GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: VOTE ON DOOMED DISENGAGEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 004199

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: VOTE ON DOOMED DISENGAGEMENT
POSTPONEMENT BILL -- POSTPONED FOR TWO WEEKS

Classified By: By Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Yisrael Maimon, Cabinet Secretary, told Poloff July 4
that the Likud rebels decided late afternoon July 4 to
postpone for two weeks a preliminary vote on a bill that
would delay implementation of the disengagement plan by one
year. The bill's sponsor, right-wing National Religious
Party MK Zevulun Orlev, stated on the radio July 6 that the
vote is postponed so that he and other disengagement foes can
work to garner a Knesset majority for the bill. A strong
Knesset majority opposes the bill, so it is unlikely the
legislation will pass even after a two week period --
regardless of when the vote takes place or any statements by
Orlev. (Note: As of late afternoon July 5, the vote on this
legislation remained on the Knesset agenda, but according to
Eli Hazan, advisor to Coalition Whip Gideon Sa'ar, the item
can be pulled at any time, including right before the July 6
Knesset plenary begins. End note.)


2. (C) The real issue raised by a vote on the disengagement
postponement legislation, however, is not whether it will
pass, but whether Prime Minister Sharon will fire Minister of
Finance Binyamin Netanyahu for absenting himself from the
vote instead of voting with the government against it --
Netanyahu has stated firmly that he intends to be absent from
the vote. Maimon and others have indicated that it is
unlikely Sharon will fire Netanyahu, and that this is yet
another show of rivalry between the two, based on ego and
jockeying for advantage within the Likud Party in a prelude
to party primaries and the next elections. Maimon indicated
that Sharon's main interest now is implementing the
disengagement plan, and that perhaps Netanyahu's political
machinations are not of paramount concern. In the last major
showdown with Sharon in November 2004, Netanyahu backed off
his threat to quit the government if Sharon did not hold a
national disengagement referendum.


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