Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV4879
2005-08-08 12:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

NETANYAHU BECOMES SPOILER WITHOUT SPOILS AS

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004879 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2015
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ECONOMY AND FINANCE GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU BECOMES SPOILER WITHOUT SPOILS AS
DISENGAGEMENT MOVES FORWARD

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for
reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004879

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2015
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ECONOMY AND FINANCE GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU BECOMES SPOILER WITHOUT SPOILS AS
DISENGAGEMENT MOVES FORWARD

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for
reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's
dramatic August 7 resignation from government will not affect
implementation of the disengagement plan starting August 17.
It will also not bring down Prime Minister Sharon's
government since the opposition is not sufficiently united to
muster the votes to topple Sharon. Netanyahu's possible
motivations for resigning now are partly to oppose
disengagement in principle, but also to further his political
aspirations of challenging Sharon's leadership of Likud.
Netanyahu may be betting on disengagement's failure to reap
political benefits. Likud MKs, including supporters of
Netanyahu, have been in meetings and huddling in the
aftermath of Netanyahu's bombshell. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's surprising
resignation from government over his opposition to
disengagement during the August 7 Cabinet session without
offering an explanation, will likely not -- as Netanyahu
himself admitted in his August 7 press conference -- affect
the scheduled implementation of the disengagement plan August

17. This was made clear when the Cabinet went on to approve
the evacuation of three isolated settlements in Gaza by a
16-5 majority after Netanyahu left his resignation letter and
departed the Cabinet session. Anti-disengagement Likud
ministers Limor Livnat, Danny Naveh, Yisrael Katz, and Tzachi
Hanegbi voted against the evacuation, but did not indicate --
as settler leaders had hoped -- that they will follow
Netanyahu's example.


3. (C) Netanyahu's move does not signal any meaningful
threat to Prime Minister Sharon's government. The Knesset
opposition does not have the necessary unity to muster the
required 61 votes to bring down Prime Minister Sharon's
government in no-confidence motions. Sharon still enjoys a
combination of majority support from within and outside the
coalition to keep his government afloat at least through

disengagement and likely beyond. As the dust settles,
however, the looming question overshadowing the political
landscape, is what effect Netanyahu's resignation and
expected anti-disengagement activity will have on Sharon's
standing in Likud, including in any preparations for Likud
primaries. (Note: Septel examines economic repercussions of
Netanyahu's resignation. End note.)


4. (C) Netanyahu's long-anticipated split from Sharon's
government over disengagement signals Netanyahu's readiness
to do more than snipe at Sharon from within the government;
he is now portraying himself as a staunch opponent to
disengagement, and vanguard of the Likud's right-wing.
Within Likud, assessments vary as to how much power Netanyahu
now wields within the party, even within the more right-wing
Likud Central Committee (LCC). Likud MK and Netanyahu ally
Yuval Steinitz asserted August 7 on Israeli TV that support
for Netanyahu is growing within the LCC, within the Likud
Party, and within the Likud Knesset faction. Likud MK and
Sharon supporter Majallie Whbee, however, told Poloff August
8 that after Netanyhau resigned, LCC members actually
complained to Whbee that they do not like someone who "jumps
out" from the government. Whbee added that some LCC members
complained to him about the timing of Netanyahu's
resignation, noting that it is too late now to stop
disengagement. Whbee also noted that while the LCC is more
right-wing than Sharon, it does not represent the majority of
Likud voters. An August 8 poll released by Ma'ariv shows
that 51 percent of Likud voters support Sharon as Likud
leader, compared to 34 percent who support Netanyahu. Other
politicos and media pundits have portrayed the timing of
Netanyahu's resignation in a negative light, asserting that
Netanyahu was motivated more by political ambition than by
opposition to disengagement. According to an August 8 poll,
47 percent of the public believe that Netanyahu's move was
motivated by politics, rather than principle.


5. (C) Meretz/Yahad MK Avshalom Vilan assessed to Poloff
August 8 that Netanyahu actually wants disengagement to go
forward, bargaining that the plan will face problems that
Netanyahu can use against Sharon in the battle for Likud
leadership. In appealing to the right wing, Netanyahu will
be able to say that while he voted for disengagement, he had
no responsibility for it. Vilan underlined that Sharon's
political standing, especially within Likud, now depends on
how well the evacuation goes. Netanyahu, he commented, is
placing all his political bets on disengagement failing so
that he can reap the political benefits. In the meantime,
Sharon has seemingly bounced back after Netanyahu's
bombshell, quickly appointing Deputy Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert to temporarily serve as Finance Minister (septel),and
thereby calming the jittery stock markets. He has also
announced that Netanyahu's move will not affect his
disengagement timetable.


6. (SBU) As the political dust continues to settle, it is
already clear that Netanyahu's move has added fuel to the
anti-disengagement movement. Right-wing settler leaders are
already counting on Netanyahu's move to lead to swelling
numbers at a demonstration reportedly planned for August 11
in Tel Aviv.

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