Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV4829
2005-08-04 14:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: ISRAELI CABINET SET TO VOTE

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004829 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: ISRAELI CABINET SET TO VOTE
AUGUST 7 ON SETTLEMENT EVACUATION LOGISTICS

REF: TEL AVIV 4694

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004829

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: ISRAELI CABINET SET TO VOTE
AUGUST 7 ON SETTLEMENT EVACUATION LOGISTICS

REF: TEL AVIV 4694

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Cabinet is scheduled to vote August 7 on
the evacuation of at least one of the four groups of
settlements slated to be evacuated beginning August 17
pursuant to Prime Minister Sharon's disengagement plan. The
vote will take place at the end of a week during which tens
of thousands of disengagement opponents demonstrated against
the withdrawal plan along the Israel-Gaza border, requiring
the deployment of thousands of police and border guards to
block their entry into the Gaza Strip. Anti-disengagement
groups plan more demonstrations next week. While a June 6,
2004 Cabinet decision requires the Cabinet to approve each of
the four phases of evacuation before the next phase is
implemented, it is likely that the Cabinet will approve
several of the four phases of evacuation before disengagement
begins August 17. There is currently a clear majority of
15-16 of the 22 ministers -- buttressed by Labor Party
ministers' support -- to pass all of the phases (see reftel).
The political story behind the Cabinet's evacuation vote is
whether Sharon's rival, Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu,
will vote against the evacuation to further set himself up as
Likud's more right-wing alternative to Sharon. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Details of Cabinet Vote Unclear
--------------


2. (C) Aharon Lishanksy, Office of the Cabinet Secretary,
told Poloff August 4 that the August 7 Cabinet session agenda
lists only one item: evacuation of settlements according to
the disengagement plan. Lishanksy stressed that the action
agenda may only be decided upon August 7. Vice Premier
Shimon Peres' Deputy Director General for Administration Yona
Bartal told Poloff August 4 that the Cabinet vote will likely
be on just one group of settlements. Ministry of Justice
Knesset Liaison Paz Barnett told poloff August 4 that the IDF
and police will present evacuation implementation plans to

the Cabinet and that only then will the Cabinet decide on how
to proceed with the evacuation. Barnett said that it is
still unclear which combination of settlement groups the
Cabinet will vote to evacuate or if it will vote on all four
phases together at the upcoming Sunday session. According to
the Israeli media, the Cabinet will vote August 7 to evacuate
three isolated settlements in Gaza: Netzarim, Kfar Dorom, and
Morag. The Cabinet could then decide in the following weeks
on the next groups, but may not decide in which order those
settlements will be evacuated until close to the August 17
commencement date.


3. (C) The IDF reportedly is trying to maintain secrecy as
to the order in which the settlements will be evacuated.
Director of Strategic Coordination Staff in the Prime
Minister's Office BG (res.) Eval Giladi said in an August 4
radio interview that the IDF should have flexibility during
the withdrawal and that settlers who want to leave should be
allowed to leave. He noted, however, that he is "not sure if
would make sense to say on the radio what the plan is."

--------------
Cabinet Majority Assured
--------------


4. (C) Sharon is assured that at least 15-16 of the Cabinet
ministers will support whatever combination of phased
evacuation is proposed or an advance execution of the entire
plan in one "continuous phase." Several of the more
right-wing Likud ministers, and those who have opposed
disengagement from the beginning, are likely to vote against
any evacuation at the August 7 session, such as Likud
ministers Binyamin Netanyahu, Yisrael Katz, Danny Naveh,
Limor Livnat, and possibly Tzachi Hanegbi. Naveh reportedly
may vote in favor of evacuating the first group of
settlements in exchange for Cabinet approval of building a
new neighborhood in E-1, near Ma'ale Adumim (septel). While
Netanyahu voted with the majority in approving the phased
disengagement plan in June 2004, he will likely use any
deviation from that June 2004 decision to vote against the
evacuations on August 7. Barnett noted that "inside
politics" will be motivating Netanyahu. Netanyahu can argue
that the evacuation needs to be postponed until more of the
logistical details have been resolved, such as where to house
the evacuated settlers.


5. (C) The Cabinet vote on Sunday precedes the Cabinet's
August 9 consideration of the controversial 2006 budget, to
be presented by Netanyahu. Peres assistant Bartal said that
the Labor Party will meet before August 9 to discuss the
budget, and that the Labor ministers are likely to vote
against it.


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