
Egyptian army as a "lousy" one, observing that "even a lousy
army can be a dangerous one. They have F-16s and American
weapons. They are training all the time. In their war
games, Israel is always identified as the enemy." Gilad said
he had discussed this with Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar
Suleiman to no avail.


6. (S) Gilad said there is now more significant common ground
between Israel and Egypt, and that Egypt needs to develop
further all its relations with Israel -- including cultural
relations and ties between their militaries. He cited as
areas of common interest, preventing a "Hamas-stan" and
building a "real Palestinian Authority." He said the
challenges Israel faces in Gaza require cooperation with the
Egyptians -- whom, he alleged, "control" Hamas by bypassing
the Palestinian Authority, and have released Hamas terrorists
into the Sinai. Gilad said Egypt's reaction to terrorism is
unacceptable, and that Israel will complain to the Egyptians
again. He expressed gratitude for the USG's help to date in
delivering the same message to the Egyptians.


7. (S) Based on the "good meetings" Gilad and others have had
with the Egyptians, Gilad said that Israel wants to establish
a bilateral, strategic dialogue with Egypt. It would the
first of its kind and would serve as a basis for a
"partnership of future, strategic cooperation." Gilad said
the Egyptians also want to establish a dialogue, but do not
want to send high-level officials on visits to Israel. Gilad
recalled that he had invited Egyptian DefMin Tantawi and the
Egyptian Air Force commander "a thousand times," but they
always demurred. Gilad noted that he had recently met with
DefMin Tantawi for one hour, and feels that they have a
chemistry that works. Gilad said he will travel to Cairo the
week of September 26: "The strategic relationship is
important, but we cannot have nothing to show for it."

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Describes Philadelphi as a Catastrophe
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8. (S) Gilad said that what is happening along the
Philadelphi corridor is a catastrophe that is strengthening
Israeli opposition to the Israel-Egypt agreement -- embodied
by Likud "rebel" Yuval Steinitz in the Knesset -- and
creating a negative atmosphere. Defending the agreement as
"very good, with no gray areas," Gilad said the only
explanation for the "anarchy" along Philadelphi is that the
Egyptians did not believe the IDF would evacuate the corridor
so quickly, in spite of the fact that they had been informed
numerous times of the date when the IDF would leave. He also
attributed the situation to the Egyptians' unwillingness to
shoot Palestinians to restore order. Gilad said he has been
talking to Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman or his
deputy at least twice daily, and that he keeps receiving
assurances -- which he does not believe -- that the Egyptians
are stopping people from crossing the Gaza-Egypt border.
Gilad said the Egyptians also pressed the Palestinian
Authority and Hamas not to destroy the security fence, but
apparently to no avail. Gilad said that the Egyptians have
urged PA President Mahmoud Abbas to deploy more security
forces along Philadelphi, and have also pressed Hamas to
deploy. The Egyptians are concerned with the human traffic
across the Egypt-Gaza border as it violates Egypt's
sovereignty. Hamas, Gilad said, respects the Egyptians, and
so it accedes to their pressure and does not challenge it.
Gilad said that Dahlan told him that 90,000 Palestinians have
crossed the border since it opened. Gilad said that
Palestinians have been arriving in Port Said and Alexandria,
making the Egyptians look weak at home and in the Sinai. He
asserted that only the civil police -- not the Egyptian army
and Border Guards -- are dealing with the problem. Gilad
noted that the Egyptians want to set up training camps for
the Palestinian security forces. He said he hopes the
Jordanians will "wake up" and do their part to train
Palestinian security forces, and assessed the Jordanians as
very professional in this field.


9. (S) Gilad said the smuggling activity across the
Egypt-Gaza border was terrible, and that "thousands of
rifles, rockets, rocket propelled grenades, and maybe even
Strela missiles" had been smuggled into the Gaza Strip.
(NOTE: IDF and security officials briefing the Knesset
September 21 claimed that no such weaponry was smuggled into
the Gaza Strip after Israel's withdrawal. END NOTE.) "Our
own information is excellent," he insisted. The smuggling
has declined since the first days after Israeli withdrawal, a
trend he attributed to a decrease in the numbers of
Palestinians crossing the Gaza-Egypt border.


10. (S) Gilad said the unresolved situation along the
Philadelphi corridor will affect the "whole relationship"
between Egypt and Israel, and that Israel is being very
patient, but is frustrated. Responding to DAS Dibble's
question about the situation in Gaza, Gilad said that the
Palestinians are trying harder to control Philadelphi because
of Egyptian pressure. "The anarchy continues, however."
Gilad said that the average Palestinian citizen does not know
who is in charge at Philadelphi, while Hamas is trying to
show that it is running the border. In response to the
situation, Gilad said Israel has tightened security along the
passages between Gaza and Israel -- a measure that is hurting
the Palestinians economically. He expressed hope that a
solution would be found to Philadelphi because the border
agreement must be respected. As a result of the "anarchy"
that prevails at Philadelphi, Gilad said, Israeli DefMin
Mofaz is asking how he, as DefMin, can contemplate an
agreement on the Rafah border crossing when the Palestinians
and Egyptians have allowed such a situation to develop.

