Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV4269
2005-07-08 16:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

FINAL DECISION ON ARIEL SECURITY FENCE LIKELY NOT

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004269 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2010
TAGS: IS KPAL PREL XF ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS SETTLEMENTS
SUBJECT: FINAL DECISION ON ARIEL SECURITY FENCE LIKELY NOT
IMMINENT; FENCE ROUTING IN JERUSALEM REMAINS PROBLEMATIC

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

This cable has been cleared by ConGen Jerusalem.

-------------------
Ariel Security Fence
--------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004269

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2010
TAGS: IS KPAL PREL XF ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS SETTLEMENTS
SUBJECT: FINAL DECISION ON ARIEL SECURITY FENCE LIKELY NOT
IMMINENT; FENCE ROUTING IN JERUSALEM REMAINS PROBLEMATIC

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

This cable has been cleared by ConGen Jerusalem.

--------------
Ariel Security Fence
--------------


1. (C) Ambassador asked MOD Director General Amos Yaron
July 7 about press reports that the Israeli cabinet might
decide a new route for the separation barrier around the
Ariel bloc of settlements. Yaron responded that Prime
Minister Sharon is very unlikely to bring this issue to the
cabinet now, for fear that disengagement opponents will latch
onto it and create a government crisis. Yaron thought that
the decision on the Ariel barrier "finger" would not take
place until the GOI was deep into the disengagement process.
Yaron did confirm that the defense establishment has redrawn
the routing of the "fingers" around Ariel and Kedumim.
Whereas previously the barrier "fingers" encompassed both
Ariel and the settlements of Kedumim, Emmanuel and Karnei
Shomron, under the new proposal there are two separate
"fingers" that extend into the West Bank: one that goes east
to encompass the settlement of Ariel, and the other which
goes east from Alfe Menashe east to encompass Karnei Shomron,
Kedumim and the other small settlements in that salient.
Yaron said that, by creating these two "fingers", substantial
Palestinian contiguity had been created east of
Qalqiliya/Habla. On the other hand, the Alfe Menashe-Kedumim
"finger" would severely inhibit Palestinian movement from
Habla to the north. Yaron thought that this could be
resolved by building a tunnel for Palestinians under the
barrier in this area.


2. (C) Separately the Ambassador met with analysts from the
Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF),which has developed
sophisticated mapping software specifically related to the
fence. According to the ECF understanding, the barrier's
configuration around Ariel and Kedumim will have essentially
no impact on the amount of territory fenced off, amounting to
about 150 square kilometers. It will also have little impact
on the number of Palestinians captured inside the fence, with
about 2,000 in both models. Rather, according to ECF, it
appears that the concept behind the new configuration is to

take advantage of a new road planned between Alfe Menashe and
Emmanuel, parts of which would have fallen outside the fence
in the previous plan. This new road will serve the settler
community, while there may be plans to build a separate road
to serve the Palestinian community.

--------------
Jerusalem
--------------


3. (C) ECF analysts pointed to the emerging separation
barrier routing around Jerusalem as a far greater problem
than that around Ariel and Kedumim. They said that the
current plan for the Jerusalem barrier involves 130
kilometers of construction, only 4 kilometers of which
actually lie on the Jerusalem municipal boundary and only 12
kilometers of which are near the Jerusalem municipal
boundary. (ConGen note: The ConGen differs in this analysis,
estimating that 48 kilometers of the Jerusalem-area barrier
are built on or within 150 meters of Israel's 1967 expansion
of Jerusalem's boundaries. End note). The barrier is being
planned, according to ECF, to incorporate large areas outside
the expanded Jerusalem municipal limits. Whereas ECF said
that land totaling only 5 square kilometers inside the
municipal line has been left outside the barrier (excluding
Shufat refugee camp and Kfar Aqab) the barrier incorporates
95 square kilometers outside the expanded Jerusalem municipal
limits. The result of this plan will mean that the Jerusalem
barrier will encompass 210 square kilometers, only 56 square
kilometers of which are inside the green line.


4. (C) The ECF analysts pointed to two specific problems
with the barrier route.

-- In northeast Jerusalem, the barrier has been extended to
include the planned new settlement of Geva. What this
indicates, in their view, is an ultimate intention to connect
the northern Jerusalem settlements, including Geva, to the
settlements northeast of Jerusalem running from Adam to
Psagot. (ConGen note: Current barrier construction includes
Jerusalem settlements Pisgat Ze'ev and Neve Ya'akov, but not
Geva. The ConGen does not currently see evidence of the
expansion that ECF refers to. End note).

-- The second problem relates to the apparent intention to
create a belt of new "Israeli neighborhoods" within the
barrier whose design is to change the demographic balance in
Jerusalem. These new neighborhoods include Wadi al-Joz, Har
Homa, Kidmat Zion, plus two others. (ConGen note: While the
Wadi al-Joz settlement is still an unapproved idea, and
Kidmat Zion currently consists of only two buildings, Har
Homa is the fastest growing settlement in Jerusalem, with 830
housing units built since 2003 despite low housing demand and
only 15 percent occupancy within the settlement. End note).


5. (C) The ECF staff believes that Deputy Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert, who has been chairing an inter-ministerial
committee to deal with the routing of the barrier, will
present to the cabinet next week this plan and that the
cabinet may approve it. Olmert may recommend temporary
crossing points between Jerusalem and the West Bank, which he
will argue will not compromise future negotiations on the
status of the city. (Olmert confirmed this separately to the
Ambassador, saying that his proposal may meet strong
opposition from stalwalt Likud members who want to concretize
Israel's hold on the expanded Jerusalem with permanent
crossing points). According to ECF, Israeli "facts on the
ground" will continue to worsen the situation as new
settlement neighborhoods expand.

--------------
The South
--------------


6. (C) ECF believes that the Israeli defense establishment,
under pressure from Sharon, is considering a second barrier
north of the planned southern routing to defend the road
between Yattir and Kiryat Arba. There are some Palestinians
who will live in this enclosed area, which also includes
several Israeli settlements. The enclosed area itself
comprises 2.2 percent of the entire West Bank.

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