SHARON WINS NO-CONFIDENCE MOTIONS WITH NO EFFORT;

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 003749

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: SHARON WINS NO-CONFIDENCE MOTIONS WITH NO EFFORT;
ROAD TO DISENGAGEMENT REMAINS CLEAR


Classified By: Political Counselor Norman H. Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d
).


1. (C) Heavy media coverage of the Knesset's three failed
no-confidence motions June 14 -- and their incorrect
depiction as "defeats" for Prime Minister Sharon -- reflect a
slow news week, opportunistic efforts by disengagement
opponents to sow doubts with misleading data, and a prime
minister sufficiently comfortable in his near-term future
that he made no effort whatsoever to counter the motions.
Sharon continues to command majority Knesset support from
parties within and outside the coalition, and faces no
parliamentary or other opposition capable of or willing to
hinder disengagement. The possibility remains -- as it has
for more than a year -- that some combination of
anti-disengagement forces and left-wing parties that oppose
other aspects of Sharon's Likud-led government could
successfully force elections sometime between the end of
disengagement and the regular elections scheduled for
November 2006.


2. (C) With less that two-thirds of the Knesset
participating in the votes, the tallies fell far short of the
61-vote absolute majority required to bring down the
government. Three of the motions -- the two sponsored
separately by Shinui and Shas on rising societal violence,
and the one by the far right on problems in the educational
system -- received 37 votes or fewer out of a possible total
of 120. While the media also tried to paint as an
embarrassment the slightly higher 43-30 tally against
Sharon's remarks on government corruption, neither the
Knesset's consideration of the corruption issue nor Sharon's
remarks carried any importance.


3. (C) Anti-disengagement MKs followed the votes by calling
on the Knesset to dissolve itself and head to early
elections, although they clearly lack the 61-vote absolute
majority required by law. The head of the left-wing Yahad
party, Yossi Beilin, reaffirmed his long-stated intention to
seek early -- but only post-disengagement -- elections by
announcing that Yahad will seek a special Knesset session
after disengagement and during its October recess to consider
dissolving the Knesset and compellng early elections.
Foreign Policy Advisor to Vice Premier Shimon Peres Einat
Wilf told Econ/C that Peres and the Labor Party intend to
stay in the coalition at least through disengagement and are
not seeking early elections. Knesset members from various
parties commenting on Israeli radio early June 15 were
uniformly certain that elections would not take place prior
to completion of disengagement from Gaza and four identified
West Bank settlements, but declined to predict how long
Sharon's coalition would endure following disengagement. The
next major hurdle for the Sharon government, most agree, will
be the 2006 budget, which must be passed by March 31, 2006 to
avoid early elections, and which, like this year's budget,
will be heavily contested.

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