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Dahlan's Emotional and Mental Health Deteriorating
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11. (S) Gilad described PA Civil Affairs Minister Muhammad
Dahlan as a man whose emotional and mental health were
deteriorating to the point that he "collapsed" in Gilad's
hands when the latter met him the evening of September 16.
Gilad described the meeting as follows: "Dahlan was there
with his daughter-in-law. I told him, 'You are sick.' He
started shouting and screaming at me. He shouted for hours.
We called a doctor and suggested he go to a hospital. He
refused and said he had to speak to thousands of Palestinians
on September 17. He then collapsed on his bed. He looked
ghostly white and appeared to be suffering terribly. I said,
'If you leave this room, you will either be martyred, or you
will end up paralyzed.' He broke down in my arms and said he
would go the hospital. We arranged a VIP room for him at a
hospital in Tel Aviv and took him there in an ambulance with
a security and police escort. The following day (September
17) the doctors said he had suffered a slipped disc.
Jordanian King Abdullah sent a helicopter which arrived in a
half-hour and took Dahlan to Amman. Afterwards, I met him on
the Jordanian side of the Dead Sea. He was vicious, which
means he had recovered. He then went to Karlovy Vary in the
Czech Republic for two weeks to recover. We did everything
for him while he was in Israel. We brought him his religious
wife. (He's scared of her.) We told him that all he needed
would be paid for by the GOI." Noting that Dahlan's
hospitalization had made the Israeli press, Gilad stressed
that the Israeli side did not leak the matter, as -- in
Gilad's view -- the Palestinians would have used the
information to humiliate and hurt Dahlan. Gilad said he
would never break his word to Dahlan, despite the latter
being "extremist and unhelpful on the Rafah issue." Calling
Dahlan "destructive," Gilad said the PA minister was behind
the "elimination" of PA Interior Minister Nasir Yusif, and
that Yusif's enemies would "get rid of Yusif -- sooner or
later." Gilad said that Dahlan told him that the
Palestinians will never accept Israel's proposals on the
Rafah passage and other issues. That position, he said,
serves Dahlan as it allows him to be seen as the "tough guy."

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Gilad Hopes Strategic Dialogue with U.S. Will be Renewed
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12. (C) Gilad said there are many items to be discussed in
the U.S.-Israel Strategic Dialogue, and that he hopes it will
be renewed soon. He said Israel and the U.S. need to
exchange views in an in-depth way before Palestinian
legislative and municipal elections. He expressed concern
that the elections could be disastrous, "even to America's
policy of democratization," and might result in the Egyptians
and other Arabs criticizing the U.S. freedom agenda in the
region.

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Gilad: "January 25 Will be a Fateful Day"
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13. (S) Gilad said that all indicators suggest that January
25, 2006 -- the date of Palestinian elections -- will be a
"fateful day" for the Palestinians and the region, as the
results will resonate beyond the Palestinian Authority. He
said he is sure that elections will be free, but that they
will not result in democracy because PA President Mahmoud
Abbas has already publicly declared that he will never
dismantle the terrorist infrastructure. Gilad said that two
competing groups want to replace the Palestinian Authority.
He said the first group, Hamas, is willing to take its time:
"First they will win 40 percent of the votes in the
elections. This will give them a good showing, but will not
saddle them with responsibility. They will offer anything to
win votes, and then they will take over the municipalities.
They have a plan to take over Nablus and all the jobs it will
offer. This will give them incredible power. They will then
prepare the Palestinian street so that their frustration will
erupt." Gilad admitted that he was not sure whether the GOI
has given enough thought to the Palestinian elections and
their significance. "We are doomed if Hamas becomes a real
power and part of political life," especially as, in his
words, the Palestinian Authority continues to be a "helpless
and poor performer."


14. (S) Gilad said that only PA President Abbas enjoys
prestige, as he embodies hope in Gaza. At the same time,
Abbas is "alone," opposed by Palestinian PM Ahmad Quraya',
and frightened by the recent murder of Moussa Arafat: "Abu
Mazen was not happy with the way Moussa Arafat was killed.
Over 100 people and 20 vehicles took part. Arafat's house is
not far from Abu Mazen's. Arafat was slaughtered, and then
his body was thrown into the garbage. It shook up Abu Mazen.
He told Nasir Yusif, 'I trust you will not do anything."
Gilad called Abbas "clever," and suggested he is claiming
credit for the calm situation in Gaza, while really ceding
control to Hamas. "He thinks we do not know what he is
doing, but we know. Hamas is behind the current calm in
Gaza, not Abu Mazen. Hamas has decided this course of action
with the Egyptians."

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Gilad on Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt
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15. (C) Gilad said that he believes Iran is determined to
develop a nuclear bomb. He said Iran cannot be pressured
through sanctions on oil, and that Iran does not feel that
the U.S. has any leverage over it. Gilad said the Iranians
are lobbying the Germans to get them to ease their pressure
on Iran.


16. (C) On Syria, Gilad said that Syrian President Bashar
Al-Asad appears to be in trouble. Gilad said he despises
Asad, but admitted that Syria might be worse without him:
"You could have the Sunnis in Damascus, combined with Sunni
forces in Iraq." Gilad said he believes the Syrians in Paris
have been lobbying the French not to take part in
"conspiracies" against Asad. Gilad considered the effort
futile, as the Syrians "have no cards to play." Gilad said
Suleiman told him Bashar is "stupid and tone deaf -- he
cannot read the signals, and sticks to terror as a shield."
DAS Dibble said the USG would not be surprised if Asad urges
Hizballah to provoke the Israelis along Israel's northern
border, but counseled against any Israeli response should a
provocation occur.


17. (C) Gilad noted that Israel had recently returned the
bodies of two Hizballah terrorists to Lebanon once the GOL
had asked for them. The GOL, Gilad said, requested their
return, and then boasted to Hizballah of their success when
the bodies were turned over. Gilad expressed concern that
Hizballah is trying to kidnap IDF soldiers.


18. (C) Gilad termed the elections in Afghanistan a "great
success," and characterized Lebanon's elections as a
"pleasant surprise." He said the results of Egypt's
elections -- including 25 percent voter turnout -- reflected
the voters' view that the choice was between stability and
democracy. "The voters," he said, "were forced to turn out."


19. (U) This cable was not cleared by DAS Dibble.

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