YOSSI BEILIN DESCRIBES USG ROLE TO CODEL LEVIN:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002260

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2015
TAGS: IS KWBG OREP PGOV PREL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS ISRAEL RELATIONS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT
SUBJECT: YOSSI BEILIN DESCRIBES USG ROLE TO CODEL LEVIN:
NOBODY IS AROUND!

Classified By: Charge d'affaires Gene A. Cretz for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Senator Carl Levin and his delegation met
on March 31 with Yahad Party Chairman Yossi Beilin. With
polite frustration, Beilin repeatedly and in detail expressed
his view that the U.S. is not doing enough to advance a
resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Beilin said
he was optimistic that the GOI's withdrawal from Gaza will
proceed smoothly, but remained concerned that the USG, the
GOI, and the PA are not planning for "the morning after." In
particular, Beilin said the USG and the GOI must act now to
show ordinary Palestinians that, after Gaza withdrawal,
progress toward a resolution of the conflict is possible.
Otherwise, he predicted, Palestinian frustrations will turn
into renewed violence. Beilin spelled out that, after Gaza
withdrawal, his party will pull back the "safety net" it now
provides to Sharon's coalition within the Knesset. END
SUMMARY.

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PROSPECTS FOR PEACE
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2. (C) Senator Levin, accompanied by staffers, four
constituents, and Embassy notetaker, met with Yahad Party
Chairman Yossi Beilin at the latter's offices in Tel Aviv
March 31. "I am not sure we are moving ahead" on the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict despite the present appearance
of progress, Beilin said. Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas
must show that the moderate way is bearing fruit, Beilin
said, but then questioned Abbas's ability and perhaps even
willingness to deliver quickly enough. The Palestinian
President is "the treasure" of the political moment, but only
sees himself as a transitional leader and would be happy to
quit, Beilin said, like last time. Abbas has even kept his
"same chauffeur, same secretary, same personal assistant"
rather than set up the machinery of a presidential office.
Moreover, Beilin added, the "impossible" relationship between
Abbas and Prime Minister Ahmad Quraya' is preventing Abbas
from working with the GOI on disengagement.


3. (C) The bottom line, according to Beilin, is that the GOI
and the PA alike are typically not doing enough to meet their
commitments. Abbas started down the right path on fugitives
and security forces reform, but has walked back from his
initial positions. The GOI has not met the commitments it
made to Abbas at the Sharm al-Sheik meeting, releasing too
few prisoners and dismantling too few checkpoints.


4. (C) A "referee," which Beilin defined as the USG, and
monitoring are the missing keys, Beilin said, but he
complained that "the referee" was dormant. He said his hope
that the second Bush administration would engage was proving
empty, and what he called the now-irrelevant dates in the
roadmap have not been and will not be changed. President
Bush declared he wanted a Palestinian state by 2008, Beilin
noted, but "nobody is around!"

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GAZA WITHDRAWAL
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5. (C) "For me," said the Yahad party chairman, "Gaza is
the beginning, and a precedent for continuing in the West
Bank. For Sharon, Gaza is the beginning and the end." For
Sharon to agree to a Geneva-like solution would be out of
character with his actions over the past 38 years. Abbas
rejects an interim solution because he believes it will
destroy Palestinian leverage by making the unresolved
conflict just another border dispute in world opinion.


6. (C) Right now, Beilin said, Gaza withdrawal provides a
substitute for a political horizon. After withdrawal,
Sharon's preference for a partial and interim solution will
collide with Abbas's desire for a complete and permanent
resolution. Without a political horizon, Beilin predicted,
Palestinian frustrations will boil over into renewed violence.


7. (C) Beilin said he was more optimistic about the
withdrawal itself. The GOI, which managed to absorb 35,000
Russian immigrants a month, can move 7,000 settlers without a
civil war, he said. Palestinian authorities are sending
mixed signals on the fate of assets such as housing and
greenhouses, but the GOI now sees the need to preserve them.
Beilin predicted that the assets will emerge intact.

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COALITION POLITICS
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8. (C) Beilin said that after disengagement Yahad will
withdraw the "safety net" it is holding under Sharon's
coalition, and Sharon understands this even though Beilin has
not said so publicly. Ticking off the current coalition
line-up, Beilin explained that, without Yahad's six votes, he
expects the government will fall, thus leading to early
elections. He predicted that Likud will split, putting
Labor, Yahad, the Arab parties and Shinui in a position to
win enough seats against the ultra-right parties, the
national religious parties, and the rightist Likud rump to
form a new government coalition. Beilin said he doubts that
even a wildly successful withdrawal would influence Sharon's
electoral prospects. Instead, he noted, polls show 43
percent of Israelis support Beilin's Geneva solution.
Moreover, Beilin said, unlike Labor, which is operating
inside Sharon's coalition, Yahad will benefit from the
independence it is exercising now. Beilin cited as examples
of this independence his party's opposition to Israeli
construction in the E-1 area between Jerusalem and Ma'aleh
Adumin, and its refusal to endorse Sharon's latest plethora
of ministerial nominees.

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