FM SHALOM EXPRESSES SKEPTICISM TO CODEL SAXTON ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002077

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2010
TAGS: PREL KWBG OREP IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS COUNTERTERRORISM
SUBJECT: FM SHALOM EXPRESSES SKEPTICISM TO CODEL SAXTON ON
ABBAS'S COMMITMENT TO DISMANTLE TERROR GROUPS

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a March 30 meeting with Codel Saxton and
the Ambassador, Foreign Minister Shalom expressed
dissatisfaction with what he called Palestinian President
Abbas's lack of effort to dismantle terrorist groups and the
recent turn of roadmap discussions toward final status
issues. He also discussed regional political changes,
including those in Iraq, and their positive effects, and
spoke extensively on his view of Syria's involvement in
Lebanon. He said he was optimistic that change is
forthcoming in Lebanon and negatively described Syria's
involvement in that country and in promoting terrorist acts
in Israel via Hizballah and Hamas. Shalom touched briefly on
what he said is Iran's involvement with these terrorist
groups as well, and expressed worry over Iran's possible
attainment of nuclear weapons. He also expressed unhappiness
over the State Department's travel advisory for Israel. END
SUMMARY.

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Disengagement and the Roadmap
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2. (C) Stressing that Abbas can do more for peace, Foreign
Minister Silvan Shalom expressed to Codel Saxton
dissatisfaction with Abbas's attempts to work with extremist
groups in Palestinian society. He said that Abbas "is not
willing to forget them or to dismantle them; he is trying to
achieve peace with them and that's unacceptable." Individual
terrorists, he said, therefore will retain the ability to
"blow up" the peace process. Shalom said that the number of
recent successful bombing attacks in Israel is low not
because Abbas has been successful in preventing them - or has
even tried -- but because Israel's own security forces have
been successful in catching and stopping suicide bombers.


3. (C) Moving to the disengagement plan, Shalom said that
settler evacuations will not take long. He said Israel is
coordinating with both Egypt and the U.S., and with the
Palestinians "in some way." He was critical, however, of
what he said were many negative statements coming from the
Palestinian leadership. As an example, he said, Abbas
offered to split with Hamas the assets and buildings that the
Israelis will leave in Gaza after disengagement.


4. (C) Shalom reiterated Israeli support for the roadmap. At
the same time, he stressed that the GOI wants to follow it
step by step, and not "jump to final stage issues we still
disagree about," citing the status of Jerusalem and
settlements as examples.

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Regional Issues
--------------


5. (C) Shalom assessed that the situation in Iraq, while
still an ongoing process, will soon stabilize. He said the
world is much better without Saddam Hussein, and pointed to
Saddam's fall from power, Arafat's death, and Qaddafi's
change in attitude as reasons for optimism about the region's
future.


6. (C) Shalom condemned Iran for supporting Hizballah, citing
what he claimed have been Iranian shipments of weapons to
Hizballah through the Damascus airport. He called Hizballah
the long arm of Iran, and charged that it has taken over
Saddam's role of giving money to families of suicide bombers.
Shalom asserted that Iran -- through Hizballah -- has
financed the creation of 60 new terror cells within Hamas.
The necessary response to global extremism, he said, is to
"empower the moderates and alienate the extremists." He also
expressed concern over Iran's nuclear program.

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What the Future Holds for Lebanon and Syria
--------------


7. (C) Rep. Saxton commented that many Americans are
"energized" by the possible cause and effect relationship
between the transition in Iraq and recent events in Lebanon.
Shalom expressed optimism for Lebanon's future and predicted
that the Lebanese people will recover their freedom after 30
years of occupation. Noting that the current President Assad
did not, unlike his father in 1991, support U.S. intervention
in Iraq, Shalom said that Assad "made a huge mistake by not
following his dad's support of the U.S.," and since then he
has made many mistakes, one after the other.


8. (C) Shalom attributed what he characterized as the new
courage of the Lebanese people to demonstrate against Syria
to three events: the Iraq elections, President Mubarak's
opening of Egypt's presidential elections, and the
above-noted leadership changes in Iraq, the PA, and Libya.
He commented that Syria made a mistake, and angered the
French, when it pushed the Lebanese parliament to amend the
constitution so that President Lahoud could run for a third
term. France sponsored UNSCR 1559, he said, because
President Chirac wanted Hariri to be the next Lebanese
president.


9. (C) While Shalom predicted that Syria will be compelled to
leave Lebanon very soon due to grassroots Lebanese movements
and American and French pressure, he thought Assad would try
to stay as long as possible. Syrians, he said, traditionally
consider Lebanon to be an extension of southern Syria.
According to Shalom, this is why Syria never opened an
embassy in Beirut, and did not allow the Lebanese to do so
either in Damascus. He said that Syria is now trying to buy
time and that it's more important to Syria "to stay in
Lebanon than to have the Golan Heights." Other reasons given
by Shalom for Syria's fight to stay in Lebanon are that 20
percent of Syrian labor works in Lebanon; Syria receives much
income from operating a drug industry in Lebanon; and Lebanon
is home to Hamas and Hizballah training camps. He said that
Hizballah will do anything to protect Syria's engagement in
Lebanon, which is why it has been arranging Lebanese mass
demonstrations in favor of Syria.


10. (C) Shalom drew parallels between Hizballah and Hamas.
He expressed concern about Hamas trying to emulate the
Hizballah model of an organization with separate political
and terrorist wings. He applauded the U.S. Congress for its
assistance in trying to convince Europeans that Hizballah is
a terrorist group and stated that Israel has been working
hard to do the same.

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U.S. Travel Advisory
--------------


11. (C) Shalom called for the State Department to soften its
travel advisory for Israel, calling the step necessary for
Israel to gain revenue from tourism and foreign business
investment. He said a new travel advisory would underline
the emergence of a new era in Israel, one in which he claimed
that Israelis have succeeded in normalizing relations with
the Palestinians.


12. (SBU) Members of the Codel included Representatives Jim
Saxton and Geoff Davis, professional staff member Tom Hawley,
and Major Michael Hopkins of the U.S. Army.


13. (U) The Codel did not clear this message.

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