MFA NORTH AMERICA DIRECTOR DISCUSSES REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002803

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS GOI EXTERNAL GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: MFA NORTH AMERICA DIRECTOR DISCUSSES REGIONAL
POLITICS, SHARON'S DISENGAGEMENT NEEDS WITH NEA DAS DIBBLE

REF: TEL AVIV 02654

Classified By: Economic Counselor William Weinstein for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: MFA Deputy Director General for North
American Affairs Yoram Ben Zeev met with NEA DAS Liz Dibble
to discuss the future of Hizballah following the partial
withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon; the upcoming
Quartet meeting in Moscow; GOI internal disengagement
politics; and PA capacity to quell terrorist activity in the
long term. On Hezbollah, Ben Zeev said he believes the
organization is seeking a domestic Lebanese audience, and
questioned whether Hamas and PIJ elements in Damascus may
eventually relocate to Beirut. On the Quartet, Ben Zeev
expressed concerns that the organization is taking on a
"momentum of its own" beyond its historical adherence to U.S.
positions. On disengagement, he requested that the U.S. give
PM Sharon the "quiet" he needs to focus solely on
disengagement, including leaving aside criticisms on
settlement expansion for the time being. End Summary.

--------------
Lebanon, Syria, and the Future of Hizballah
--------------


2. (C) MFA Deputy Director General for North America Yoram
Ben Zeev told NEA DAS Liz Dibble May 6 that Israel shares the
USG,s estimation of possible "worst case scenarios" in
Lebanon following the withdrawal of Syrian troops, including
the concern that Syria may continue to cause trouble
including during the upcoming parliamentary elections. Ben
Zeev emphasized his view that Hizballah is now "trying to
find its mission," working harder to appeal to a domestic
Lebanese constituency and making "course
corrections" in its policies. "Hizballah still needs Syria,
but not as much as it once did," he said. Ben Zeev also
expressed fears that those elements of the Syrian government
that provide support to Hamas and PIJ may eventually move
from Damascus to Beirut. In his view, this would throw into
chaos the clear protocol Israel and Syria currently maintain,
in which the catalogue of potential actions and responses is
predictable and well known to both countries.

--------------
Sharon Needs Quiet from Quartet, U.S.,
to Carry Out Disengagement
--------------


3. (C) At the upcoming Quartet meeting, said DAS Dibble, the
parties will discuss the outcomes of Jim Wolfensohn,s visit
to Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, and the specifics of his
role as disengagement coordinator. Ben Zeev expressed the
GOI's "nervousness" that the Quartet, which has historically
been kept in check by the U.S., is "gaining a momentum of its
own." He said he feared the statement coming out of the
upcoming Quartet meeting in Moscow could be detrimental to PM
Sharon's ability to carry out disengagement. Ben Zeev stated
in particular that the U.S. must "ensure" the government of
Russia "leaves PM Sharon alone."


4. (C) Ben Zeev reported that during the recent meeting
between PM Sharon and Senators Frist and Lieberman, the Prime
Minister asked for "quiet" in which to focus solely on
disengagement. The U.S. must protect Sharon from internal
elements that wish to see his government topple, he said, by
withholding criticism on settlement activity. DAS Dibble
observed that the kind of "noise" from the international
community Sharon says he wishes to avoid is triggered by
surprise announcements such as the one regarding E-1. Ben
Zeev argued in response that Sharon must give the Israeli
public "red meat" by talking about expansion of the West Bank
settlements. The U.S. should recognize, however, that this
is primarily talk and very little action, he said. (Note:
Other GOI contacts report that planning for the E1 expansion
of Ma'ale Adumim continues apace, and NGO activists note that
the plan may be weeks away from public review, a stage of the
approval process from which it is difficult to backtrack.
See reftel. End note.)

--------------
Abbas Still Dissappoints
--------------


5. (C) Ben Zeev said that PM Sharon is "very upset" with PA
President Mahmud Abbas because of the latter's seeming
inability to carry through with actions to fight terror,
including seizing weapons and dismantling terrorist
infrastructure. Moreover, he said, Sharon believes even
Abbas' talk is not as firm as it should be. Ben Zeev
emphasized that the GOI takes Abbas' words very seriously,
and has been impressed with some of what he has said, but
that neither his actions nor words have met GOI expectations.


6. (C) DAS Dibble cleared this message.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
OLSEN