A/S WELCH DISCUSSES DISENGAGEMENT AND GAZA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 005104

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2015
TAGS: PREL MOPS ASEC KWBG KPAL PINS ETRD IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH DISCUSSES DISENGAGEMENT AND GAZA
CROSSINGS WITH MOD MOFAZ

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer. for Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary: A/S Welch, Ambassador Kurtzer and General
Ward met with Minister of Defense Mofaz and his key staff on
August 16 to review the status of settler evacuation from
Gaza, and to discuss the status of an Israel-Egyptian
protocol on troop deployments along Egypt's border with Gaza.
A/S Welch urged Mofaz to seek Egyptian views on Gaza
crossings, with a view to finding a way to resolve
differences over the issue of Rafah. Mofaz praised
Palestinian security forces' efforts in Gaza, anticipated
Egyptian agreement on a side letter that would address
opposition and Likud political concerns about possible arms
transfers to Palestinians, and expressed hope that an
agreement on rubble would be concluded with PA Minister
Dahlan. Mofaz also sounded an alarm about possible
PIJ-initiated suicide bombings emanating from the Tulkarm
area of the West Bank. Mofaz reaffirmed for General Ward
Israel's concurrence with the provision of specific
non-lethal equipment to the Palestinians. End Summary.

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Palestinian Security Forces
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2. (C) A/S Welch summarized the message the U.S. delegation
had delivered to Palestinian security officials earlier on
August 16 on the Gazan side of Karni (septel). "While most
of the world is watching what the Government of Israel is
doing, we told them we are looking at what they (the
Palestinians) are doing to prepare for the day after
(disengagement)." A/S Welch added that he had urged the
Palestinians to show unity and sent the signal that "security
is everything." A/S Welch described the meeting as a
positive indication that the PA security forces under Nasir
Yusif are working together and cooperating with Israeli
authorities. General Ward said he had reinforced the message
on the importance of PA efforts to keep things calm, and he
had counseled the PA security services to work together on
the ground. General Ward noted some indications that these
messages are getting through.

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Mofaz on Settler Evacuations
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3. (C) Minister Mofaz indicated that the first phase of the
disengagement plan is the most important because it is when
settlers leave on their own. He estimated that 50 percent of
the settlers would leave of their own accord. Force might
have to be used to relocate others, including some 2,000
"resisters" who had entered and remained in Gaza contrary to
GOI orders. The GOI arrested 150 such persons on August 16,
and Mofaz predicted additional arrests to come as the IDF
begins its next phase of operations. Ambassador Kurtzer
asked Mofaz for his assessment of the level of violence.
Mofaz cited several instances of conflicts between the IDF
and settlers, but indicated that Israeli security services
could cope. He is advocating a shorter timetable than
originally planned for the completion of the evacuation.

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Mofaz on Coordination: Some Praise for Palestinian Efforts
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Mofaz provided an account of the August 14
coordination meeting between ministers and committees charged
with coordinating disengagement. He assessed that
"coordination by both sides on the ground is very good." He
recalled the early August 14 mortar incident near Neve
Dekalim and Gadid, and noted that the following night there
were only two firing incidents at Israeli positions in Gaza.
In this regard, Mofaz acknowledged the efforts of PA
battalions deployed and assessed that their interest is to
keep the situation quiet. "They do not fully control what is
happening in Gaza, but from the level of coordination, they
are making efforts with good intentions." (Note: At the end
of the meeting, Mofaz's aides informed him of a mortar firing
on August 16.)


5. (C) Mofaz indicated that the August 14 meeting also
resolved a misunderstanding regarding the status of West Bank
settlements post-disengagement. While President Abbas always
has, Nasir Yusif now understands that the legal status of the
West Bank area will not be changed, according to Mofaz. On
Gaza, Mofaz said he revealed to Yusif that Israel forces
would turn over to PA control in a single 24-to-36 hour
period all of Gaza -- South/Central/North sectors -- rather
than in the three or four phases, as originally anticipated
by the Palestinians. Mofaz explained that an extended
transition is not tenable, as it might result in images of
IDF forces evacuating settlements juxtaposed with those of
Palestinians raising flags over other evacuated areas. Mofaz
anticipates another meeting with Palestinian counterparts
during the week of August 21. Mofaz reaffirmed for General
Ward Israel's concurrence with the provision of specific
non-lethal equipment to the Palestinians.

