SHINUI LIKELY TO SUPPORT EGYPTIAN BORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 005133

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG EG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI EXTERNAL GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHINUI LIKELY TO SUPPORT EGYPTIAN BORDER
DEPLOYMENT AGREEMENT, GIVING SHARON A KNESSET MAJORITY

REF: TEL AVIV 4694

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) A recently-finalized agreement between Israel and
Egypt allowing some 750 Egyptian border guards to secure the
Egyptian-Gaza border after disengagement is likely to receive
Knesset approval with the support of Shinui. Shinui MKs Ilan
Leibovitch, Eti Livni, and Ilan Shalgi, told Poloff August 18
that, despite reservations expressed by Shinui Chair Tommy
Lapid, they are confident that Shinui will support an
Israeli-Egyptian agreement and that the Knesset will endorse
it. With the support of Shinui's 14 MKs and a worst case
scenario of only 13 of 40 Likud MKs supporting it, the
Israel-Egypt agreement would likely pass a Knesset vote with
as many as 64 votes. The agreement's passage requires only a
simple majority. David Sharan, an aide to Likud MK Yuval
Steinitz -- who strongly opposes the agreement -- told Poloff
August 18 that he expects that despite some Knesset
opposition to the agreement, in the end, it will pass. Prime
Minister Sharon agreed with Steinitz to seek Knesset
endorsement of the Border Guards agreement even though
Attorney General Mazuz determined that it is not necessary.


2. (C) Leibovitch added, however, that Shinui's support is
contingent on Sharon including the condition that Egypt not
supply the Palestinian Authority with weapons unless approved
by the Cabinet and the Knesset, and that any change in the
number of Egyptian border troops deployed on the Egypt-Gaza
border also be approved by the Knesset. Leibovitch said the
former condition is to ensure that the Israeli-Egyptian Peace
Treaty and military protocol are not violated. Leibovitch
said that the conditions are not secret and were specified by
Lapid to Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz during the Knesset
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, of which Leibovitch is
a member, some two or three weeks ago. Shalgi and Livni, who
are not members of that committee, said they are not aware of
any conditions to Shinui's support. Leibovitch said that he
personally strongly favors the agreement as he views Israel's
departure from the Philadelphi Corridor as critical to
disengagement.


3. (C) The recently finalized agreement will first require
approval by the Cabinet, where it is ensured a majority
buoyed by the eight Labor Party ministers' support. The
Cabinet vote is likely to come within days. After Cabinet
approval, the Government will request a special Knesset
session since the Knesset is in recess through the end of
October. Sharon decided to seek Knesset approval of the
agreement despite Attorney General Menachem Mazuz's decision
some weeks ago that the agreement would not require Knesset
endorsement. Sharon had been facing strong Knesset criticism
for pressing to leave the Knesset out of any decision on the
agreement. He also faced a petition to the High Court,
spearheaded by Likud MK Yuval Steinitz, challenging his
decision to avoid Knesset approval. MK Shalgi noted that
Shinui had advocated a Knesset vote on the agreement, during
recent Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee meetings,
asserting that the agreement substantially changes the
Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty of 1979, which the Knesset had
approved.

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