GAZA: SECURITY DETERIORATES, PA HESITATES BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 005716

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL ECON EAID KDEM KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: GAZA: SECURITY DETERIORATES, PA HESITATES BUT
HAMAS CONSOLIDATES

Classified By: DCM Gene A. Gretz, for Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: A Norwegian diplomat who has covered the
Gaza Strip for the past two years sees the security situation
deteriorating even further in the coming months. He believes
that a variety of armed groups, including factions within
Fatah, will continue to seek illicit financial and political
gains in the wake of the Israeli withdrawal. Although the
GON continues to regard Hamas as a terrorist organization and
remains concerned about the group's long-term objectives, it
is coming to view Hamas as a potentially stabilizing
influence in Gaza, at least in the short term. Hamas members
holding positions in Gaza municipalities tend to be well
educated, effective, non-ideological, and uncorrupted,
according to the Norwegian diplomat, who also remains highly
skeptical that any amount of foreign assistance will
significantly alter Gazans' negative opinions of the PA and
its corrupt representatives. He said he expects Hamas to
secure between 30 and 40 percent of the seats in the
Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in the January 2005
elections. End Summary.


2. (C) On September 12, Norwegian Diplomat Dr. Jonas Jolle
met with Econoff to discuss the current situation in the Gaza
Strip and prospects for any improvement in the economic
situation there. As a First Secretary at Norway's
Representative Office to the Palestinian Authority, Jolle has
been responsible for covering the Gaza Strip for the past two
years. He regularly travels to Gaza and has spent most of
the last five weeks there reporting on the GOI disengagement.

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Security: Downward Spiral
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3. (C) Jolle, having left Gaza the day before after an
extended stay, remarked that the security situation is
deteriorating significantly and that he expects it to get
worse in the coming months. He assigned much of the blame
to factions within Fatah, but also mentioned other groups,
including some founded by militant Islamists. According to
Jolle, the perpetrators of killings, kidnappings, and other
crimes are more interested in securing a share in the spoils
of the Israeli departure than in any immediate political
gains. As political power is dependent on patronage
systems, however, those who have gained the most financially
will be better positioned to wield influence.


4. (C) Jolle characterized much of the violence and criminal
activity as unorganized and sometimes random. He said, for
example, that those responsible for the recent kidnapping of
an Italian journalist had initially intended only to set up a
roadblock to protest the lack of jobs. When this tactic
failed to generate any response from the PA, they briefly
detained the foreign journalist to demonstrate their
seriousness. In some instances, according to Jolle, an armed
group may be comprised of friends and acquaintances who, over
coffee and a shared water pipe, decide to work together to
settle an old score or achieve some mutual financial gain,
after which they quickly disband. Jolle said he believes
that the armed groups operating in Gaza know full well that
the PA is incapable of holding them accountable for their
acts, particularly when those responsible come from powerful
families.


5. (C) Jolle acknowledged, however, that the assassination
of former Gaza security chief Mousa Arafat was well organized
and most likely involved larger and long-established groups.
He said that, according to rumors circulating in Gaza,
shortly after the attack on his home began, Arafat made
several phone calls to senior PA officials who either
declined to speak with him or were otherwise unresponsive to
his pleas for help. Jolle asserted that senior PA officials
probably were not directly involved in the killing, but some
may have been aware that another attempt on Arafat's life was
being planned. Jolle said he had met with Arafat two days
before his death. He described Arafat as someone who had
apparently come to terms with his demotion and did not
indicate any intention of challenging the PA or any of its
leaders. Jolle added that, due to his ruthlessness, Arafat
had many enemies.

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Hamas to the Rescue?
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6. (C) Jolle said that, despite its rhetoric and the
celebratory displays of its gun-toting members, Hamas has had
a stabilizing influence on the security situation in Gaza.
Hamas denied involvement in Arafat's assassination and has
generally refrained from other acts of violence, according to
Jolle. While this approach may be only temporary, Jolle
asserted that Hamas's ability to discipline members who
deviate from the leadership's instructions has helped
mitigate the extent of the lawlessness.

7. (C) Jolle said he has been impressed by the caliber of
Hamas members serving in municipal positions in Gaza. He
said that Hamas members generally tend to be effective
bureaucrats. For example, Hamas members serving the
municipalities of Beit Hanun and Deir al-Balah are well
educated, non-ideological, uncorrupted and responsive to the
needs of their constituencies. In one instance, according to
Jolle, newly elected Hamas members immediately impounded and
then sold municipality vehicles previously given out on the
basis of personal connections to those in power rather than
professional need. Hamas members elected to professional
associations in Gaza have proven to be competent and
committed to democratic practices in governing these
organizations. Nevertheless, Jolle said he and his
government are still wary of Hamas's intentions and remain
uncomfortable attributing anything positive to what they
still consider to be a terrorist organization.

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Absence of Alternatives
--------------


8. (C) The challenge, according to Jolle, is how to deal
with Hamas given its political ascendancy and spreading
popularity among Palestinians, who increasingly regard it as
the only real alternative to a corrupt and ineffective PA
leadership. He asserted that the occupation was responsible
for "an ossified political system" in the West Bank and Gaza.
In the past decade, Palestinians have grown increasingly
tired of the same wasteful and corrupt officials. Abbas has
not sufficiently altered the status quo to change those
views. Jolle identified only two Palestinian leaders as
representing a "new generation:" Minister of Interior Dahlan
and Marwan Barghouti. He added, however, that Dahlan may not
be any less corrupt than the others.


9. (C) Jolle said that Dahlan and others who may wish to
challenge the current leadership are biding their time, in
part to avoid a civil war within Fatah. For example,
contrary to what most observers would expect of a political
party, Fatah will not be holding a party conference until
after the January 2006 PLC elections. In the meantime, Hamas
continues to gain supporters, even among non-religious,
western-educated Palestinians. He said he expects Hamas to
secure between 30 and 40 percent of the seats in the PLC, and
holds out little hope that a viable secular party will emerge
to challenge Hamas anytime soon. Despite his favorable
impressions of several Hamas members -- including some who
had stepped down after losing professional association
elections -- Jolle said Hamas might harbor a "one vote, one
time" hidden agenda. It may hope to take control of the PA
by democratic means but may never cede power thereafter.

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Wishful Thinking?
--------------


10. (C) Jolle was skeptical that any near-term improvement
in the Gazan economy will foster greater support for the PA
in the January 2006 elections. He said that the USG, the EU
and his own government are hoping that international
assistance flowing into the area will help stabilize the
situation and create a groundswell of support for Abbas and
the PA. Jolle said he is convinced that no matter how much
money is provided, "you can't buy votes" for the PA. PA
officials are discredited, if not despised, and no amount of
money, foreign aid, or infrastructure projects will change
that, certainly not by January 2006, he added. He also
questioned the PA's ability to absorb and responsibly manage
a significant increase in foreign assistance.


11. (C) Jolle characterized the economic situation in Gaza
as grim. Citing Gaza's high birthrate, massive unemployment,
weak government institutions, corruption and lack of security
that will continue to scare off potential investors, Jolle
said he is pessimistic about any significant improvement.
Conditions in Gaza would constitute an almost insurmountable
challenge for any developing country. Beyond that, Gaza has
the additional and unique handicap of not being able to
control its own borders and operate an airport or seaport.
Jolle said he doubts that Gaza can achieve the economic
growth necessary to transform the area into a model for
anything.

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