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Disengagement - Critical Phase After Evacuation of Settlers
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Once the settlers depart, the disengagement process
will enter a critical phase, according to Mofaz. Hamas or
other Palestinians could at that time attempt to penetrate
the settlements before the IDF pulls down settler homes. "We
do not want a confrontation with the Palestinians," Mofaz
said, adding that IDF forces will be busy packing equipment
left in settler homes into containers and then bringing them
out of Gaza. Mofaz estimated that the timeframe for the
destruction of the settlements -- once the last settlers have
been evacuated -- will be two to four weeks until completion
and the departure of the last IDF soldier from Gaza. Mofaz
said he anticipates that the IDF will be out of Gaza and the
northern West Bank settlements in October, much earlier than
the six months envisaged earlier.

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Egyptian-Israeli Negotiations
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7. (C) Mofaz and MOD Deputy Director General Amos Gilad
described in some detail the status of Israeli-Egyptian
negotiations on a protocol governing the deployment of
Egyptian forces along the border with Gaza (septel). Mofaz
and Gilad said the military talks are moving in the right
direction. Due to recent political requirements raised by
the Israeli opposition (e.g., Lapid of Shinui) and even some
in Likud, Gilad has been instructed to negotiate a side
letter with the Egyptians that puts to paper their verbal
commitment not to transfer arms to the Palestinians without
coordination with Israel. Mofaz said he expects such a
document by August 18, and recalled that he stressed to
Egyptian MOD Tantawi and EGIS Head Suleiman over the weekend
of August 13-14 that it will be important to conclude the
agreement within a week so that the IDF can leave Gaza and
the Philadelphi corridor as soon as possible. Mofaz
expressed his opinion that the Israeli Government will
approve the agreement, but (under an agreement that PM Sharon
struck with MK Yuval Steinitz) it must first be approved by
the Knesset before it can be signed and implemented.

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Gaza Crossings
--------------


8. (C) Mofaz recalled that the Israeli cabinet had decided
on two options for Gaza on customs and access issues:

-- keep the current customs system in place while allowing
people to move from Egypt to Gaza via a new crossing to be
built at Kerem Shalom at the intersection of Gaza, Egypt and
Israel, and moving goods via the Nizzana passage, farther
south on the Israel-Egypt border; or

-- abrogate the customs union (effectively creating one
customs system for Gaza and another for the West Bank),and
let the Palestinians control Rafah, but treat Karni (for
goods) and Erez (for people) as formal border crossings and
customs frontiers. Mofaz commented that this option would
require "deep" inspections by the Israeli side, and would run
against the direction of plans being discussed by QSE
Wolfensohn and PA Minister Dahlan, as it would have a
negative impact on the movement of people and goods between
Gaza and the West Bank.


9. (C) Mofaz indicated that he had discussed these Israeli
options with Dahlan, and he anticipates a follow-on
discussion "in the next week." A/S Welch asked whether Mofaz
had discussed the subject with the Egyptians. Mofaz replied
that they had not, but he anticipated that the Egyptians
would support "whatever Dahlan wants," which he expects will
be a bilateral, open passage at Rafah for goods and people.
Ambassador Kurtzer suggested that the GOI seek Egyptian views
directly, as the Egyptians also have interests: "Do not
assume they will do just what Dahlan wants." A/S Welch urged
Mofaz to use the Egyptians on this issue because they too
will not want to permit unrestricted access into Gaza. Mofaz
agreed that the GOI and the Egyptian EGIS share concerns
about arms smuggling and travel of "outside terrorists" to
and from Gaza.


10. (C) A/S Welch again urged Mofaz to look more closely at
the Rafah options with a view to designing a system that
might work, and reduce security risks. "Rafah is
symbolically very important," A/S Welch concluded, asking
Mofaz to take a look at how a third party might contribute to
customs and name-checking at Rafah. Mofaz replied that his
priority is to accomplish the deployment of 750 Egyptians
along the Egypt-Gaza border.

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Agreement on Rubble
--------------


11. (C) Mofaz complained that the Palestinians do not want to
sign the agreement on disposition of settler housing
demolition rubble that he, Dahlan and QSE Wolfensohn agreed
to recently. Mofaz described the parameters of the
agreement, noting that some rubble will go to Egypt and some
will be used for construction purposes in Gaza. Asbestos and
other dangerous material will be taken to Israel for safe
disposal. Mofaz said he will meet with Dahlan "within the
next week and we will close this issue."

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Worried about PIJ in the West Bank
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12. (C) Mofaz expressed concern about possible PIJ-initiated
suicide bomber attacks from Tulkarm and Jenin. He indicated
the IDF is taking serious measures to try to stop them.


13. (U) NEA A/S Welch has cleared this cable.

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