LABOR PARTY PRIMARIES APPROACHING THE STARTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 003894

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: LABOR PARTY PRIMARIES APPROACHING THE STARTING
GATE -- WITH AN OLD HORSE, A HIGH HORSE, A DARK HORSE, A
DEAD HORSE, AND A HORSE OF A DIFFERENT COLOR


Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: The Labor Party's 82-year old interim
chairman, Vice Premier Shimon Peres, is currently favored to
garner the highest -- but not an outright winning -- vote
total among the five contenders in Labor's June 28 party-wide
primaries, a so-far lackluster race that could nonetheless
decide the longevity of Prime Minister Sharon's
post-disengagement coalition. Peres is the only candidate
likely to push Labor to remain in the coalition after
disengagement, with the surprise second running candidate,
Amir Peretz, likely to push for leaving once disengagement is
completed this fall. Polls show no candidate likely to win
the necessary 40 percent of the votes to claim a first-round
victory, making a runoff election between Peres and the
runner-up likely. End summary.

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Horse of a Different Color Bursts Forth
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2. (C) With less than one week before the June 28 Labor
primaries -- unless they are postponed pending an
investigation into alleged voter registration irregularities
-- the media have devoted little front-page news to the
chairmanship race in which four Labor Party Knesset members
and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak will compete. According
to the latest Ma'ariv and Ha'aretz polls published June 15
and June 16, respectively, Peres and Peretz are the front
runners. Peres has around 30 percent support and Peretz some
20-plus percent, both substantially short of the 40 percent
plurality required to win, but enough ahead of other
candidates to make them the almost certain runners for a
second round election. Following is a snapshot of the
candidates:

-- "Old Horse": Octogenarian Vice Premier Shimon Peres
currently leads the polls with about 30 percent of the vote.
Peres is the only candidate likely to advocate remaining in
Sharon's coalition after disengagement. Peres' rivals
contend that he is harming the party by remaining in power
and that he should stand aside for the younger generation of
Labor Party leaders. Housing Minister Itzhak Herzog, himself
one of those leaders, recently told the Ambassador that he is
certain Peres will win the primary, even though Peres has not
developed a serious campaign.

-- "Horse of a different color": Amir Peretz, chairman of the
Histadrut labor federation, stands, surprisingly, in second
place, with over 20 percent of the vote and gaining. He will
push for Labor to leave the coalition after disengagement,
due primarily to his fierce opposition to Finance Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu's economic policy. Peretz appeals mainly
to the poor and to blue collar workers, but has also gained
support from unlikely sectors. At a recent event sponsored
by the Israeli Bar Association, Housing Minister Herzog told
the Ambassador that he noticed that the lawyers "loved
Peretz" and that Peretz made a "great speech" that covered
more than his usual Histadrut positions. Herzog referred to
Peretz as "the most interesting candidate," and suggested
that Peretz may make it to the runoff. Peace Now Director
and Labor Party member Yariv Oppenheimer told Poloff June 20
that he himself will support Peretz in the primaries because
Peretz addresses social issues and "brings something new" to
the party. Oppenheimer pointed out that Peretz is one of the
founders of Peace Now.

-- "High Horse": Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who
refuses to admit he had made any mistakes during his brief
tenure as prime minister, told the Ambassador recently that,
while he has strong support within the party apparatus, he
knows he has to garner more support among the electorate
itself. At least five of Labor's 21 MKs, including former
candidate for prime minister Amram Mitzna, have come out
publicly in support of Barak. According to Oppenheimer,
Barak will likely push Labor to leave the coalition after
disengagement in order to build Labor's identity as an
alternative to Likud. Pundits and politicos had pegged Barak
early in the Labor campaign as the most likely candidate to
succeed in a race against Sharon. Barak, however, has done
surprisingly poorly in polls. In a poll published June 12,
Barak came in last place among the five contenders, but has
since moved to third place. Barak told the Ambassador that
he hopes to improve his standing before the election. With
one week remaining, Barak reportedly is hoping that
contenders Matan Vilna'i and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer will leave
the race and support him.

-- "Dark Horse": Minister-Without-Portfolio Matan Vilna'i's
support has dwindled from 18 to 13 percent in the course of a
week. Herzog told the Ambassador that "everyone is waiting
for Vilna'i to emerge from the stable.... " Vilna'i, a
former general, told a visiting staffdel May 9 that Israelis
will look for new leadership in the post-disengagement
period, and presented himself as Labor's best candidate to
take on Likud. Vilna'i reportedly is the only candidate who
has not yet received the support of any other Labor MK.
While not Labor voters' top choice for party chair, in a
recent poll Vilna'i did top the list as "the most honest
candidate."

-- "Dead Horse": National Infrastructure Minister Binyamin
Ben-Eliezer -- "Fuad" -- is tallying some 10-11 percent
support in polls. Ben-Eliezer has appealed to the
Israeli-Arab population, which, according to the latest Labor
survey, represents 12 percent of Labor's approximately
117,000 members -- the party's largest voting bloc. Herzog
told the Ambassador that he would write Fuad off as a "dead
horse."
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Second Round Likely
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3. (C) Recent polls show that none of the Labor Party
candidates will garner more than 40 percent of the vote, the
minimum required to win in the first round. A second round
will thus follow between the two candidates with the largest
shares of votes. Herzog told the Ambassador June 2 that he
and Interior Minister Ofir Pines -- another young Labor
leader -- have not decided who they will support, and may
wait until the runoff before deciding.


4. (C) The candidates have not to date presented clearly
distinguishable campaign platforms and have resorted mainly
to personal attacks against one another. For example, the
major daily Ha'aretz reported June 14 that Barak, who
publicly said that he would steer away from a smear campaign,
referred to the other candidates in the race as "flies"
buzzing around Peres. The second round will likely draw out
differences in substance and strategy between the candidates.

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Membership Drive Investigated
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5. (C) Several Labor Party candidates and MKs, including
Barak and Pines, are calling for a postponement of the June
28 primaries pending the completion of an internal Labor
Party investigation into charges of irregularities in the
party's membership drive in certain localities. For example,
in one Israeli-Arab village in the Galilee, hundreds of
residents' signatures allegedly were forged and they were
signed up as Labor members without their knowledge. As of
June 20, newly-elected Labor Secretary General Eitan Cabel
had decided not to postpone the date, but mounting pressure
within Labor could compel Cabel to reconsider, especially if
more evidence surfaces of irregularities.

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